Crypto is more like “a psychological experiment than a serious investment" - page 4.

Sahyadri

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Quote from: FuninUSA on April 15, 2018, 02:27:17 AM

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while," said Shiller.

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast. The cryptocurrency hurtled above $1,000 in early 2017 after trading at less than a $1 at the beginning of the decade. It even hit an all-time high north of $20,000 in mid-December. (recommend FuninUSA for updated data about cryptocurrency)

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling. Prices dipped below $7,000 earlier this month.

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh

These are very wise words said by professor and are in line with my definition of bitcoin. Yes, people are making lot of money from it and it is indeed a psychology experiment. But coming back to conventional trading, people often do pump and dump over there too in form of inside trading. There have been so many frauds linked to insider trading that government had to run a crackdown on those. We all should give more time to this market to become more stable and then we can re evaluate whether it is still a psychology experiment or not.

laracastvue

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Quote from: FuninUSA on April 15, 2018, 02:27:17 AM

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while," said Shiller.

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast. The cryptocurrency hurtled above $1,000 in early 2017 after trading at less than a $1 at the beginning of the decade. It even hit an all-time high north of $20,000 in mid-December. (recommend FuninUSA for updated data about cryptocurrency)

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling. Prices dipped below $7,000 earlier this month.

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh

Its normal because there are different occurence on the entire nation and it can affect the market positively or negatively just like how the governments is reacting to cryptocurrency today.

gantez

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Quote from: berrygood on April 19, 2018, 12:28:08 PM

I think it is seen as bubble because it is not used as currency, it is hodl rather than spend coin so the price rises in the long term.

In my own reason, I think it is called a bubble because they feel it does not occupy a reality for them and won't stand for long. It is not because it is held and even if it is held in the wallet, it is eventually converted to fiat and it is money.

Meanwhile, I'm not surprised if economist refer to it that way though.

pleght

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I strongly agree with this.Thanks to bitcoin I made a lot of power in psychology.I used to be very excited.I could forgive this excitement.I've been earning since I could.

el kaka22

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Quote from: orions.belt19 on April 17, 2018, 08:48:30 PM

He's probably trying to say that Bitcoin is only a figment of one's imagination, making it psychological. I don't see where he gets it from and what makes him think that Bitcoin has no application in computer science, but it's obvious that he lacks knowledge about bitcoin. Many even suggest that it's the other way around and that bitcoin has nothing to do with economics but is more technological because it involves coding. Before making such statements, he should do his homework first.

If he considers bitcoin as a figment of imagination, then fiat in cash is also a figment of imagination. The problem with this set of people is they look on the outside and judge based on that.

The fact that they cannot see the real value from the little and unnecessary hype in price that happened last year has made them to now think everything that goes up hugely and come back down hugely is a bubble. The value was hyped and that might be considered a bubble, and the aftermath is what we are experiencing, but calling bitcoin itself a psychological experiment with no real value is just dumb.

I am making transactions to my merchants globally within split of second without a third party, which is a value even the fiat system could not give. Maybe he should ask those in Zimbabwe and Venezuela how they perceive bitcoin.

amishmanish

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Quote from: European Central Bank on April 19, 2018, 10:01:12 AM

--snip--
hopefully before everyone gets bored and goes away there are gonna be some very compelling real use cases that attracts a large amount of people who have a genuine purpose for it. if not then things could get a little rocky.

There there.. Why such gloom?? He is Professor Shiller. He is just preparing the background to start shilling bitcoin..LOL..

And yeah, we do need people to find real use but I don't think enough people are going to get bored. Interest in money or promise of riches doesn't get subdued so easily. Even if the majority loses interest, there'll still be a core group of people who will find the idea of p2p transactions worth exploring. And then there is the technology itself. A lot of Computer majors are going to show continued interest in this for a pretty long while.

pawanjain

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Nothing lasts forever

Yes, I agree with your wording that crypto is related to a psychological aspect also, but it will not be right to say that it is related to psychological aspects alone because crypto market is really big and people come here when they are in amateur level and then they practice enough to make some profit and by this way they slowly moves towards the experts level in the market and so here even the manipulation is also playing a major role which indicates us that crypto is really a serious investment if you take it seriously. Here the people have already earned millions of profits from the crypto market and still the counting is going on. And the earning part depends on the investor's psychology, capability, and on his trading skills like he manage the trades.

justspare

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Quote from: TUGUANL on April 19, 2018, 04:29:28 AM

Indeed, I feel that as long as it is a transactional investment, it is a psychological experiment, because all investment operations in the trading category are personal psychological battles.

