Crypto is more like “a psychological experiment than a serious investment" - page 5.

dollarneed

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Quote from: RamonBTC on April 17, 2018, 06:11:05 PM

Do you know why most of the time educated man is physically and mentally absence in reality? Because they have a world of its own. This is why most of the time they’re outdated and technologically ignorance. They’re mostly using book rather than ebooks or computers. Not all, but most of them.

If this man is my professor I would rather home study than hearing lectures that is in old fashion.

I hate those who give an expert opinion on things they don’t know or close minded because of self interest. Most probably he invested in stock market and find bitcoin as a threat.

Exactly. Sometimes this type of person prioritizes their opinions than others opinion, in fact not 100% of what they say is accurate even though they are experts in their field, and also their prediction is something that maybe can't happen.

He said bitcoin is more psychological rather than a serious investment, I'm really sorry I disagree with this statement the reason why bitcoin is still alive because bitcoin bring innovation to the world.

taiwww

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Quote

Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for?

No bitcoin will not disappear after looking at the huge investment that is being made into it in the first place. The volume that drives into it daily is crazy enough to change the face of bitcoin forever. Its also already happening and we can see the major changes into its use. The time wont be long when the real use of bitcoin will be made by the government itself and lets not forget about the block chain on what it really working. Thats the leading role which we should be looking after and the bitcoin will follow and its real value will follow too.

Now speaking about your main point, whether bitcoin is psychological one or not? Off course no.

Jlimao28

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What is the connection of psychological experiment through the essence of cryptocurrency?
Essentially, cryptocurrency is a serious investment. We lend our money, time and effort not just to experiment whether we gain or lose it. We applied technical analysis to predict the price because we want to earn. And a mentality of earning is not a psychological experiment rather it is talking to a serious investment.

Paka1

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Quote from: dogandogru on April 17, 2018, 05:52:08 PM

Yes investing in crypto market involves a psychological aspect also. But it’s wrong to address crypto only as a psychological experiment. It’s much more than that. I think crypto is definitely a serious investment because it needs a lot of experience and exposure to the market to trade profitably. Only experimenting with it will not yield favorable results. On the hand how much profit a trader can earn depends on the psychology of the investor like how he responds to the losses, etc.

Certainly, it is not a psychological experiment rather it is an investment that assured investors that their money would return. When we say it is an experiment it is sort of a trial and error but with cryptocurrency we know what we are doing and where we are heading. We don't need to have hypothesis to conclude whay will happen with our investment. Thus, it is a serious investment that needs us to be knowledgeable and capable of investing in. An investment that is not a bubble.

Ewox

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True it could be like a psychological experiment than merely an investment because some would jump into investing bitcoin without any knowledge or whatsoever and because of its popularity. We must admit that's how our society deals with almost anything lately. And anything you see on the news or internet or whatever is hyped a lot, people would swarm in and join it. I think that's what Shiller probably had in mind, so if the hype goes off then most probably bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies would be far gone as well.

Ashleybarnes2

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I was reading an interesting book regarding bubbles recently and he actually highlighted the positive aspects. The hype and speculation brings with it huge investment in infrastructure, once the bubble pops people buy up the infrastructure at a much lower price and build from the foundations. He also highlighted the mental infrastructure that is left behind, in the sense that all the crazy marketing campaigns trying to raise awareness. He says this goes nowhere and more often than not money eventually falls back into the valuable projects.

amishmanish

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His point about "Computer Science department not being able to explain it" is probably just harmless jesting or simply an off-handed comment. The kind we have come to accept from the Noble prize fraternity (shameless URL to one of my posts).

As can be seen from his past statement of "It’s such a wonderful story. If it were only true.”, He has used this belittling tone before. I view him calling it a psychological experiment an improvement. Bitcoin must be getting on his nerves because the student community and young people are so fascinated by it.

On his cue, we should expect more statements from the Nobel fraternity (mentioned earlier) in the near future. You cannot just expect them to turn around their views at once. They have to do this gradually. If they turn it around suddenly, they'd look like fools for their earlier statements. This is just them putting the fut through the door to our side.. Cool

daarul50

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I do not agree if bitcoin investment is considered a psychological experiment. Investment of any form requires a psychological analysis because with such analysis a trader or investor can make speculation about the price to come. We will not know the price will move in any direction without us knowing the most emotional person when looking at the current price conditions. But, if bitcoin is regarded as a psychological experiment merely it impressed as an investor's psychic game alone and that's a bad thing for an investment.

TUGUANL

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Indeed, I feel that as long as it is a transactional investment, it is a psychological experiment, because all investment operations in the trading category are personal psychological battles.

haroldtee

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And there we go again, with some old men trying to school us what they have no idea about. I wouldn't blame them, since they have been so accustomed to the traditional system anyway and it takes a lot getting used to the new age since it is not what they can easily get to learn about by just visiting the library.

It baffles me though that they call themselves expert and only tend to look at one side without looking at the other before making a case. He may be an economics expert, but not a technology expert and comparing bitcoin to tulip bubble is just way absurd. Apparently, there was no doubt we had a bubbled price last year, and we have even had before then, but that does not make bitcoin a bubble. As long as bitcoin is giving solution to the problem centralization has caused, that gives it a real value and that would get it sustained in the long run which is a characteristics a bubble can never have. Maybe it is high time they started getting that to their old thick skulls before sharing their opinions.

kryptqnick

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Quote from: FuninUSA on April 15, 2018, 03:27:17 AM

Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, expressed his idea about cryptocurrency.

