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Topic: Death to the mercenary miners! (Read 4100 times)

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 19, 2011, 05:10:39 PM
#44
You've made the mistake of assuming the only "supply" of coins is miners.  That's not true.  The BULK of the supply is actually people who already own coins putting them up for sale.

I haven't made that assumption at all. I claim that without additional coins being mined and brought to market, supply would equal demand and price would be stable OR supply would be less than demand and prices would rise until supply did equal demand.

This is just a restatement of the notion of supply and demand.  We pretty much accept it as an axiom that prices will go higher, lower or sideways if supply is increased, decreased, or maintained, when demand is held constant.

Your real argument seems to be that some portion of the people selling bitcoins are doing so in error.  They would be better off, in your opinion, if they would only stop doing things than they think are right, in their opinion.

Be careful when thinking that you can make decisions better for everyone else than they can for themselves.  There are horrible things lurking down that road.

Quote
The 7200 coins per day are not a "significant" supply to the market. 

yes. yes they are. imagine an enclosed 5 gallon tank that is completely filled with water. Now add another pint of water. What do you think that does to the pressure? That's why small cap assets fluctuate so wildly.

Liquids don't really compress.  The pressure would be infinite unless the tank burst, and you don't need a pint for that, even just a drop will do.  Pedantic, I know, but this post got me in the mood.

My point exactly. Bitcoin has relatively low capitalization right now which means that small changes in supply or demand cause dramatic changes in price.  This volatility scares away investors both in coins themselves but also builders of infrastructure, which is worse.  It works for me, because I buy coins on the cheap, but it is bad for both the miners themselves and for the growth of the Bitcoin economy. It's better for everybody if we wait and sell near all time highs. That way we can reduce volatility and make money rather than increase volatility and lose money.  It's win-win or lose-lose. 
donator
Activity: 4760
Merit: 4323
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
July 19, 2011, 02:17:52 PM
#43
High volume is not a measure of miners selling bitcoins, OR of speculators selling/buying... For example...

1 man mines a coin, sells it.  This causes price to drop.

A trading bot buys coin, resells it $0.05 higher than buys it again $0.05 cheaper, rinse and repeat.  This causes high volume.

Conclusion:
Miners selling coins is what is driving the price down.  Trading bots buying and selling coins repeatedly is driving the volume up and stabilizing the price so you can see the nice steady decline that miners liquidating their coins are causing.

I hope that is simple enough.  

To make another point, if 7,200 coins are being created daily, it would take an injection of around $100,000 per day just to keep the price stable.  Lets say 1/2 of those miners are not selling the coins... That is still $50,000/day that needs to be injected into bitcoins from other currencies.  Obviously, we are not seeing that, hence, the price is declining.


*I don't believe early adopters selling coins are causing the price to drop.  They are in no hurry to cash out or they already would have and wouldn't be causing a slow motion crash due to them being early adopters and believing in the BTC...
kjj
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1026
July 19, 2011, 02:12:46 PM
#42
You've made the mistake of assuming the only "supply" of coins is miners.  That's not true.  The BULK of the supply is actually people who already own coins putting them up for sale.

I haven't made that assumption at all. I claim that without additional coins being mined and brought to market, supply would equal demand and price would be stable OR supply would be less than demand and prices would rise until supply did equal demand.

This is just a restatement of the notion of supply and demand.  We pretty much accept it as an axiom that prices will go higher, lower or sideways if supply is increased, decreased, or maintained, when demand is held constant.

Your real argument seems to be that some portion of the people selling bitcoins are doing so in error.  They would be better off, in your opinion, if they would only stop doing things than they think are right, in their opinion.

Be careful when thinking that you can make decisions better for everyone else than they can for themselves.  There are horrible things lurking down that road.

Quote
The 7200 coins per day are not a "significant" supply to the market. 

yes. yes they are. imagine an enclosed 5 gallon tank that is completely filled with water. Now add another pint of water. What do you think that does to the pressure? That's why small cap assets fluctuate so wildly.

Liquids don't really compress.  The pressure would be infinite unless the tank burst, and you don't need a pint for that, even just a drop will do.  Pedantic, I know, but this post got me in the mood.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 19, 2011, 01:29:32 PM
#41
That's like saying the main reason why the Yankees won is because the Red Sox lost. It's true, but it doesn't explain anything.
It's only necessarily true if they played in the same game. There is an almost infinite amount of options which can make you wrong, so if you can't see a single one of them it must be because you don't want to.

