Topic: CZ's view on Halving - page 2. (Read 683 times)

I see it as a double-edged sword, where, if the majority's expectations post-halving go unmet or their perception turns negative, we may witness the opposite effect – a massive sell-off of BTC. The psychology of money-seeking individuals is rooted in their reluctance to be caught at a high BTC price, thus giving rise to extraordinary fear.

However, should the majority of the Bitcoin community's expectations be met, or even exceeded, the market could experience a positive sentiment that propels BTC's price to a new all-time high.

So, the certainty of a new ATH after the halving remains uncertain. The current public expectations are significant, and what is most feared is if the market cannot meet these expectations, leading to a price dump that leaves the BTC market in turmoil.

I'd be happy if it's going to exceed x5 of the current bitcoin price. I'm not expecting it to go in that route but if it happens we'll say it's analysis was perfection. What's going to happen if halving won't bring pumps. If nervous investors sell after halving it's going to send the market down so I'm not optimistic.

Once we are approaching the time of halving like this, everyone seems to be more skeptical about what may be the results in this we all are into, let's forget about what CZ may say or not and face the reality of what we know concerning this, since we are all into it altogether, for the fact that halving is near the corner doesn't mean some will still not loose, it may only differs from each other because as some are making profits others may be loosing, they are the categories that fall under influencers like CZ.

Yes sure, I understand that part why he was playing safe, he is the founder of Binance, so every statements he makes will affect people views on Binance. Though I would expect something more original and valuable opinion from someone at his calibre, and for if he doesn't actually have a more valuable opinion, he doesn't need to write such generic and redundant opinion.

I think same expectations lie with those of us that have been actually reading and also currently holding a significant amount of Bitcoin. Even if you have not around all this while I think you can also be on same page as others concerning the whole Bitcoin halving discussion and the effects of the bull showing up after the halving. Currently now in the crypto both newbies , amateur and also veteran Bitcoin enthusiast are all curios on the possible faith of Bitcoin come the time of the halving and also it's passing.

He is experienced in this field and we should not take his statement lightly. There are many things that this time won't be like the previous one. BTC won't make an all time high which it did in every cycle after halving. Bitcoin gains popularity faster than every other top entity in the market so it makes many people nervous to think this will last forever. I totally agree with what CZ said and expect a similar scenario.

With me it's the other way round: I constantly overestimate future BTC prices. But Bitcoin can't go parabolic all the time. It has to slow down at some point. Just think - if BTC = 1.000.0000 it just can't do another x20 and jump directly to 20.000.000 per coin in a single title. So I think x2 to x3 can be considered great performance for the next cycle.

Yeah I saw the pump and dump, but next time when it happens I don't think that its going to be that big (at least not in the short term) as price didn't come back to the one before that fake news meaning people are really expecting it.


That's true. I mean, I don't wanna sound pesimistic, but I just don't wanna hype myself and then be disappointed when it happens and that doesn't affect the price as much as I hoped it will.


I am consistently underestimating future BTC price so I hope that I am wrong/too cautious this time as well and we see even bigger pump. But even if that doesn't happen, $150k would be quite nice.

Did you see what the fake news about the SEC approving the BTC ETF to BlackRock did? I was quite skeptical about the price effect such an ETF would have because I thought all these investors could buy BTC without it, but when you look at all these companies involved in it, we are talking about $15+ trillion under management just from BlackRock and Fidelity and it is logical to assume that part of these funds will be directed towards Bitcoin.

In addition, the effect on the price is hidden in the fact that these funds have to buy actual BTC in order to be able to sell shares in these funds, which means that the demand will surely increase. In the event that the effects of the halving coincide with the approval of the SEC (and they will not be able to say no indefinitely), the perfect situation for a big bull run would be created.


I would also be quite happy with some $150k as the next ATH, especially if we consider that it is more than x5 of the current price which should definitely be taken into account.

