Crunch time! - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

anu

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1001

RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol

Quote from: Dafar on October 02, 2014, 11:15:46 AM

Anyone with a brain would not take you seriously. Not because you think bitcoin is going to $0 (lol) but you are not convincing at all.. you sound like a dumbass, an annoying one too

No intention to censor, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Everyone who claims BTC goes to zero owes this extraordinary evidence. Otherwise they should be ignored.

mmortal03

legendary

Activity: 1762

Merit: 1010

Speaking of crunch time, a diff chart subtracting the current daily price from a year ago would be interesting. If we don't take off pretty soon, it will begin to approach zero pretty rapidly here. We're about a month and a half away from going negative after 365 days.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

OTC trades?

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Quote from: EuroTrash on October 02, 2014, 11:13:25 AM

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 10:41:14 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on October 02, 2014, 10:40:04 AM

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 10:17:53 AM

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

I learnt about bitcoin on November 2011 (but invested much later) so I wasn't there to see the carnage and desolation of the time.
I have been through the April 2013 bubble and took out 100% profit in fiat (and some sanity back) in the aftermath. I have seller's remorse, just a tad. Then during this last bubble pop I have had more success trading, but the prolonged bear market has caught me off guard twice in a row. Then I stopped trading. I still have more coins than I had when the November bubble popped.
So far my reason for staying bearish lies in the coincidence between now and 2011 that I see in this chart I made below.

In a way I made my own cult. It's called "cult of the red line". I believe that when the red line will rise above the blue one, then the blue one will have to follow and bring BTCUSD up. For now my cult says that there still are too many coins around and not enough takers.

Fascinating chart. Something seems to have happened around the start of the year causing a divergence which has persisted ever since. Could there have been a rise of off chain transactions through use of centralised wallet services or something to account for this? Newer services like circle work like this I think. Amazing correlation until this year though. It will be interesting to see how the chart goes forward and if there is a convergence in the future signalling another bull run. Thanks for posting.

Edit: it only really closely matched during 2012 and 2013, though seems to be correlated with price rises very well..definitely one to watch

vipgelsi

legendary

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1001

Bitcoin to zero? Nope.

Dafar

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1000

dafar consulting

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 11:07:23 AM

Quote from: Dafar on October 02, 2014, 11:05:01 AM

Quote from: piramida on October 02, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH

So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.

I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich

You turned bearish all of a sudden! I think a drop that low will do bitcoin some serious damage in terms of adoption and will delay things by another year or possibly to the next halving.

anyone has brain can see this coming! you know it too but don't want to admit it
so you decide to bury your head in the sand and continue to fool others to buy your bags!

Anyone with a brain would not take you seriously. Not because you think bitcoin is going to $0 (lol) but you are not convincing at all.. you sound like a dumbass, an annoying one too

EuroTrash

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 10:41:14 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on October 02, 2014, 10:40:04 AM

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 10:17:53 AM

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

I learnt about bitcoin on November 2011 (but invested much later) so I wasn't there to see the carnage and desolation of the time.
I have been through the April 2013 bubble and took out 100% profit in fiat (and some sanity back) in the aftermath. I have seller's remorse, just a tad. Then during this last bubble pop I have had more success trading, but the prolonged bear market has caught me off guard twice in a row. Then I stopped trading. I still have more coins than I had when the November bubble popped.
So far my reason for staying bearish lies in the coincidence between now and 2011 that I see in this chart I made below.

In a way I made my own cult. It's called "cult of the red line". I believe that when the red line will rise above the blue one, then the blue one will have to follow and bring BTCUSD up. For now my cult says that there still are too many coins around and not enough takers.

sgbett

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1087

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: EuroTrash on October 02, 2014, 10:14:42 AM

Quote from: piramida on October 02, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH

So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

Methinks: if a certain market bottom (or top) is taken for granted by the majority, it likely isn't granted to happen at all.
In fairness I still see a likely bottom around 250 but I don't discount a quick dip below 200.
Not that I'm going to take any coin out of cold storage because of this.

people used to say bottom was $1000 $900,$800,$700,$600,$500,$400,$300..
guess what? some day you will say the bottom is $0.01 and still goes wrong because bitcoin is going to nowhere but down lower and lower then the final capitulation

{debunked chart}

Dafar

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1000

dafar consulting

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 11:07:23 AM

Quote from: Dafar on October 02, 2014, 11:05:01 AM

Quote from: piramida on October 02, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH

So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.

I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich

You turned bearish all of a sudden! I think a drop that low will do bitcoin some serious damage in terms of adoption and will delay things by another year or possibly to the next halving.

I've always been bearish for 2014

But I'm bullish for bitcoin as a whole... I just don't know when the bulls will come out. I doubt it will be this year

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Dafar on October 02, 2014, 11:05:01 AM

Quote from: piramida on October 02, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH

So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.

