Topic: Crypto Veterans and Legendaries: Need Advice on my Bitcoin Strategy - page 2. (Read 1235 times)

Update:

today is June 5th, 2023:


The price of bitcoin is around $25,669.25 as of now.

DECISION Time!

I made decent gains timing the bottom at around $16.8k and now it is $26k
I was hoping BTC would reach around $35k ~ $45k at-least by now.. but it looks like $30k was a pretty good reach.


Now, I can sell everything at $26k and then hop back in the game after around 9 months.. i.e around Feb 15th 2024 but atleast a month before the next halving which is around April 24th 2024.

Or, I can leave everything untouched and let it go.. BTC will go back to $17k ~ $20k and eventually will go past $65k at some point in 2024. So, in the long run this is less risky.

Or, I can sell everything now.. buy back in once BTC goes below $20k and then wait one final time for 2025..

Not sure what I will do.. thinking and thinking..  

Update:
--------

Today is April 16th, 2023. Bitcoin price is around $30k

Crypto Fear and Greed Index:
--------------------------------------------
Now           ====> Greed ====>  69
Yesterday   ====> Greed ====>  68
Last week   ====> Greed ====>  62
Last month ====> Greed ====>  64


On track for $45k Bitcoin around June 10th..


I need to decide if I want to sell all of my crypto by June of this year and then get back into the Crypto game 9 months later i.e a few months before the next halving.
Or I can just HODL and sell everything around 2025 May.

I think BTC will cross $45k this year and then it will collapse slowly to $30k for a year or so before shooting up again for the final bull run.

Will update again around June of this year. i.e 2 months from now.

Looks like I got lucky again and timed the bottom to perfection at around $16.8k

Now, I have two choices.

Wait for the next bull run and sell it at the likely top just like how I did previously.
Or Sell BTC once it crosses $45k to $50k in 2023.

And then buy back in after 8 to 9 months at around $30k. This option is super tricky to pull off.

If I sell everything at $45k to $50k the other option is to branch out into alts around halving which is also super risky.

The most rational thing and the correct thing to do is to HODL till the next bull run and then sell it. But this approach is boring and not exciting.
And yet I need to do the boring thing so I can exit from crypto with decent profits in 2025.

The next date to watch out for is June 10th 2023. Bitcoin will likely cross over $40k by then easily.
And then I have to decide if I should sell or not. The rational choice is to not sell but to HODL till 2025.

This question can only be answered by you. With this dispersed and insufficient data, nearly no one can provide you any advice.

Last and Final Update for 2022/2023:

Today is November 23rd, 2022

I converted my wrapped bitcoins to proper bitcoins and put it in cold storage. I have my make it stack right now. This is almost 85% of my portfolio.
15% of the remaining stash I am gambling on a low marketcap coin. rCC Moons. Not sure if this is a good idea. Not sure if this gamble will pay off.

I am done with crypto. No more trading for this year and the next.

I will become active again in the year 2024 2 months before the halving. Might make a few trades then (less than 4 per year).
Will finally quit crypto permanently by selling at the top in 2025 if there is a bull run again.

Update:

Today is November 12th. 2022.

Yesterday, I bought some Bitcoins. I wanted to buy a few every single day for a week or so.
Today, I just went all in and converted 90% of my stable coins into Bitcoins.
The average price at which I bought all is around $16,810 per coin.


The reasons why I bought today are:

1. 1 year from previous ATH.
2. Bitcoin rainbow chart says firesale. The lines actually dipped out of the color band.
3. Crypto Fear and Greed Index:

Historical Values
----------------------------------
Now.            Extreme Fear. 22
Yesterday     Extreme Fear. 21
Last week     Fear.              40
Last month   Extreme Fear. 24

4. Bitcoin is already 76% down from the previous ATH.
5. Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure tracker indicates an extraordinary selling activity from miners. They are selling more than they have in almost 5 years!


Again. There is a catch. I did not buy actual bitcoin but wrapped bitcoin which carries quite a bit of risk. I will have to try and convert the wrapped BTC to BTC and then put it in cold storage. So, not completely out of the woods yet.

Next:

After 6 months i.e May 2023. BTC will likely 2.5x from the current price. i.e will hover around $37k. I am going to convert to stable coins and pull out of the market then.
3 months before the next halving i.e around Feb 2024. I will switch to Ethereum 100%. 3 months after halving I will convert 10% into the latest and greatest nascent cryptos with good hype/buzz.
Final exit is roughly on or before August 2025

this is roughly my plan.

The other simpler approach is to just keep everything in Bitcoin till 3 months before the halving date. Then convert 50% to Ethereum. Then after another few months invest 10% into new alts. Sell everything on August 2025.

The Next Bitcoin Halving is on April 2024.
1 year after the halving things will start getting heated up. i.e Around April 2025.

