Topic: Crypto Veterans and Legendaries: Need Advice on my Bitcoin Strategy - page 3. (Read 1082 times)

today is Jun 5th, 2022.

Bitcoin seems to be a stable coin @ $29,906.56
Originally I wanted to buy a bitcoin at $35k.

I haven't bought anything yet. I am expecting another 45% drop. I will 100% buy Bitcoin at $15k. That should be the rock bottom for this cycle.

If I look at the global charts. Crypto peaked at $2.84 Trillion Dollars on 2021 November 12th. Rock bottom is usually 1 year from previous ATH. So that should be around 2022 November 15th or so.

So, I might have to wait another 6 months for the rock bottom.. or it could happen any time between now and November.

I will 100% buy BTC in December no matter the price.

Expecting $15K BTC and $450 ETH in the next few months. My strategy would be to go all in at that time and then reevaluate the strategy around May 4, 2024.
I will likely liquidate 10% of my N.W then and invest in new coins on May 4th 2024. 2025 October 27th will be my exit play and I will likely diversify into stock market, real estate then.

My one rule is to not make more than 3 trades in 2024 and 3 trades in 2025.

I really don't like checking the graphs every day till November 2022 but thats what needs to be done. Once I go all in November. I will only check the charts again in 2024. i.e 2 years break.  

I also made up my mind on the ideal N.W.
It will be around $4M. That's it. $4M and I will exit. It is stupid to try and get more money beyond that. Even with $4M, I can get $300k per year annual return if I get 7.5% return annually. And, unlike income this $300k won't be taxed that much. I can then invest that $300k into other income generating assets. The quality of life won't really improve all that much between $4M and lets say $10M. If I try for $10M I will likely lose everything.

I will wait for a few more weeks and see if the price drops. I am expecting these two events to happen:
1. Complete loss of interest in Crypto from the general public. Extremely low online activity on reddit crypto subs. People selling off their crypto and swearing off of it.
2. 95% drop in most alts.

I might even have to wait until November (highly unlikely).

Even after lets say December/Jan the prices not only don't drop but shoot up to $40k+ or something then I will just have to bite the bullet and buy. I will likely not go all in then.
But if BTC is in the low $20k or even $15k then I will go 100% ALL in. 

>> It's hard to tell if you will reach your goal of 10m USD like that.

10m is a stupid goal to have. I don't need 10m. I will definitely end up losing everything if I shoot for 10m. That was an irrational goal that I had. My goal now is 5m. I can do plenty of damage with 5m. If I have better odds of cashing out with 5m I should take it. Sure, it could go up more but there are also external factors out of my control like crypto being banned or somehow losing my keys or getting hacked. I could also impulsively and greedily invest in something like the next Luna and lose everything. With every crypto run the govt. is taking crypto more and more seriously. I strongly suspect if someone like Elizabeth Warren comes into power it could have consequences.

>> If you split your money you could easily buy a nice house or apartment for 400k USD

This is the real item here. I don't have my own place right now. More than anything I have to 100% be in a situation where I have a fully paid off home. That would mean a lot to me. Incredible peace of mind. This is more important than even chasing 5m or 10m N.W in something that is risky and may or may not happen at all.

What you are suggesting is the most rational and absolutely the correct thing to do. But, I can't bring myself to do it.

I will just wait for the bottom and invest everything in BTC/Eth. My goal is to skim out $500k for a home during the bear market initially and then not wait for a blow off top like I did last time. Next time I will definitely exit way earlier even if that means losing potentially more. Just sticking to BTC/Eth should be enough to reach 5m. But I will most likely switch to alts 3 to 4 months before the next halving and potentially lose everything. I have to think clearly and play the boring game. I just need to stick to the original plan.  I should just put in a small amount in alts without getting too greedy shooting for 10m 20m etc. I am just a regular guy and I definitely don't need crazy returns.

I would suggest you to have some trail buy ready though. I mean you are hoping for 20k, and maybe it will happen, or maybe it won't and I can't tell you which one it will be, however I can tell you that if you do not buy right now, and it doesn't go down, then what are you going to do? That will not be a simple situation for you and I would suggest not to do this, I suggest you to keep it going as much as possible and buy when the price starts to go up.

So, have your buy orders ready, if it goes to 30k for example and you bought none, that would be bad for your future, it is just an idea but I would prefer if I were ready for any going up, instead of just waiting for a bigger drop.

Congratulations to your crypto success, you already made very big profits. Your strategy sounds well thought trough and should bring you more profits in the future. It's hard to tell if you will reach your goal of 10m USD like that. But is this really important for you? Maybe some more moderate goals would be a tradeoff to not face the risk of a big loss? If you split your money you could easily buy a nice house or apartment for 400k USD, maybe you even find a seller who accepts crypto currencies. Than you already have a hard asset you can always rely on. With the remain 250k USD you could still do your strategy and get a few millions profit. Storing your money across multiple wallets is a good idea given your big network. Maybe 50 different wallet is a bit much because you need to store all the information savely, but having atleast 5-10 is a good idea.