There are an infinite number of options that CAN make me wrong, but none that actually do. You don't seem to understand the difference between proximate cause and cause-in-fact. I'm arguing cause-in-fact and you are disputing proximate cause. Basically you are arguing against a position I am not even taking.
legendary
Activity: 1284
Merit: 1001
July 19, 2011, 01:20:27 PM
#40
That's like saying the main reason why the Yankees won is because the Red Sox lost. It's true, but it doesn't explain anything.
It's only necessarily true if they played in the same game. There is an almost infinite amount of options which can make you wrong, so if you can't see a single one of them it must be because you don't want to.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 19, 2011, 12:02:59 PM
#39
I haven't made that assumption at all. I claim that without additional coins being mined and brought to market, supply would equal demand and price would be stable OR supply would be less than demand and prices would rise until supply did equal demand.
You're still wrong, though. There's nothing forcing those who buy coins to keep them or not sell unless the price is at least what they paid for them. The main reason why there is demand for bitcoins is that buyers expect the price to go up. When enough people stop expecting that they will try to sell. That's why the price is no longer $30, not because miners sell coins.

That's like saying the main reason why the Yankees won is because the Red Sox lost. It's true, but it doesn't explain anything.
legendary
Activity: 1284
Merit: 1001
July 19, 2011, 11:37:29 AM
#38
I haven't made that assumption at all. I claim that without additional coins being mined and brought to market, supply would equal demand and price would be stable OR supply would be less than demand and prices would rise until supply did equal demand.
You're still wrong, though. There's nothing forcing those who buy coins to keep them or not sell unless the price is at least what they paid for them. The main reason why there is demand for bitcoins is that buyers expect the price to go up. When enough people stop expecting that they will try to sell. That's why the price is no longer $30, not because miners sell coins.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 19, 2011, 10:25:00 AM
#37

I called my econ prof, he said, "Yes" and I agree with him.

Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy, especial econ professors.

Quote

You've made the mistake of assuming the only "supply" of coins is miners.  That's not true.  The BULK of the supply is actually people who already own coins putting them up for sale.

I haven't made that assumption at all. I claim that without additional coins being mined and brought to market, supply would equal demand and price would be stable OR supply would be less than demand and prices would rise until supply did equal demand.

Quote
The 7200 coins per day are not a "significant" supply to the market. 

yes. yes they are. imagine an enclosed 5 gallon tank that is completely filled with water. Now add another pint of water. What do you think that does to the pressure? That's why small cap assets fluctuate so wildly.
legendary
Activity: 1284
Merit: 1001
July 19, 2011, 10:17:05 AM
#36
I didn't quit my day job. I can afford to wait. Time is on my side, but not on yours.  You'r only goal was to extract profits from speculators like me. Now, your future looks bleak while I see many buying opportunities ahead for myself.
So you're basically really angry at the miners because they sold you coins for a much lower price than you think they are worth. Has anything ever made you happy?
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
July 19, 2011, 09:47:04 AM
#35

I already addressed that. It's churn due to free trading. Put another way, if NO (as in zero) miners sold any of their coins, do you still think prices would fall? 

I called my econ prof, he said, "Yes" and I agree with him.

You see, supply > demand right now, so the price falls.
If supply < demand, the price would rise.

You've made the mistake of assuming the only "supply" of coins is miners.  That's not true.  The BULK of the supply is actually people who already own coins putting them up for sale.

The 7200 coins per day are not a "significant" supply to the market.  The other 105,000 coins being offered for sale ARE.  So even if the miners' coins were gone, the price would still fall, because people aren't buying coins for what sellers are currently asking.  As evidenced by the MUCH larger trading volume. 

Now, if the trading volume in a day was just the 7200 coins for that day, you'd have a point.  Since it's 16X that, you don't. 
full member
Activity: 142
Merit: 100
July 19, 2011, 09:37:51 AM
#34

I already addressed that. It's churn due to free trading. Put another way, if NO (as in zero) miners sold any of their coins, do you still think prices would fall? 

You are really something special. IF NO miners would ever sell any ( as in zero ) coins, SMARTS like you wouldn't hold any. There would be no price for them also. How's that brainiac ?!
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 19, 2011, 09:21:59 AM
#33

So you are saying the entire volume has been miners selling off their immediate gains and then bots recycling the coins back and forth? Really?


yes, the downward pressure in excess of demand is almost entirely caused by mercenary miners, the fools who made long-term capital investments based on short-term trends and who are now trying to minimize their losses at the expense of everyone who is working toward the long-term stability and viability of the project.  The last laugh is on them, however.  They need us more than we need them.

