I would think that your first full cycle in BTC, you should not be trying to guess whether the BTC price is high or low, since you might spend too much time waiting for BTC prices that might not come, and merely crossing into ATH does not cause an ability to be able to assess a top or that the BTC price will correct.
It is your good advise but the fact is people mainly do their "Predictions on Bitcoin price, ATH in their first bull market". It's really hard to eliminate this wrong thinking and approach in a first market cycle. People can read this advice many times but very few of them actually absorb it and apply it for their investment. Having this advise available for reading is good, because after reading it and experience a full cycle but unfortunately (as expected too) miss Bitcoin ATH, people will recognize their bad approach and improve in next market cycles.
But, hey you are free to do what you want, if you believe waiting is a strategy that is better than just buying regularly for a number of years prior to attempting to make those kinds of assessments.
If they don't do worse things like leverage their positions and consider making loans for investment is a healthy and safe approach, their initial capital will not be lost and they surely will have second opportunity in this market.
Part of the problem is trying to figure out both tops and bottoms, so there can be a lot of failure/refusal to accumulate bitcoin that come from that because sometimes the BTC price will continue to go up, even if some folks start to wrongly presume that a top is forming, and they might not even be close to being in a position to even really know.. .so safer to just keep accumulating, and yeah, maybe in some sense it is easier to accumulate while the BTC price is going down and staying flat for a decently long period rather than accumulating while the BTC price is going up, yet with BTC each has its perils since there are many times that the BTC price might go up, but then it does not come back down to previous prices that were available prior to it going up.
Your point about refraining from leveraging is also a good one. Historically in bitcoin, there has been no way that you could lose as long as you were erroring in the side of mostly ongoing buying and/or accumulating as long as you stayed into bitcoin for several years, even after about 3 years, almost everyone would be in profits even if starting out buying at the top, but yeah, there have also been ways that winning strategies of accumulating bitcoin through buying end up becoming losing strategies, and one of the ways is by using leverage and another way is buy employing selling in order to try to buy back cheaper.
I would think that your first full cycle in BTC, you should not be trying to guess whether the BTC price is high or low, since you might spend too much time waiting for BTC prices that might not come, and merely crossing into ATH does not cause an ability to be able to assess a top or that the BTC price will correct.
It is your good advise but the fact is people mainly do their "Predictions on Bitcoin price, ATH in their first bull market". It's really hard to eliminate this wrong thinking and approach in a first market cycle. People can read this advice many times but very few of them actually absorb it and apply it for their investment. Having this advise available for reading is good, because after reading it and experience a full cycle but unfortunately (as expected too) miss Bitcoin ATH, people will recognize their bad approach and improve in next market cycles.
That thoughts is temporary only since for sure they could figure out what is right and wrong approach towards how they deal with bitcoin. Since for sure they realize that they are just wasting their time waiting for that cycle and lots of opportunity missed due to constant waiting.
Many people read the advise but for sure they would follow what they think is right but if they fail and test that their known method is not working for sure they would shift their attention to other things which they think useful to try. That's why sometimes its good for people to learn a lesson in hard way since they won't realize that what they follow is wrong until they fall down from those wrong actions and decisions made.
The first whole cycle and perhaps even two cycles could be a bit grueling in bitcoin, especially since many time within traditional investing, people need to spend 30-40 years accumulating capital before really getting to a place where they might have enough to really start to feel that they are building a decently good-sized nest egg (or investment portfolio), and even with traditional investment, there can end up being so much denigration of value that people might feel that they are never getting anywhere in terms of building wealth.
In bitcoin, thoughts can be similar in terms of accumulating wealth and getting feelings of making progress, and also there are not guarantees, even though historically even guys who had been ONLY investing relatively modest amounts of money had ended up getting into quite strong financial positions after a cycle or two of ongoing BTC accumulation.
Even though the upwards BTC price slope might not be as steep as previously, there still seems to be quite a lot of ongoing evidence to support a strong investment thesis for bitcoin including someone starting right now to invest consistently, persistently and ongoingly with whatever amount of discretionary income that can be spared to put into bitcoin, and sure these days, I tend to recommend at least putting $100 per week into bitcoin, yet it is understandable that there are some folks who cannot afford that much and so they have to work within their own means, which might ONLY be something like $10 per week, so they do what they can in terms of ongoing persistent and consistent BTC accumulation and then reassess their situation at various points along the way in terms of measuring how their BTC accumulation is going in terms of building their wealth.. and yeah, they get that through ongoing BTC accumulation through buying techniques not by fucking around with selling or trading and/or trying to figure out if the BTC price is up, down or sideways..
Just buy at whatever price for the first cycle or longer and then maybe some time down the road after purely accumulating bitcoin through buying, they might start to get into a better position to allow their stack size to inform them if they might adjust their strategy in one way or another. They have more options once they might have had reached a status of sufficient and/or overaccumulation of BTC, but it can take a relatively poor person more than 10 years to reach such a point or maybe even if the traditional investor takes 30-40 years to get to a point of overaccumulation, a bitcoin investor might be lucky and able to cut such timeline in half to 15-20 years. But, yeah, of course people are going to vary in terms of the amounts that they are able to put into the investment over the years and how much they are able to put in will partly effect how long it takes to get to a position of sufficient accumulation or even over accumulation, and it is quite doubtful that anyone is going to get to a position of sufficient or overaccumulation by fucking around with selling techniques, especially in their earliest stages of accumulating bitcoin.
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The term invest money we can afford to lose has not been on the trend anymore and investors do not see it as financial advice. The reason is that the money invested gradually piles up to become money, we don't want to lose so when we see a price downturn in an asset, we invested in many tend to be afraid of losing the money.
Every investor that invests in Bitcoin wants to profit at the end of the day. Whether they are in for the short term or long term, whether they invested their disposable income or money meant for certain purposes into it. At the end of the day, they expect a return, losing in the investment is never an option for them.
Of course, if a person spends years and years investing, his investment portfolio might grow to such amounts that it becomes tempting to sell, and so a lot of folks get lured into either stopping their BTC accumulation or selling too much too soon... so that is a bit of a danger to get lured too much into the value of the holdings, so some measures likely do need to be taken for the person to not to be lured into either stopping BTC accumulation or into selling too much too soon.
There is not any easy correct way, and each person has to find a way to balance their temptation to either stop accumulating or their temptation to cash out.. and it becomes even more difficult with an asset like bitcoin that has been so historically volatile and there is no reason to expect it to discontinue with its volatility into the future. One of the most guaranteed things about bitcoin is its volatility, without really knowing the short term direction, yet having some presumptions that in the longer timelines of 4-10 years or longer the trajectory should hopefully be upward, and there are no guarantees with the upward trajectory, either - so each person (or even government or institution) holding BTC has to figure out their own tolerance for volatility and adjust their position size according to their tolerance and their other individual financial and psychological factors.