I am giving myself 4 months to exit i.e August 2025. This should be plenty of time for the Bull Market Exit.

I should avoid becoming too greedy and then losing everything. I will also keep observing for celebrity endorsements, crypto ads, crypto apps becoming most downloaded in the app store etc during these 4 months.

August 2025 is the final date. Any date before that if I see clear sell signals then I will sell. I will not wait past August no matter what because I would already have made enough profit.

Do whatever you want with your money, you can even specify the exact minute and second when you start and finish, although I don't see how that makes sense. While there is some logic about the time period when you plan to invest, your exit point is completely meaningless and random (at least it seems so to me).


What if on that date the price of all the coins you invested in is 50% (or any other percentage) lower than the price that will be at the beginning of 2025 or maybe in the middle of that same year? Do you want to say that you will stubbornly wait for that date even if the price starts to collapse months before?

Haven't bought any Bitcoin yet.

November 11th will be the date I will 100% start buying Bitcoin. I will go all in regardless of the price. Hoping Bitcoin will fall down as much as possible around that date.
BTC 60% ETH 20% BNB 10% Reddit R/Cryptocurrency Moons 10%. is the split I might do. Not completely sure.

November 11th to November 17th will be the range I will finish buying. After that I am not going to touch crypto till the year 2025. I will just sell everything then and get out.


I will pull out of crypto permanently i.e sell everything on August 30th, 2025


I will not be greedy and will try to settle for $4 Million Dollars which is plenty enough. No need to shoot for more than that.. infact even $3M dollars should be enough.. no need to get too greedy and lose it all.

Is this thread intended as a joke? If not, you're doing your best for it to be the example of a typical bitcoin investor who sees bitcoin at 60k and says he'll buy it when it falls. When it starts falling it's never a good time. The price is never low enough.

-50% - nope
-60% - nope
-70% - I'll wait some more...
Fear and greed at all time low? Why would I buy now?

A while later...

-those fools are buying. It's obviously a fake rally. A dead cat bounce.
-damn did I miss the bottom? It's recovering so maybe there will be another dip.
-no dip still, we went back to -60% from ATH, it will correct again so I won't buy yet
-it went to 50% ATH - a fake rally.
-what? It reached the old ATH once again, now I won't buy it's too expensive!
-I'll wait for another dip and then I'll buy for sure! It's fine though, I'll have more fiat ready.

New ath 100k - when it goes down 60% I'll start buying. Wait, that's going to be $40k and I had a chance to buy at 17... I'm so unlucky! Stupid bitcoin!

Today is August 12th.

I MISSED THE BOTTOM 

I should have bought it at $17.5K. It would have been good enough for me and I still did not buy waiting for $10k.
At the top I sold at good enough. I should have bought back in at good enough. Mistake.

Now BTC is at $24k and I have 0 BTC. Haven't bought in yet!

Today is July 23rd.

I was hoping for Bitcoin to drop down to $12k but so far it hasn't happened.

The ATH to ATL for BTC is only around 75%. I would have loved to have it drop to 80% and more.

Elon Musk sold most of his BTC off so this is a sign of bottoming out. Miners have been laid off. That's another sign.

I still don't know if BTC will keep going down to $12k ~ $15k or if it will stay in the $20k range for a bit before moving back up to $35k to $40k

Another thing to consider is that BTC has larger exposure this time and countries are getting involved. So, $20k could indeed be the bottom.

I am going to start buying in BTC. I would have loved to buy ETH too but I don't have confidence in their merge/surge roadmap. It could go either ways and I feel it is risky to put in large amount on an uncertain and risky bet.

I will start with buying 3 BTC for a start. Starting from today. I will gradually put in around $200k into BTC.

My DCA period: July 23rd to October 13th. I will not invest one single dollar more after October 13th

If I invest everything right now and BTC tanks by 50% I will lose 50% of everything. so I will DCA in and around a bit.
Only time will tell if I made the right decision.

wondering if I missed the bottom 

Regardless of the BTC price. I am going to go in and buy on July 23rd. This is the final date for me.
Hoping BTC will crash before then. If it doesn't that's okay too.

I should have gotten in at $17.5k. Missed it. 

Today is Saturday, July 2nd. BTC Price is trading at $19,289.39

Looking back at my earlier posts one would think that I would have jumped at this opportunity to buy Bitcoins. I feel Bitcoin could go lower. i.e around $10k to $12k. That's why I am still waiting for the dip to dip. Again, this could be the classic mistake of trying to time the bottom which no one can do but still I am trying to do.

$20k - $19k could be the bottom range and it might just go up from here.

I am going to wait 3 more weeks. i.e till around July 19th. If the price is still around $20k then I will go ahead and start the DCA buying process.
If it drops down to $12k - $15. Then I will go all in and buy without DCA.