He definitely speaks from experience and I think those of us that have been around for a few cycles are expecting the same thing. There’s a bit of hesitation in wondering if the market can really keep doing the exact same thing every four years, but until it doesn’t (with no FTX like evil actors) then I’ll be a believer and investor.

Since we already broke one tradition (bitcoin going below the all time high in the previous bull run), I think that we should prepare ourselves fot the possibility of delayed bull run.


Consdieting the current situation int the world, I would be very surprised if bitcoin performs at the similar level of the previous bull run. After all, its only natural that ROI keeps getting smaller as the bitcoin price keeps going up. I would personally be more than happy with let's say 2x from the previous ATH.


You expect it to have such a big impact on bitcoin price?

It is a completely logical question, but at the moment no one can answer that question because no one can know what the future brings us. There are two options, the first of which includes that history will repeat itself no matter what and that we will have another big bull run, and the second is that we will break the tradition and that the four-year cycle will become a thing of the past.

I personally believe that the bull run will happen as it was the case in the past, we just need to remember that the last bull run produced an ATH that only exceeded the last ATH by 3.5 times, and it is possible that the next one will be smaller than that. Of course, I'm saying all this without taking into account the possible approval of the spot ETF in the US, whether it happens at the beginning of 2024 or 2025 is actually not too important.

CZ has a habit if making obvious observations on twitter, as he knows his audience will relate to it and then respect him more. CZs respect is inflated and this is actually one of the reasons why...he is a smart marketer.

The amount of damage this guy has done to the market (but also a lot of good) is what should be in focus, but no one wants to do that research, and even less people want to care about the research if it were to be released

Sigh...the meme generation - low attention, no care of anything that takes more than  5 seconds to understand.

These are just based on Bitcoin's historical price movements before and after halving. We don't need to change anything here. Since the halving is getting closer, we should be gearing up and not miss out on the action.

CZ is one of the most successful figures in the crypto world, owning one of the biggest, if not the biggest, exchanges. He has a solid reputation for not hyping things like Elon Musk does. He's just laying out the facts, backed by figures and events from the past. So, it would be crazy to go against the trend; that would put us on the losing side as investors.

The more people enjoy the bullish sentiment, the sooner a bull run is likely to come. That's what we all want, right?

CZ just summed up(echoed) what actually happens as we approach the halving and post-reaction of the markets after the halving itself.

• 1st we see a slight bump of price as we get nearer to the actual halving date
• 2ndly markets don't go up instantly to match up the hype, maybe because others sell immediately after seeing no real rise from the halving
• 3rdly when the dust settles, markets now show their true direction and price is bullish at this time
• Lastly a hard fall follows after a lot of users sell to get their profits and the cycle is complete (no one talks about this part)

I think it's safe to say we know the drill that comes with Bitcoin halving.

Plus just because there's a "halving", which limits the supply side, it doesn't truly mean that it will increase the demand side. Would Bitcoin really surge in a recession environment simply because the inflation per block was cut in half?

We should also take the money printer into consideration.

As observed in this chart, the movement of Bitcoin went with the positive year on year growth of the global money supply, as well as the negative contraction year on year.



Although the halving makes Bitcoin more scarce, and therefore "more precious", the demand side is also as important.

Shower thought, did Satoshi put the expansion and the contraction of the global money supply into consideration when he made a design-decision of Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle?

 

There are free resources to learn about Bitcoin, Bitcoin halvings. People are too lazy and did not do own research, did not learn anything. When an influencer makes a tweet, they believe that knowledge is right and automatically believe it.

Knowledge sharing must be verified too because not all sharing are correct.

Controlled supply.
Compare bull markets.

You hit the point, and there is really nothing more to say, at least not for those who are not big fans of the great crypto messiah who is trying (obviously successfully) to sell them general knowledge as something of his own. This is the same man who claims that 99% of people involved in "crypto" will lose their digital assets because they store them in non-custodial wallets.