We can relate it to the decision making thing. Either it is trading or investing, people have to involve the emotional balance for better results. But majority of the traders and investors don’t have that grip to control their mind. For that reason, their decision making power become paralyzed and the results are totally damaging. This is a tremendous psychological experiment.

AbyssLagiaz

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Psychological Experiment? Like how we behave as its price move within the property of being unstable, we are like being monitored or observed by ourselves on how we react on the growth of our investment. There are good green gains where we could act more in greedy way or act more of a wise and careful trader. This is why there are panics happening in here. It is simply their behavior on crashes, while being pessimistic at the same time. I'm pretty sure this is both experiment and a serious investment.

berrygood

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I think it is seen as bubble because it is not used as currency, it is hodl rather than spend coin so the price rises in the long term.

darewaller

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Quote from: dogandogru on April 17, 2018, 04:52:08 PM

Yes investing in crypto market involves a psychological aspect also. But it’s wrong to address crypto only as a psychological experiment. It’s much more than that. I think crypto is definitely a serious investment because it needs a lot of experience and exposure to the market to trade profitably. Only experimenting with it will not yield favorable results. On the hand how much profit a trader can earn depends on the psychology of the investor like how he responds to the losses, etc.

Sometimes, I always wonder if these so called professors decided to limit their level of knowledge for a reason or they have just decided to leave their brains in the library most of the time when they are about to utter stuffs like this. Sure, what we had last year was a bubble but that does not make bitcoin in itself a bubble.

It has real life value and that should be based on real demand, not just because some people are looking for ways to get rich overnight. If we are referring to psychology here, human's greed should be what he should go pay attention to rather than uttering nonsense.

Nahl

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some of people might be called bitcoin as psychological experiment because our mentally is tested here that volatility of the price always being the common thing in crypto world because we even never know when the price starting to fall and when the price starting to rise up and for those who don't have good mentally they will never last long to investing at bitcoin

hugeblack

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But who said that Bitcoin is a serious investment. Bitcoin is a way of transferring money from P2P as well as being a currency at the same time.
If Bitcoin is not an investment tool "serious investment" from which it draws its high value?
The strength of the algorithm built on it, the trust of users and the willingness of people to buy Bitcoin are the reasons why bitcoin sold with this high price. This high price is what turned it into an investment tool.
It is not expected to end any of the factors that made the Bitcoin valuable so there is no risk of a return to zero, but this is does not mean it is a powerful investment tool.

European Central Bank

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the tulip mania thing is soooo damn tired, but overall i think he's right.

the only thing fueling this is the desire to sell for more than you paid for it. that's why 99% or more of the people here are here. hardly anyone understands it or why it's important.

hopefully before everyone gets bored and goes away there are gonna be some very compelling real use cases that attracts a large amount of people who have a genuine purpose for it. if not then things could get a little rocky.

jseverson

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Quote from: Hydrogen on April 17, 2018, 05:52:52 PM

Quote from: FuninUSA on April 15, 2018, 02:27:17 AM

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bolded: it sounds like Robert Shiller is claiming blockchain has no real world application in computer science, security, finance or otherwise legitimate software engineering fields. Almost as if Shiller doesn't realize shipping firms and many others are utilizing blockchain technology in ledgers and banks are being forced to rollout faster transactions with lower fees to better compete with bitcoin, after decades of industry wide stagnation. Perhaps this serves as a real world example why armchair economists should not comment on things they do not understand or have experience with.

