Topic: Crunch time! - page 3. (Read 3975 times)

Do you have an active short position eurotrash? I only ask because you remained extremely vocal and bearish during the paypal spurt back up to 450.

Methinks: if a certain market bottom (or top) is taken for granted by the majority, it likely isn't granted to happen at all.
In fairness I still see a likely bottom around 250 but I don't discount a quick dip below 200.
Not that I'm going to take any coin out of cold storage because of this.

Best time to buy now and hold until halving.

I think that last point is a lot more significant right now than one might think at first glance. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds!

Funny that the market takes so long to find a bottom while we here already established long ago, empirically, that the bottom is right above the previous rally's ATH So I've known since January that we will bottom out above $260, and also known that we'll stop above $32 last April.

How much will be the gap between actual bottom and the previous ATH is an unknown in the equation, determined by how this reverse (also known as "dutch") auction for cheap coins will unroll and how low people with money will allow it to drop.

Nice analysis SG; I tend to agree with what you say.  The market demands answers and fiddling around sideways is not providing any, so it is indeed 'crunch' time. 

Someone's patience will snap and we either retest support in the 340's or we break out for real. For me, much of this will do with timing: the monthly cycle tends to suggest more positive moves at the beginning of the month but the concept of the weekend dip is also valid.  So, if we can maintain the 370 - 380 range until Monday/Tuesday next week I think something positive may happen.  CLearly that is a significant "if".

Newsflash. We are visiting it now. Hence the title "crunch time". Do keep up!

If you pay attention you'll see I haven't said anything about what's going to happen just shared some speculation about what has happened.

Trolls are becoming so rabid that they don't even read before shouting you down  

The question is how relevant this is - if anyone who matters actually reads this forum. Even if - the "Bitcoin is doomed" meme should wear out. 9/2011 Bitcoin had "The rise and fall". 7/2013 - it was dead then. Now its dead again. I am pretty sure the Bitcoin story will end at least 3 times until 2020 if you listen to trolls.

OH it´s sgbett again tryin to spread doom & gloom and hopes to achieve getting even more cheap coins through it. FUD spreader! 
Newbies be careful, he is a well known bear troll on BCT who wants you to sell even lower. We do NOT have to visit the april low, don´t believe a word.

I don't trade, so I don't do a lot of what folks would probably call TA, but I do think that past price can give you some information about market participants psychology.

In the past each run up has typically been followed by a period of bottom discovery. A process which seems to be unfolding again. This is my take on whats been going on.

1. Profit taking

The ATH is in, when panic buying is finally overtaken by profit taking. This first big move usually sets the ball park for where the bottom will eventually be and this time looks to be no exception. We had three ("dead cat") bounces in december, each making lower lows. The final one we settled into the long steady decline which seeks to discover base support. This looked to have been found mid april with a capitulation sell to mid 360s. Bottom fishers pushed the price back up but the major downtrend was not ready to resolve until mid may.

2. Attempted break out

The triangle resolved, and we broke out to the upside, there wasn't really enough volume to support this move though, and as it ran out of steam we resumed the downtrend.

3. Continuation

The unconvincing breakout says to me that there was still plenty of downside left unexplored. Although we had visited lows a few months prior, the euphoria of the previous ATH lingered and sentiment was never really that bad. There was nothing like the deluge of "bitcoin is doomed" posts we are seeing now. I think thing that niggled at people's minds was the big question mark over whether the April low was really the bottom?

4. Unconfirmed

The only way to surely know something is to test it, and the market demands answers. I think we have to revisit that low and test it conclusively. We need to do it whilst sentiment is at a low (unlike in april, where false hope may have terminated the capitulation early?) only then will the market have decided whether we need to test new lows, or whether it is happy that mid 360s is a bad is it will get.