Today's date is May 12th, 2022. BTC price hit a low of $26,350.49 in the past 24 hours.

I was expecting a crash like this for a while now but was really taken aback by how sudden it was. Most likely due to the Luna mess. Otherwise, it would have done the same but over a prolonged period.

Terra LUNA is $0.09153  Completely shocking!

I haven't yet bought a single BTC yet. The absolute bear rock bottom won't last just 24 hours or so.. It will likely last a few months at-least. So, I am not in a hurry to buy back in.
Most alts are in -80% losses and a few are already in -95%+ loss.. I am going to wait a bit more and see if 90% of the alts are down 95%+ or more.

BTC entry point @ around $20k looks like a real possibility at this point. The lowest it can possibly go should be around $12k to $15k. I will be surprised if BTC falls below $10k though.

The price of Bitcoin even crashed more to below 30.000 for the first time since I don't know how many months but it is a lot of them.This means that the only working strategy is to HODL until the next bull run meanwhile taking profit of every opportunity like this one to collect more Bitcoin if possible.

In the end just remember that Bitcoin is a marathon and not a sprint,this should be the Holders religion to stick to it,to remember we are running a marathon and not just a sprint.

Today's date is May 11th, 2022. BTC price is at $31,500. That is around -55% from ATH. This is a big dip but it can go lower because the alts haven't reached 95%+ is losses.

Conditions for bear market bottom:
1. Most non BTC alt coins should fall down 95% from ATH.  (This makes sense because most alt coins are worthless and will tend towards losing much of their value.)
2. Around 1 year from BTC previous ATH. This is a bit tricky this time because it was a double top. So it either in May 2022 i.e this month. Or a few months from now, i.e November.
3. Typically Bitcoin crashes around 80%. That would mean a bottom price of about $15k per coin. It could crash atleast 70% this time and that would put it around $20k.
4. The bear market bottom will last for 3 to 4 months and even then it won't shoot up suddenly. There will still be more opportunities to buy it but it won't be at the rock bottom level.
5. The hotline has to be posted. This hasn't happened yet. Crypto is a zero sum game. All we are doing is shuffling money from one pocket to another in tricky ways and then trying to rationalize it.
    In order for one person to make money in crypto someone else has to lose it. When people lose a huge amount of money they have no choice but to drop out of the game. They will only sell
    and permanently get off the crypto game because they over invested in crypto. This marks the bottom and is followed by a slow steady rise and marks the beginning of the next bull run after a prolonged
    bottom period of at-least 3 to 4 months.


Here is the down from ATH list as of May 11th, 2022

      
1   BitcoinBTC                           -54.40%
2   EthereumETH                   -50.70%
4   BNBBNB                           -55.70%
6   XRPXRP                           -87.10%
7   CardanoADA                   -79.90%
8   SolanaSOL                           -76.60%
10   DogecoinDOGE                   -86.50%
11   PolkadotDOT                   -80.60%
12   AvalancheAVAX                   -73.50%
13   Lido Staked Ether           -42.10%
14   Wrapped BitcoinWBTC   -54.30%
15   SHIBA INUSHIB                   -83.20%
17   TRONTRX                           -77.60%
19   CronosCRO                   -76.10%
20   PolygonMATIC                   -71%
21   LitecoinLTC                   -81%
22   Near ProtocolNEAR           -60.90%
23   FTX TokenFTT                   -60.90%
24   UNUS SED LEOLEO           -41.10%
25   Bitcoin CashBCH           -94.80%
26   ChainLinkLINK                   -84%
27   OKBOKB                           -67.50%

You should see a good hard 90% and I would say at-least 95% drop in most of the alt coins.  Many of these alts would be ignored and not developed further. They may not even ever recover in the next bull run.

Why? Because the founders and early adopters already made their gains. It is far easier for them to wait a few more years and then start a brand new alt coin and create hype than it is to try to work on a dead project. Unless, ofcourse the founders have integrity. But most are practical and there are forces at play which will keep them practical.

The next few weeks should see a brutal crypto bloodbath. Once BTC is at around $20k AND the alts bleed 95% and more AND people start swearing off of crypto permanently. That is when I will buy BTC.
Just as it was extremely difficult to sell off at the top, it will likely be extremely difficult and painful to buy at the bottom because you will feel that it could go still lower or that BTC will be worthless in the future(to be fair this is still a possibility). But, I will force myself to buy it. I won't DCA in. I will go all in on BTC (70%) ETH (30%) in a span of 2 to 3 weeks. After that will wait till the next halving to liquidate 10% and reinvest in the new crop of altcoins 3 months before the halving. Then, in 2025 I will sell everything in the mania phase and never ever again touch crypto. Perma exit.  

