Dec 18 to Jan 1 diff thread setup picks are now Closed!!! - page 3.

RichBC

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Quote from: d57heinz on December 28, 2015, 04:17:32 PM

Kano explained it in this thread here .. I made mention to my wallet giving me a warning that we had double the expected amount of blocks in a 4 hr period.. here is the start of the post..
Kano gives the statistics of this being variance.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13379545

Best Regards
d57heinz

Very interesting, and says that this is a real increase, still leaves unanswered why it is switched on & then off again?

A question for those that know? How is the network Hash Rate & Individual Pool shares measured? Is it all worked out from the speed that blocks are solved & who solved them or is there other information involved?

Rich

d57heinz

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Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks

Kano explained it in this thread here .. I made mention to my wallet giving me a warning that we had double the expected amount of blocks in a 4 hr period.. here is the start of the post..
Kano gives the statistics of this being variance.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13379545

Best Regards
d57heinz

RichBC

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 03:27:59 PM

Quote from: RichBC on December 28, 2015, 03:14:52 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 02:26:24 PM

Quote from: Mikestang on December 28, 2015, 01:49:52 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 10:26:10 AM

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off. A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago. I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.

but 157 138 163 171 202 146 the bold numbers are gear turning off.

that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment.

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash. Which will happen some time in 2016.

Surely some of the variance is just "Luck", a Day is a short period of time. Yes there is growth but some of the apparent swings are just High & Low days that need to be averaged?

Rich

sure 163 to 171 I can believe that is variance. Not 171 to 202 to 147 too much swing to fast for the entire network.

The bad thing is it makes the 202 more believable as top size of network. which means the network pedal to the floor is more then 1000ph

I agree it's a very large swing, and unfortunately statistics & probability not at all my thing, but suspect it is still possible that it is just variance? However if not what is the "theory" as to why all this additional capacity would be turned on for sufficiently long to affect a single Day & then be switched off again?

Rich

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: RichBC on December 28, 2015, 03:14:52 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 02:26:24 PM

Quote from: Mikestang on December 28, 2015, 01:49:52 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 10:26:10 AM

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off. A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago. I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.

but 157 138 163 171 202 146 the bold numbers are gear turning off.

that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment.

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash. Which will happen some time in 2016.

Surely some of the variance is just "Luck", a Day is a short period of time. Yes there is growth but some of the apparent swings are just High & Low days that need to be averaged?

Rich

sure 163 to 171 I can believe that is variance. Not 171 to 202 to 147 too much swing to fast for the entire network.

The bad thing is it makes the 202 more believable as top size of network. which means the network pedal to the floor is more then 1000ph

RichBC

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 02:26:24 PM

Quote from: Mikestang on December 28, 2015, 01:49:52 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 10:26:10 AM

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off. A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago. I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.

but 157 138 163 171 202 146 the bold numbers are gear turning off.

that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment.

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash. Which will happen some time in 2016.

Surely some of the variance is just "Luck", a Day is a short period of time. Yes there is growth but some of the apparent swings are just High & Low days that need to be averaged?

Rich

philipma1957

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Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Mikestang on December 28, 2015, 01:49:52 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 10:26:10 AM

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off. A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago. I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.

but 157 138 163 171 202 146 the bold numbers are gear turning off.

that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment.

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash. Which will happen some time in 2016.

Mikestang

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 28, 2015, 10:26:10 AM

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off. A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago. I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

better today

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,883,429,302 (+12.24%)
Adjust time:   After 443 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):   853,108,949 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.2 minutes
Updated:   10:20 (3.3 minutes ago)

https://blockchain.info/blocks

390662 (Main Chain)   2015-12-28 15:20:31

390565 (Main Chain)   2015-12-28 00:04:49

98 blocks in the time it takes to do 92 blocks or a 154 block pace for today.

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

ezeminer

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Lie down. Have a cookie

Quote from: notlist3d on December 27, 2015, 05:42:04 PM

Quote from: adaseb on December 27, 2015, 02:25:52 PM

Today is a horrible day. Caused a huge spike. Will probably end up being +20% for the day.

At least price went up a little it's around 426... so not the 450+ but still going up so it's not all horrible. Bitwisdom still does not look horrible but it could be wrong if some spikes happen:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    104,628,550,777 (+11.96%)
Adjust time:    After 551 Blocks, About 3.4 days
Hashrate(?):    849,586,844 GH/s

Price Down from that 450, Hash up to 0.85 EH, Difficulty almost to 105B
Price now at 428

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   105,031,825,635 (+12.40%)
Adjust time:   After 487 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):   856,769,229 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes

Boy this could get scarier.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: d57heinz on December 27, 2015, 08:20:00 PM

Had quite the boost in speed the last two days.. its bitfury f2pool and bitmain leading the charge. http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a We did for the first time hit 1 exahash over 24 hour period.. Looks like we might well exede that by end of january.. They trying to squeeze out all that old tech.. Hell at this rate its gonna squeeze out the new aswell Undecided

Got a good glimpse of us hitting 1 exa over 24 hour here.. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png And for whoever runs that graph.. thanks for updating it so we can see past 800 peta:)

edit also one thing to note kncminer also doubled there hash. could be variance but its a nice bump..we will see over time

Best Regards
d57heinz

yeah diff looks like up up and away. last three days are nuts

516 blocks to go.