My criterion for the bear bottom is this:

1. There should be no will left in the bullish soul.
2. Not a single person on the main bitcoin discussion forum talks about "dca" or buying a bitcoin at discounted prices.

In a true bottom, the will just dies.

Today: One of the top posts is about "Strong Hands Buying Bitcoin"
More importantly: 1. MicroStrategy and 2. Nayib Bukele from El Salvador started buying the dip once more.
This is usually a bad sign because Saylor usually buys the local top and likewise for Bukele.

I will wait 3 more weeks to decide. July 19th to Nov 19th would be my buy zone. I will under no circumstance wait beyond November end to buy Bitcoin regardless of the price. And no earlier than July end to buy the dip.

Hoping for $10k - $12k BTC.   

lol

look at the date of the post. I sold everything on Nov 14th 2021 a few days before making this post. I haven't sold early. I timed the top pretty much to perfection. lol
Of-course, I got lucky timing the top. I am hoping I can time the bottom similarly as well @ around $12k per BTC  

That's exactly what i thought lol

Today is June 18th 2022.

Bitcoin tanked all the way down to $17,708.62

Technically, I should start buying BTC. I remember in one of my earlier posts saying I would buy a BTC if it dropped to $30k and my total BTC stack reached 21 BTC. Right now if I bought BTC I will have way more than 21 BTC.

And yet, here I am not buying BTC yet.

Why?
1. Bitcoin is only -72.4% from ATH at the moment. -80% from ATH would put it between $13k and $14k. That should be the sweet spot.
2. There is no hotline posted on reddit or here on Bitcoin talk forum.
3. The sentiment is still to HODL and to buy the dip at the moment on the internet. That has to die. People should finally give up and sell all their crypto and exit the market. This will mark the bottom.
4. Also, Rock Bottom will last at-least a couple of months at the very minimum. There will be multiple opportunities to buy at the bottom. There is absolutely no need to buy on any one particular day immediately.

On the con side $17k to $20k could be the bottom and I might probably miss it waiting for $12k to $13k BTC.

Technically I could DCA from right now. But I won't do it. I will observe the market over the next few weeks. If BTC comes down to $12k then I will definitely think about buying BTC.
The key difference is that this time for the first time Bitcoin is experiencing a recession. So, BTC could go down all the way to $5000. Who knows??

just like I took the plunge and sold everything at ATH despite having second thoughts. I will have to take a plunge and buy BTC at ATL (assumed ATL) and then hibernate till 2024/2025.

Lets see what's in store and how this will all play out.

I made the first post last year November 2021 and not recently.

You are on target with Ethereum comment. I should just stick to BTC/ETH and exit on good terms. No point in gambling on risky stuff.. but it will be boring though. That's why I will only gamble a small amount. I will likely just cash out in the beginning stages of 2025 bull run and exit crypto completely. 

We don't know what the future entails, but I'm pretty sure everyone here knows that BTC will not break it's $67K all-time-high in the next few weeks.

It's even doubtful whether it will manage over $40K by then.


That may happen with other cryptos but not the well-established ones (i.e. BTC, ETH, etc.)


The bear market has already been here since about 4 weeks ago and it doesn't look like it'll be over for another 4 weeks.

Note that there may be one or two more bear markets like this before the next halving.


Don't do any of that, it's a very quick way to lose your 10% allocation you set aside for that.

If you want to invest in altcoins, you only invest in ETH. Why? Because it has consistently held No. 2 market cap for several years in a row. 3rd place is always being overtaken by the "new fad of the day" coin that then drops to 10th or 20th place a few months later along with a corresponding (major) drop in price.

Why did I say ETH? Because if its current price is at $2000-something, then when the halving brings BTC into 6 digits, people will buy up ETH and bring it to 5 digits around that time as well (think $10000 or $12000). That's a 5x - 6x return.

And please, stay away from trading NFTs, ICOs, and DeFis. There are even less signals for the price movements of these assets and in most cases you might very well end up with an empty bag.


Listen to your gut (your gut is always right).

This is what I am unsure of and I am having second thoughts. Is 20k the bottom and then it will go up or will we go down further by another 50% and hit $10k to $15k range?

1. The hotline on reddit hasn't been posted yet. It hasn't been posted on this forum either.
2. Most alts have only crashed 90% and not a solid 95% yet.   

We are almost there and yet not completely there. I am going to wait till the lines get posted and most alts get wiped out. The total sentiment should be extremely negative. There should be 0 hope. People will swear off crypto permanently.
THAT is when it is true rock bottom. And, it will last 2 to 3 months easily. That is when we need to buy.

But also remember we were never in a proper recession before while crypto was in full swing. If we have a stock meltdown and widespread layoffs then crypto might tank even lower than $10k - $15k which means all the gains I got will be wiped off. So, that is a risk that I have to take.