It is impossible to predict when the bottom of the bear market will be, you may have already missed it. Bitcoin has a history of defying predictions and expectations. The current bear market has been going on for 5 months and is showing no signs of an end anytime soon. However, the new Bitcoin bull run will certainly surprise the pundits and shake up all their beliefs.

There are many predictions regarding the current decline in Bitcoin, but I believe that no one can accurately predict it. It will be here when it's here, and only time will tell when it is over. Bitcoin has survived worse collapses than what is taking place right now and will most likely survive this one, too. So, I believe in the beautiful resilience of Bitcoin. There are other options to consider for your strategy. You can, for example, consider buying Bitcoin in small increments for long-term investments.

I haven't bought any BTC yet.

Today's date: May 1st 2022. Bitcoin price is $38,276.85 at the moment.

Bear Bottom is typically 1 year from previous ATH. So, it should be either in May 2022 or Nov/Dec 2022. I strongly suspect it will be November 2022 end. It could also happen 2 to 3 weeks from now.
I am expecting a slow 7%-10% week over week bleed over the course of time to around $25k. Majority of the alts must lose 90% of their value. That is also another indicator for the bottom.  
Once I buy in, I will hibernate till the next Halving i.e till 2024 March 2nd. I will liquidate a part of my BTC/ETH holdings at that time and invest only in new alts that have a vibrant community, good marketing team, a great dev team and have been launched on major exchanges i.e on March 2nd 2024. Also, these new alts must have been in the market for less than a year.

2017/2018 had ICO mania. 2020/2021 had DeFi/Metaverse + NFT mania. I expect something new to crop up around 2024/2025. I will try to get in early in that as well. I will not put 100% into it but I will put a decent chunk. Probably around 5% of my crypto worth at that time.

2025 Will be my final crypto play. I will sell it during the height of the mania phase i.e on Feb 23rd 2025.

This is my strategy.

Today's date: Jan 21st 2022.

Bitcoin price is $36,682.32 at the moment.

I am going to wait for 1 more month and see if BTC goes below $30k (highly unlikely) Most likely will hit a bottom of $32k.

I am going to buy 3 BTC on March 1st-7th and then decide the next course of action.
If Bitcoin goes below $25k I will go ALL IN. It won't bother me if it slides down even further.

Need to research more on collectibles. 

Today's date: Dec 9th 2021. Bitcoin prices are falling down as expected due to Coinbase effect on Oct 28th and as explained in my earlier posts.
Will make my first BTC purchase once it hits $30k - $35k.
There are 2 possibilities. mini bear market. 1.5 year bear market. Will buy a few BTC once $30k is breached within the next few months and then will again invest from 2023 October regardless.
For the 1.5 Bear the lower floor will likely not go below $18k. For the mini bear floor will likely not go below $30k

2024 will be my last cycle. 

The feeling of having missed gains is as worse as actual losses in crypto. This is because of the stories we keep hearing on twitter about people making it and exiting/ retiring (GMI, WAGMI, NGMI memes).

I think this is all just designed for one thing. Enrichment of the existing speculators who already have millions in stolen ETH, airdropped ETH or simply the privilege of belonging to closed groups. People like you either end up becoming like them or end up being fodder for them.

This is because you have greedily and selfishly concentrated the meaning of crypto for yourself as "I wanna make money and Exit", "I don't ever wanna lose more speculative money". You are in this state of FOMO and fear in general. Just chill out man. Take a step back and Relax. You've made more than Half a Million and that too is in "stablecoins" for now. As far as crypto money is concerned, it is as safe as it can be.

To someone who has made that kind of money solely from crypto, I would say that why not treat it as an alternate career and hobby, rather than just a means to make more money? Just keep half of it in BTC and speculate away with the other by investing into projects that genuinely interest you. Find a community of like-minded people who would like to make money AS WELL AS contribute back to the space.

Have more of a vision than "I don't want to miss out". At any point, if you have that kind of crypto money, a significant part shud be purely in safe, cold stored bitcoins. Shop around for collectibles here in the forum. Get to know others who do it. Learn to avoid scams and judge people. Crypto, like every other sphere of innovation, needs its people to rise beyond just being gambling sheep. Give up the fear, calculate your risk appetite and then invest away after setting away a Bitcoin stash (which will anyways keep growing in value with crypto).

>> you need to diversify a decent chunk of your money outside crypto altogether

I 100% completely agree with you on this.