I'd say interpreting it like that is a stretch. He was talking about cryptocurrencies specifically, and while it is a product of computer science, it's more of an application of a technology rather than the technology, which is the blockchain. He's also probably commenting about its effect as a speculative asset on people (as evidenced by his theory that it's a bubble and a mania), rather than its application as a technology -- in which case, he's correct that it cannot be explained by computer science. Even the most rabid Bitcoin fan can't deny that it's being treated more like a speculative asset/investment vehicle rather than its intended use of a currency by most people, so it's not like his opinion doesn't hold water.

Not that I agree with him of course, but this argument has already been beaten to death by other traditional economists and some very influential people on both sides of the fence. I personally don't believe it's a fad nor a bubble, but only time will really tell who's correct.

carlisle1

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Quote from: RamonBTC on April 17, 2018, 05:11:05 PM

Do you know why most of the time educated man is physically and mentally absence in reality? Because they have a world of its own. This is why most of the time they’re outdated and technologically ignorance. They’re mostly using book rather than ebooks or computers. Not all, but most of them.

If this man is my professor I would rather home study than hearing lectures that is in old fashion.

I hate those who give an expert opinion on things they don’t know or close minded because of self interest. Most probably he invested in stock market and find bitcoin as a threat.

Youre getting harsh to the old man,lets show some respect as we dont know the man will be gone for tomorrow lol..

This is why i hate reading those "damn expert opinion"because they talked as if they really know everything and what comes to theyre mind will become reality..

Now in listening to my instincts atleast if i fail i have no one to blame..

Mpamaegbu

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Once a man, twice a child!

Well, Shiller may be right. The whole blockchain thing started as an experiment (psychologically) by Satoshi. But we can't say it is still driven by mere psychology now as several investments have taken to the blockchain tech and are achieving results. It is an investment but surely it will take more years for this to sync and sink in with people. Cryptocurrency is the new business module and just like what the E-mail did to the postal services, it will expectedly do same to banks.

torch2121

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I myself I don't believe that Crypto is a psychological experiment. Psychological maybe because of the volatility of Bitcoin. As the exchange rate goes up it also has bear trend. That is why you have to be good at hodl. For you not to lost your investment we have to be good at hodl. Check the flow, check the market, set your time frame and see when is the right time to exchange to have a profit. For me I'm seeing it as a investment. I always set my goal as I invest. I think it is not right to compare Bitcoin to tulip mania. Bitcoin is Bitcoin, we are all winners here.

Palmerson

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Live cams shows pimped with cryptocurrency

Quote from: TUGUANL on April 19, 2018, 04:29:28 AM

Indeed, I feel that as long as it is a transactional investment, it is a psychological experiment, because all investment operations in the trading category are personal psychological battles.

Any financial instrument has a psychological impact on participants. All that is associated with the receipt of prizes or winnings or income due to psychological stress. This is how the human psyche works. Therefore, a good investor can only be a person with a stable psyche. But bitcoin attracts many different people. Therefore, we often witness panic in the market.

audaciousbeing

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Quote from: FuninUSA on April 15, 2018, 02:27:17 AM

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while," said Shiller.

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast. The cryptocurrency hurtled above $1,000 in early 2017 after trading at less than a $1 at the beginning of the decade. It even hit an all-time high north of $20,000 in mid-December. (recommend FuninUSA for updated data about cryptocurrency)

A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment. But Shiller would still like to see it as a psychology experiment. “It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department,” He said.

Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling. Prices dipped below $7,000 earlier this month.

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh

For thoughts like this, the only explanation would be based on perception and there are some valid assumptions made here but one thing I have come to know is that aside from the Tulip Mania in the 17th Century that he made reference to, since I was not there and haven't read any literature on it, I have not seen any ponzi scheme that have survived for a decade and covered the amount of grounds that bitcoin covered in such short time. The most successful of them have been the one that spends one year while others crashed in a matter of months.

On the issue of psychological experiment, I think that he was ill advised because he focused on only the currency part of bitcoin without considering technology behind it which is real and not a figment of imaginations this has been attested to be one of the best invention in the 21st century. I have even read about PWC opening a new line of audit based on blockchain and they already have clients in that field.

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