Topic: Dec 18 to Jan 1 diff thread setup picks are now Closed!!! - page 2. (Read 7572 times)

You are wrong by only 0.1, because it will finish as +11.6% and no it's not about my prediction.

I think we will see something more like 11.5%, but I am often wrong...  

Rich

It's +%12 now and my guess was +12.5, I hope it raise a little bit more in last 132 blocks.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,651,042,649 (+11.99%)
Adjust time:   After 132 Blocks, About 19.2 hours
Hashrate(?):   751,893,547 GH/s

And it was doing so well when I looked in at +11.22%..... 

Guess I'll have dial back my SP20 and see if I can coast into 11.25%.

We have a lot of picks from 9.9 to 12.7  most are filled in say ⅔ of them so we may get a winner  thurs or late weds

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,355,319,441 (+11.67%)
Adjust time:   After 198 Blocks, About 1.2 days
Hashrate(?):   796,181,071 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.3 minutes
Updated:   22:45 (3.0 minutes ago)

latest block total is below  so do we seesaw down again? or do we shoot up to 190 or so?

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,141,323,381 (+11.44%)
Adjust time:   After 212 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):   787,548,290 GH/s

Too many people at %10-11-12. If it finishes like that probably somebody win the prize this time.

Price is picking up to a little which is nice.  At 433 right now which is not to bad.  So seems recovery from holiday cash-out.

We will see but I'm hoping we can get 450 in next week or two.   I  really want the floor to move to around there.  But seems we have not done it yet.

I picked as late as I could.  I would rather be in the 11 area then the 10 .3  I picked.

looks like 158 blocks were made yesterday.

 That fits my bitfury has a cooling issue  theory.

Clod weather is due by the  farm the have on Jan 1  lets see what they do then.

Just to hot dog a little bit, I did choose on 12/23.

looks like bitfury turned up the farm a bit!

I was just checking my usb miners and saw this on the screen:



8 blocks solved in ~10 minutes, that's just crazy!  At least it helps clear the tx backlog...

My guess continues to be a contender.

there are 27 possible slots  from 9.9 to 12.5  we have 18 of them covered.  so ⅓ chance of a rollover to .516 btc


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (+11.32%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,026,281,982 (+11.32%)
Adjust time:   After 241 Blocks, About 1.5 days
Hashrate(?):   796,535,338 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.4 minutes
6 blocks: 52.9 minutes
Updated:   17:35 (5.2 minutes ago)

oh as an aside it was not cold near the bitfury plant in Russia and blocks today are at a 158 pace.
it is supposed to be warm in Russia tomorrow so I wonder if we stay close to 160 again.

It will definately be around +10% or so. Most likely it will be those gaps that nobody chose and we move over on to next week.

yeah and at   +11.10%    I stand a small chance of winning it.

The main contenders are below:

+9.9   = mavericklm
+10.0 = zebedee
+10.1 = Valkir
+10.2 = VirosaGITS
+10.3 = philipma1957
+10.5 = lanfeusst
+10.7 = Mikestang
+11.1 = 64dimensions >>>>>>>>>>>  would get prize if contest stopped now!
+11.2 = alh
+11.3 = Tupsu
+11.5 = pusttiu
+11.6 = ingiltere
+12.0 = Swordsoffreedom
+12.1 = wpt1wpt1
+12.2 = d57heinz
+12.3 = keystroke
+12.4 = vapourminer
+12.5 = frank0929

Bitwisdom Morning:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,824,023,966 (+11.10%)
Adjust time:    After 282 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    790,666,580 GH/s

Good news for now is price is seeming to be on it's way upwards again.  It's around 429 so not bad another 20 dollars and I will be happy in short term.   And hopefully in coming weeks we can go above that.

let me see if I can find the temps in Russia  as I suspect it is bitfury and the new plant has a cooling issue


here is what I posted on last spec thread.



I would  wonder  if they are having an over heating issue.  Someone needs to see how cold it is at the new  mine  in

 Tbilisi, Georgia


http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UGTB/2015/12/17/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Tbilisi&req_statename=Georgia&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=37545#calendar


dec 1   41-48    170
dec 2   37-51    158
dec 3   39-44    141
dec 4   35-42    154
dec 5   33-46    173
dec 6   28-48    157
dec 7   37-46    149
dec 8   41-51    171
dec 9   39-50    174
dec 10 37-41    212   cold day best test?
dec 11 30-42    157
dec 12 26-44    169
dec 13 28-50    137    hotter day backed off?
dec 14 26-42    197   cold day good test?
dec 15 30-50    185    does not quite match
dec 16 33-46


I can't quite correlate  temps with blocks worth a shot to keep looking at it.


and here is a set of newer numbers
dec 18  26-42f 170
dec 19  24-46f  150
dec 20  23-50f   164
dec 21  39-50f   152
dec 22  44-57f   150
dec 23  42-51f   157
dec 24  42-50f   138
dec 25  44-50f   163
dec 26  35-51f   171
dec 27  44-51f   202
dec 28  44-50f   152




the best I have is  they suffer heat creep  when outside temp approaches 50f

so they turn gear down a bit. let the oil immersion tanks cool


An easy way to find this to be true is the temps go to 5f- 20f  and the bounce up and down stops.

All speculation of course.  But somebody is cranking gear up and down.

now the number temp for the:


 29th is 36-54
30th is  35-51
31st is  33-39  so a big spike?
1st is   31-37  big again
2nd is 17-33   big again
3rd is  11-27   big again


http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:00000.1.37545

this set of temps coming should kill my theory or help it seem more plausible.

And today again was a slightly slower day as we finished at 150 blocks which is only 6 over which is +4%.

So no idea why this type of gear is switched on and switched off.

we are at  (+11.54%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,230,458,912 (+11.54%)
Adjust time:   After 366 Blocks, About 2.2 days                   366 blocks left  so maybe Weds we will know is there  a winner or a rollover
Hashrate(?):   818,039,989 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes
Updated:   22:10 (3.7 minutes ago)

Network hash rate is estimated based on the time it takes to solve blocks at the current difficulty, there is no absolute measure of total network hash rate and when you think about it how could there be?

Pool shares are measure by the respective pools and reported accordingly.

my two guesses involve China and/ or bitfury.

Bitfury developed more hash power and has stated they opened a 40 megawatt plant 40 megawatt with immersion cooling in Georgia .

 I estimate they could have 175 to 225 ph  and when you do big 40 block drops and jumps you need to turn on and off about 200 ph.
Somewhere I did a post on temps in Georgia Russia and they have been pretty warm.  So maybe the immersion cooling would prefer below 0c  and it has been above 0c  .

Second choice is a Chinese ghost city that has 20 or 30 ph in old gear and is turned on and off when allowed to by corrupt officials.

Could be both.  but when you see these 40 block swings five to six times the last  5 weeks it is a power off power on deal.

The worst part is  the big number is most likely how much hash there really is.

I have not developed working theory of why you would do it if you have the ability to stay high power all the time. So I think it may be a cooling issue it it is all bit fury and a power availability issue if it is all China.

I do think it is both not just one as I do not think China has a full 200ph in ghost cities.