I definitely don't want to HODL forever. The next Bull run and this potential bull run (if it happens) will be the last ones I will participate in. There is more to life than just crypto or even money.

I just need to 2x or 3x more from here at the bare minimum and then I will diversify more into stocks and real estate after paying capital gains tax. I will take out $1 M at that point.

Regarding speculation. I don't really think expecting hotline to be put up on reddit and here is speculation. This is pretty much guaranteed to happen at some point.

We have a bubble that will be burst followed by a hotline and then consolidation period followed by a bubble. The bubbles might get less and less frothy but for now this is pretty much a given.

You're just pulling random figures out of the air and hoping someone will agree with you, this thread should really be in the speculation section of the forum. Nobody can tell you the future price of Bitcoin, if it started getting banned throughout Europe for some perceived environmental issues (e.g. wasteful power usage) then the price would be very vulnerable to collapse. I remember that there was a tweet in the last year where someone claimed that US regulators were going to crack down on Bitcoin and the price plummeted simply on that rumor alone. If you really want to be stable in life and have accrued a bit pot of cash then you need to diversify a decent chunk of your money outside crypto altogether, that's what any true financial advisor should be telling you.

Today is Sunday. November 28th. 2021.

I haven't yet bought my whole BTC yet.

I am waiting for the market to crash to around $30k to $40k in BTC to buy my first whole coin that I will HODL forever.

If the market tanks even below that point, I will consider buying a second coin at max but that's my limit.

I will actually start DCAing once the hotline goes up on Reddit and here on BitcoinTalk. This will be my entry point. I will DCA in and buy almost once every week.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index:

Historical Values
Now Fear 27
Yesterday Extreme Fear 21
Last week Neutral 49
Last month Greed 70

There is a possibility that the market will tank 30% more and BTC will hover around $35k for the next 3 months and then the real Bull market could start in 2022 Q1 2017 style.
I want to DCA 40% of my stable coins (BUSD/USDC) if this happens over the next 3 to 4 months.

There is a possibility that this could be the start of the next actual crypto winter. If this is the case then I will only start DCAing from December of 2022 and for the next 6 months till May of 2023.
I will not active at all and let it HODL till 2024 Halving. Once the Halving starts.. I will take a small part out and invest in Alt coins.

Anyways.. I am currently waiting for the hotline to be posted up. And for a further 30% drop. Let's see what the future holds.

One good thing about the winter is that chart checking goes down a lot and i can focus on other areas of my life.   

By posting publicly, I am kind of holding myself accountable. I sometimes drink my own kool-aid a lot and listening to different perspectives on this which challenge my way of thinking is something I appreciate a lot.

Also, if I do succeed in 10xing from here on, it would be nice to maintain a historical record of my progress. I am 100% going to switch off from crypto if I cross $7 Million in NW after taxes and move it into real estate, stocks etc. I am going to retire and focus purely on low risk investments from then on.

I feel like your aim for this post isn't to gain advice but more like to stroke your ego, I mean you're not going to need advice if you're willing to put 15k USD in something that's been considered a volatile investment. It's not luck that got you to that point, you know that you have to get in no matter what happens.

Friday, Nov 19th.
Bitcoin price is currently at $56k.

I haven't bought any BTC so far.

If BTC crashes further and goes down below $40k. I will buy 2 BTC. If there is a bull run and the prices 2x then I will sell both the coins. 
I am expecting the downward trend to continue for 2 more months. Retail noobs turned bullish on Oct 28th. i.e crypto app downloads.

Nevertheless, I will only make major purchasing decisions during the bear market. Can't wait for it to arrive. Once the bears come, I will convert everything to BTC and HODL for the next Halvening. i.e 2024.
Normally, it's easy to not check the charts during the bear market. But because I am fully loaded it will be interesting to see how I will behave.

When I had less crypto I would be fearful when everyone around me was fearful and greedy when everyone around me is greedy. I used to buy high and sell slightly higher or sell low.
Now, It's the opposite. I sold everything into stable coins when everyone was greedy and the coin was pumping. Now, when everyone is in fear mode, I am relaxed and waiting.. and waiting.


Let's see what the future hold.s.

What you are describing here has little to do with investing, it is more like gambling in the hope that you will be lucky. You base your strategy on the fact that the past will repeat itself, and that by investing in every altcoin that appears in that period, you will really profit - the reality is completely different in that case. I guess you live in the US and that's why you need millions of dollars to insure yourself for the rest of your life, but if you believe that Bitcoin will have a new big bull run after halving 2024, you can easily turn that $650k into a few million without any risk just by holding.


Your money, your risk, and your decision - but I think that would be the smartest decision for you. Whatever you decide, it is important that you do not gamble everything you have, because you will never be able to forgive yourself.