The man literally claims that 99% of these people are stupid, and I think it's stupid to trust such a man.

CZ's post is very moderate and balanced, as he's merely talking about his point of view and acknowledges that it doesn't mean that there's a causal relation there or that history predicts the future.
I certainly agree with the first two points about discussions and about the price not doubling overnight, but #3 is pretty easy to check, so let's check. However, I must say that I initially thought he means that the price reaches an ATH in a year (so a year must pass), but not I think he means that it happens within a year several times.

Bitcoin halving of 2016 happened in July. Within a year from then, Bitcoin did reach new highs of $1800, $2400 and $3k, so I support it's technically true, but what it's missing is the rapid bull marker of September-December of 2017, in which Bitcoin reached almost $20k and which is considered the ATH of that time period.
Let's also have a look at halving of 2020, which was in May. Within a year, there were again multiple ATHs, such as almost $40k in January 2021, almost $58k in February 2021, and $63.5k in April 2021. So, again, it's true, but then in November 2021, the price reached over $67k, which isn't within this time frame.

So I guess he's correct, even though this view does not point to when the market reaches the top.

It'll be interesting. I think there are A LOT of people who now have a stubbornly ingrained negative view towards Bitcoin and Crypto, and I think that dampens how many new multitudes of first timers will be flooding into Bitcoin in FOMO as compared to past cycles. Like it is literally at the point where if you simply tell someone you own Bitcoin lots of people will assume you are some sort of scammer or toxic "crypto bro". Token scams and meme coin shills and NFT shills of the last cycle have given the whole space a bad reputation with a lot of people. That plus assuming the US is still an antagonistic regulatory environment to the space in 2024/25 I think will also blunt the sort of next wave of corporations venturing into Bitcoin holding that we saw start in 2020/2021 as well as Americans in general.

No doubt there will be a bull market, but I think it could be dulled due to these things. I feel like we need to go through another cycle / another few years before people stop hating on the space so much. Like if this is a smaller bull run, and therefore also a much less drastic crash than normal afterwards, and if the regulatory environment in the US clears out over the next few years (mostly if we get an SEC chair that isn't biased against Bitcoin and Congress makes sensible rules for the space to both protect it and guide it), I think Bitcoin could have a much stronger end of the decade than middle of the decade.




One good thing is it seems like the whole smart contract world is fading (and I think its not just because we're at that part of the market cycle). NFT pictures, random thousands of crypto apps, meme tokens, all the various layer 1 smart contract chains...kinda feels like they are all dying. Even Musk trying to shill Dogecoin doesn't do anything more than give it a small temporary boost before it settles back down at its 6 cents. People are just tired of the endless fluff in the market. I'm sure some old and new ones will get hyped again this cycle, but I think that fact that literally ALL the big hyped up next gen super awesome L1 smart contract platforms from last cycle petered out and are essentially dead has kinda started to convince the market that Bitcoin and to a much lesser extent Ethereum are the only legit things to put money into and to trust to have future viability. Like, who cares about Polkadot, Cardano, Luna, Avalanche, Solana, and so on at this point?? Not many people and I think it'll be real hard to convince people to get back into them or newer ones this next cycle. I don't expect any of those hyped up chains from last cycle to hit their 2021 highs in this upcoming cycle, so as with everything else other than Ethereum (so far) they will be going toward zero against Bitcoin long term.

I feel like we are gonna start to see things shift back to a Bitcoin focus over the next decade as people get more and more tired of all the cr*p in the altcoin world and people gradually get at least a little bit educated on Bitcoin, and as Bitcoin gets integrated into classic finance systems like with ETFs eventually, btc offered on Wall St exchanges, through banks, btc payments slowly starts gaining more acceptance, etc. I think the world is starting to realize nobody wants a thousand apps with a thousand different tokens and that whole idea was completely bonkers in the first place. The tokenization of crypto apps was a race to the bottom. What makes sense is apps using a single universal currency, not a thousand different cheap weak ones.