I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich

You turned bearish all of a sudden! I think a drop that low will do bitcoin some serious damage in terms of adoption and will delay things by another year or possibly to the next halving.

Dafar

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1000

dafar consulting

Quote from: piramida on October 02, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH

So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

That's how it's always been so far.... I am willing to bet you this time around we may actually dip below the previous $260 ATH and this will bring REAL fear even to supporters like you.

I agree that $260 should be a hard bottom, but things have been different, bitcoin is unpredictable and sometimes the fear needs to run deep before the next few lucky people can become rich

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: maker88 on October 02, 2014, 10:49:02 AM

Quote from: fonzie on October 02, 2014, 06:15:31 AM

OH it´s sgbett again tryin to spread doom & gloom and hopes to achieve getting even more cheap coins through it. FUD spreader! Angry

Newbies be careful, he is a well known bear troll on BCT who wants you to sell even lower. We do NOT have to visit the april low, don´t believe a word.

Says the asshole whose been spreading doom an gloom FUD for 5 months...

Fonzie is clearly being sarcastic here, he likes to imitate bulltards and bearturds for some reason.

As for the OP, I believe we'll either see a real capitulation into the $200s or a rounded bottom formation around $350-370. A break below the previous April low will almost certainly see a sharp drop towards the old ATH at $265. My fingers are already itching to buy at this point but I'm going to be patient and see if we go below $300 and then I will definitely buy some.

b rock

newbie

Activity: 1

Merit: 0

Quote from: nanobrain on October 02, 2014, 09:05:34 AM

Nice analysis SG; I tend to agree with what you say. The market demands answers and fiddling around sideways is not providing any, so it is indeed 'crunch' time.

Someone's patience will snap and we either retest support in the 340's or we break out for real. For me, much of this will do with timing: the monthly cycle tends to suggest more positive moves at the beginning of the month but the concept of the weekend dip is also valid. So, if we can maintain the 370 - 380 range until Monday/Tuesday next week I think something positive may happen. CLearly that is a significant "if".

I totally agree with you. I haven't bought a bit coin in over a year. I used them for buying things though. After missing that great run last year I decided to keep an eye on it to see if the opportunity to get in on a run presented itself. I would be buying right now it just so happens I have money tied up in other things. I know I probably don't qualify for any loans on here so I will be watching closely, hoping it holds off another week.

mano21

newbie

Activity: 55

Merit: 0

I think once we hit 299 a rally will start. There is zero confidence in the markets, price is dropping every day.

Minders dgaf and will sell at any price.

maker88

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 10:32:30 AM

Quote from: sgbett on October 02, 2014, 09:54:27 AM

Quote from: piramida on October 02, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH

So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

I think that last point is a lot more significant right now than one might think at first glance. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

In agreement. Problem is there is a big price range from where we are now to a potential final capitulation bottom that falllling et al want to buy in at!

The way I look at it is: this isn't the end of bitcoin it is simply a transient bear market as part of a larger bull market. Buying here is therefore great value even if I cannot perfectly time the bottom, which will only become clear on a chart from the future.

i don't want to buy your bags not even one, you can keep it and watch your money lossing everyday

HOWEVER, stop fooling people to buy in this ponzi pyramid schemes!

Lossing is not a word. You'd think with all the money you've made shorting bitcoin and getting paid to troll this forum everyday that you'd be able to afford a dictionary and learn English.

maker88

sr. member

Activity: 336

Merit: 250

Quote from: fonzie on October 02, 2014, 06:15:31 AM

OH it´s sgbett again tryin to spread doom & gloom and hopes to achieve getting even more cheap coins through it. FUD spreader! Angry

Newbies be careful, he is a well known bear troll on BCT who wants you to sell even lower. We do NOT have to visit the april low, don´t believe a word.

Says the asshole whose been spreading doom an gloom FUD for 5 months...

EuroTrash

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

(usual stuff and bubble graphs and we are going to zero)

Wow, that was the quickest ignore ever.

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Quote from: EuroTrash on October 02, 2014, 10:40:04 AM

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 10:17:53 AM

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

Interesting. Were you around in 2011? Does this feel like that in terms of rock bottom sentiment/trolling etc?

EuroTrash

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: inca on October 02, 2014, 10:17:53 AM

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

No. Coins in cold storage. Stopped trading a couple of months ago. My coin count is unaffected since then.

inca

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1000

Quote from: sgbett on October 02, 2014, 09:54:27 AM

Quote from: piramida on October 02, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH

So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

I think that last point is a lot more significant right now than one might think at first glance. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

In agreement. Problem is there is a big price range from where we are now to a potential final capitulation bottom that falllling et al want to buy in at!

The way I look at it is: this isn't the end of bitcoin it is simply a transient bear market as part of a larger bull market. Buying here is therefore great value even if I cannot perfectly time the bottom, which will only become clear on a chart from the future.

Topic: Crunch time! - page 2. (Read 3914 times)