"I'm interested in bitcoin as a sort of bubble.
The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

The price of bitcoin grew so fast.
A lot of people have benefited from the cryptocurrency investment.
Bitcoin held above $8,000 on Friday morning after topping that level a day earlier. The two-day rally comes after a weak start to April likely tied to tax-related selling.
Will the bitcoin disappear? What's the true value of bitcoin? What essence in bitcoin are we paying for? Huh

This guy sure has the right to express his opinion, but witth all due respect I believe he is wrong. Bitcoin is not a bubble. I mean, its price might be more than it deserves, but blockchain tech is real and potentially useful in many situations. Blockchain can cooperate with neuron networks to help with recognition, identification of solid and fake products etc. Not to mantion that it embodies the idea of the free economy, when it is up to people to decide the prices with all thw advantages and disanvantages it leads to.
There already was a thread about tulip mania once on bitcointalk and people there wee explaining the differences of bitcoin from that phenomenon. I think among the obvious differences is that fact that tulips differ from each other a lot less than fiat from cryptocurrencies. The fashion of btc might not be justified, but the product is kind of real and thus shouldn't be treated as a merely weird psychological phenomenon.

eternalgloom

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I really wonder why the comparison to tulip mania always pops up in discussions like these, as though Bitcoin has absolutely no real-world value.
I mean, here you have a professor of economics who appears not to have done any basic research on the underlying technology of Bitcoin.

Just gets a bit old reading the same shit over and over again, especially when it's so easily dis-proven.

Ctn

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I think the other way. Bitcoin is not psychological experiment but a virtual reality which can not be explained with such terms. It is real because it usage the real energy and it creates valuable assets after complex maths solving and stuff like that. Thats not even close to psychological experiments. People are not having fun here but doing some serious coding so that blockchain can work and we can use it to transform the way transactions and money circulation works! Where is the psychology here? The prices that are increasing in this market is a result of the investment, new tech approaches and people putting their money into it just like they do for the stocks and golds.

Supercrypt

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What we are really paying for is the fact that we can easily make payment anywhere in the world without a third party, and the fact that it is meant to be a decentralized and deflationary currency. Nevertheless, let's face it, that idea is more like hitting the drain as most people now consider it more as a speculative asset than a currency and unless we start seeing mainstream adoption as a currency, it is always going to end up being more like a bubbled price than having a real value. Bitcoin itself is not a bubble, but the value at a present point in time can end up being a bubble.

krishnapramod

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To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department.

Faddish human behavior/psychology is driving the market; it's true to an extent.

The computer science department part is a bit confusing. Couple of his past statements:

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Then, we have a new form of money that ... sounds extremely revolutionary and involves a very clever use of cryptography that you can spend all afternoon trying to figure out," Shiller said. "So the story has inspired young people and active people, and that's what's driving the market.

Cryptography/Blockchain technology is the story that is driving the market.

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I tend to think of bitcoin as an experiment," he said. "It is an interesting experiment, but it's not a permanent feature of our lives. We are over-emphasizing bitcoin, we should broaden it out to blockchain, which will have other applications.

He also said that there is a political side:

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Part of it is political. Economists tend to neglect the political side," he said. "There's a big element of people [who] don't trust the government anymore. They like the idea that this didn't come from the government. It came from some real smart computer scientist. They like that. It's a great story for today's markets.

I wouldn't call it political. People's distrust in the government is driving the Bitcoin market, now doesn't that make Bitcoin a socio-economic experiment?

Robert Schiller did said that Bitcoin is the best example of a bubble, tulip mania and it's collapse was imminent and then changed his opinion to cryptocurrencies could linger on for a good long time and now faddish human behavior, but at the same time consideringthe decentralized socio-economic angle of Bitcoin. He seems a tad bit confused and he did said that he doesn't know what to make of Bitcoin ultimately.

eaLiTy

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Quote from: FuninUSA on April 15, 2018, 03:27:17 AM

"To me, it's interesting as another example of faddish human behavior. It's glamorous," he added. The bitcoin craze reminds him of tulip mania in the 17th century, the event which is considered one of the first recorded speculative bubbles where a buying frenzy and lofty expectations replace rational justifications for an item's value.

I know that Robert Shiller is a Nobel prize winning economist, but one thing he specializes is human behavior in economics and investment and may be that the reason he is referring it as tulip mania, but with that reference we can very well tell that he does not have a clue what he is talking about, if he is talking about the entire alt coin market then it might be true, but it cannot be true with bitcoin as it is limited in circulation and there is no way you can compare it to tulip mania .

Happiest

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I just hope this is not another FUD indirect, but it's a good thing to know that he said that he stated that bitcoin will stay with us for a while. And also, nobody knows if bitcoin will disappear or not, just like many things is unpredictable in cryptocurrency. And also, the true value of bitcoin is also unknown too, but keep in mind that its value and price will keep on increasing immensely.

aso118

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The price appreciation might very well be due to psychological reasons, but that doesn’t take away the fact that Bitcoin represents a breakthrough in technology. The bubble may burst, but bitcoin will continue to be used. If this is an experiment, I definitely want to be part of it.

Roaid

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Those who said these things certainly did not invest in Bitcoin. Lol
As for Bitcoin's bubble, then take the example of a tulip. Anyway, I haven't seen the tulip bubble. I have only seen fiat currency bubble for decades.
As for economics, I believe that Bitcoin is very much in line with F A Hayek's ideal currency. Although Robert Shiller is also a well-known economist, Bitcoin is not merely an economic issue. It also involves politics. I think that considering it only from the perspective of economics is relatively narrow.

no0dlepunk

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Well. everything in this realm is psychological... even money (fiat). When a group of people believes or agrees about something, revolution happens. Bitcoin did not get people's attention instantly, it took time before the people bought it. Why? probably because they (or we) have already agreed (mutually) that bitcoin and fiat are not far from each other - bitcoins could also be used just like how we use fiat. And that is psycho, isn't that?

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