I got in again below $13 thanks to their desperation. :-D

Wrong.  This can easily be proven.

6 blocks / hour = 144 blocks / day
144 blocks = 7,200 BTC / day
Today's volume at Mt. Gox (so far): 113,985

So, if every miner sold every coin, as soon as they mined it, they would only amount to 6% of the total volume (so far, gets smaller as the day goes on).  Clearly, miners selling coins as soon as they mine them has very little impact on the total volume of trades happening.  As a miner selling a coin can only happen once.  That same coin is then being bought and sold, on average, another 16 times in that day.  Miners aren't doing it, speculators are.

Umad?

I already addressed that. It's churn due to free trading. Put another way, if NO (as in zero) miners sold any of their coins, do you still think prices would fall? 
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
July 19, 2011, 09:14:34 AM
#32

So you are saying the entire volume has been miners selling off their immediate gains and then bots recycling the coins back and forth? Really?


yes, the downward pressure in excess of demand is almost entirely caused by mercenary miners, the fools who made long-term capital investments based on short-term trends and who are now trying to minimize their losses at the expense of everyone who is working toward the long-term stability and viability of the project.  The last laugh is on them, however.  They need us more than we need them.

I got in again below $13 thanks to their desperation. :-D

Wrong.  This can easily be proven.

6 blocks / hour = 144 blocks / day
144 blocks = 7,200 BTC / day
Today's volume at Mt. Gox (so far): 113,985

So, if every miner sold every coin, as soon as they mined it, they would only amount to 6% of the total volume (so far, gets smaller as the day goes on).  Clearly, miners selling coins as soon as they mine them has very little impact on the total volume of trades happening.  As a miner selling a coin can only happen once.  That same coin is then being bought and sold, on average, another 16 times in that day.  Miners aren't doing it, speculators are.

Umad?

 
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 19, 2011, 09:05:16 AM
#31

So you are saying the entire volume has been miners selling off their immediate gains and then bots recycling the coins back and forth? Really?


yes, the downward pressure in excess of demand is almost entirely caused by mercenary miners, the fools who made long-term capital investments based on short-term trends and who are now trying to minimize their losses at the expense of everyone who is working toward the long-term stability and viability of the project.  The last laugh is on them, however.  They need us more than we need them.

I got in again below $13 thanks to their desperation. :-D
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
July 19, 2011, 08:34:17 AM
#30
How'd you get your coins?  Oh yea, Miners who sold them.

Nuff said.
yes but the amount of coins newly introduced into the market is less than the old coins that are constantly being bought and sold again.

6.853 million (in circulation) < 14.147 million (left to be mined)

Nuff said.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016
Strength in numbers
July 19, 2011, 01:37:13 AM
#29
"Mercenary miners" are totally fine imo. They are selling us coins and security. Really there isn't anyone anywhere selling something better  Smiley

There is no reason at all that the people with hardware and tech skills need or should be the same ones who provide the value to coins by desiring and holding them in the face of high offers.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1016
Strength in numbers
July 19, 2011, 01:16:56 AM
#28
How is the Price driven down can someone explain it to me?

bumb

At any given time there is a set of people with a desire to buy at certain prices. A seller generally tries to find the highest price and satisfies it with a sale, now that is desired and the highest desired price is a little lower. Make sense? It's pretty easy to see inside of one market, but the forces exist beyond any one meeting place of buyers and sellers.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
July 19, 2011, 12:56:48 AM
#27
How'd you get your coins?  Oh yea, Miners who sold them.

Nuff said.

Yeah and thanks for that. Got some more at $12.8 yesterday :-)

hero member
Activity: 868
Merit: 1000
July 18, 2011, 06:28:34 PM
#26
How'd you get your coins?  Oh yea, Miners who sold them.

Nuff said.
yes but the amount of coins newly introduced into the market is less than the old coins that are constantly being bought and sold again.

Which indicates that a lot of traders are speculating - which is no less mercenary than miners cashing out as they go and is a perfectly legitimate reason to enter a market anyway. 
legendary
Activity: 812
Merit: 1002
July 18, 2011, 06:14:19 PM
#25
How'd you get your coins?  Oh yea, Miners who sold them.

Nuff said.
yes but the amount of coins newly introduced into the market is less than the old coins that are constantly being bought and sold again.
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