Topic: CZ's view on Halving - page 5. (Read 683 times)

CZ is talking from his experience, and anyone that has experience previous halving already know that this is what happens close to the halving and after the halving. I believe that the past three halving, bitcoin followed the same pattern and this next one wouldn't be different, history will be repeated again. Everyone is waiting patiently and watching how the market is moving to see if there will be much expectations from the halving, and maybe that is when more nocoiners will start buying, when they are carried away by the hype. Just keep on accumulating and forget about whatever anyone is saying about the next bull run because bitcoin price will shock a lot of people.

I posted this on another thread, but it seems more appropriate here.
It seems to be pretty neutral at the moment. But everyone seems to  think that the halving next year will trigger a massive bull rally, and this confuses me.
If everyone already knows about the halving, the wouldn't it be baked in? I seem to be the only one that thinks it ain't gonna make a difference in the price

the reason why (2&3) is simple
mining farms do not pay daily bills to need to sell daily.
instead they mine and hoard seasonally

before even mining they contract in bulk deals of asics for a 2 year life cycle and also they dont pay daily/weekly electric but buy allotments of GW at a preferred bulk price to cover 2 years of continual mining

because they bought 2 years of running. it doesnt matter what the markets do daily. they have 2 years to mine so there is no point stopping/starting or pool jumping to altcoins to play the markets. they just continually mine no matter what and then count up the coins rewarded at the nd of the season

it is at the end of these contracts where they negotiate the next seasons deal where they then look at the amount of coin they hoarded vs cost vs market price to then calculate the value they need to continue operation. it is at this point that they will move the market to meet their expectations

this is usually done a year before a halving and a year after halving
which is why the historic patterns show the start of a bull is the year before halving and the end of the bull peaks a year after the halving

however. market traders know this pattern and will take opportunity to fight the pattern for maximum gain, so this pattern may not continue as expected because other traders expecting the pattern will trade against it for their benefit

Well, past halving histories never disappoints the ATH stuff. For me the predictability is present but what if we're wrong this time and what if we just experience stability in price and not some ATH? If we're about to see new ATH by 2024-2025 then I'd say we  better position right now.

Unfortunately, many people do not realize that subsequent halvings, from a fundamental point of view, have less and less impact on the price, and on the other hand, it is already becoming a large and significant asset tossed around by external forces such as wars, economic crises, etc.


So, in my opinion, a scenario is possible in which bitcoin will behave unexpectedly, because for example the news that China intends to keep part of its reserves in bitcoin so as not to have to buy American bonds. Such news will pump price in 2024 and after halving period will be "take profit time" instead of massive pump.

Have you asked this question?, if people already know that price will hit ATH several times after halving, why aren't they buying right now? Answer is really easy, they don't want to risk it, everybody is just waiting for the hype to start so they can ride the waves and earn max profits.


Anyways it's not recommended to use or at least hold any amount of crypto in centralized exchanges. Don't forget that.

Even though it was said directly by the CZ account, but looking at the overall picture that he said this was only a big picture of some of the things that happened from several previous halvings so it was quite natural that he said that because indeed from several halvings that he had always felt before it became an experience and what he said was based on what we had felt from several halvings that occurred.

I think regardless of whether it's CZ or not everyone who has experienced the halving and lived through it to this day will talk the same way because it is something like this but indeed on the other hand for part of the hype, expectations and news anxiety etc. things like that we cannot prevent even if it is said to be dirty but still we will still deal with it.

The article states about CZ that the next most likely bullish year is 2025, which is very relevant and suggests that this guess is very much in line with some other influential people.

Any news from outside will be widely discussed on the forum and indeed this is not new considering many speculations guessing the same year.
Encouraging beginners to invest from now on is important for their awareness before it's too late and into the halving year although I suppose after that there is still time for them to keep investing.

Whatever he described is pretty much what happened in the past, but I think it will be similar — probably with just a quite-delayed step #3; simply because bitcoin holders are betting too much on the #3 part that I think it will be decently delayed.

I saw this on the news few months ago: 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-cz-predicts-next-bitcoin-bull-run

It was about CZ predicting bitcoin price after bull run. That was July 5th.

CZ is right but that is all we all know on this forum and not new to us. But probably this can encourage the novices to invest in bitcoin some weeks or months before halving.

Either this is coming from CZ or not, halving is going to take place next year and obviously almost all the three items listed above are coming to pass, though am also surprised that cz is talking like this for the first time not considering his own interests first being an exchange or introducing something that could help distract people to invest on his Binance coin, alot of people have been giving their own side view also concerning halving and if this is all coming from CZ, then i think he's less considerate about himself this time.

This isn't CZ's view on the BTC halving, this is the common knowledge or view about BTC halving based on past events, and any person who spends a little time to read about the halving and what happens before or after the halving would know this. If history repeats itself, which it usually does, it could follow the same pattern again.

I came across a feed today that shares the view of the Binance CEO on halving and I thought I should share it with you guys as I see it informative and no information is too small.



I can't agree more on this as part of what he states is happening now. The "chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope" and speculation are now littering the internet.

Insightfully, this also advises calm and a need not to miss out at the same time for at least a full year.