Today was a 205 block day

So

205 = 61 blocks over
171 = 27 blocks over
163 = 19 blocks over so in 3 days we were 107 blocks over

539 vs 432 this is a +24.76% growth rate thank goodness it is just the last three days

look at this chart

d57heinz

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Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks

Had quite the boost in speed the last two days.. its bitfury f2pool and bitmain leading the charge. http://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/7d?c=m&t=a We did for the first time hit 1 exahash over 24 hour period.. Looks like we might well exede that by end of january.. They trying to squeeze out all that old tech.. Hell at this rate its gonna squeeze out the new aswell Undecided

Got a good glimpse of us hitting 1 exa over 24 hour here.. http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png And for whoever runs that graph.. thanks for updating it so we can see past 800 peta:)

edit also one thing to note kncminer also doubled there hash. could be variance but its a nice bump..we will see over time

Best Regards
d57heinz

adaseb

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Today ended up being +30%. There is a huge spike on the Bitcoinwisdom charts. Most likely it will be around +10% for the diff increase.

notlist3d

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Quote from: adaseb on December 27, 2015, 02:25:52 PM

Today is a horrible day. Caused a huge spike. Will probably end up being +20% for the day.

At least price went up a little it's around 426... so not the 450+ but still going up so it's not all horrible. Bitwisdom still does not look horrible but it could be wrong if some spikes happen:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    104,628,550,777 (+11.96%)
Adjust time:    After 551 Blocks, About 3.4 days
Hashrate(?):    849,586,844 GH/s

adaseb

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Today is a horrible day. Caused a huge spike. Will probably end up being +20% for the day.

Tupsu

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Quote from: philipma1957 on December 26, 2015, 05:22:26 PM

+3.4 = edonkey
+5.6 = Tmdz
+5.7 = kilo17
+6.0 = adaseb
+6.3 = wlefever
+6.5 = Last of the V8s
+6.6 = Herbpean
+7.0 = tss
+7.4 = tertius993
+7.7 = Chris_Sabian
+7.9 = flikflak
+8.0 = Amph
+8.1 = Biodom
+8.2 = kipper01
+8.9 = Lituation
+9.0 = skuser
+9.2 = vortexz
+9.3 = ezeminer
+9.4 = blindminer
+9.5 = RichBC
+9.6 = indiemax
+9.9 = mavericklm
+10.0 = zebedee
+10.1 = Valkir
+10.2 = VirosaGITS
+10.3 = philipma1957
+10.5 = lanfeusst
+10.7 = Mikestang
+11.1 = 64dimensions
+11.2 = alh
+11.3 = Tupsu
+11.5 = pusttiu
+11.6 = ingiltere
+12.0 = Swordsoffreedom
+12.1 = wpt1wpt1
+12.2 = d57heinz
+12.3 = keystroke
+12.4 = vapourminer
+12.5 = frank0929
+12.7 = ailikun
+13.0 = needmoney
+13.3 = page14
+13.5 = icey
+14.0 = crazy987
+15.0 = cakir

No new accounts

The contest is free. You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 26, 2015, 05:22:26 PM

...........
The quote wall is done!
..........

Is done forever.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

https://blockchain.info/blocks

390480 (Main Chain) 2015-12-27 13:51:35
390360 (Main Chain) 2015-12-27 00:09:29

121 blocks in 14 hours we should be 84 that is +44% it is a 207 block pace for the day. Of course I am projecting 14 hours into 24 but still 207 pace!

wlefever

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Merit: 1001

Quote from: flikflak on December 27, 2015, 05:08:23 AM

Networkspeed @ 0.92 exa hashes/s... I think we will break the 1000 PH/s in January 2016

I never saw that bump coming before the new year. That was a realy bad blow to reach over 950 Ph!

The price drop was related to some China rumor of Bitlicense like regulation like in the past. We will see what develops around that and if the price support picks back up with this hashrate increase.

flikflak

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Networkspeed @ 0.92 exa hashes/s... I think we will break the 1000 PH/s in January 2016

Tmdz

hero member

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

In the last few hours there was a 40ph jump sitting at 764 right now. Combined with the price dip this will hurt as munch as last round. I'm really worried this won't let up being there are so many s7 being shipped out and miners are receiving them. One can only hope this pressure let's up soon.

Mikestang

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Merit: 1000

Most of China does not celebrate christmas, right? So that holiday wouldn't be expected to have any effect on the big mining farms I guess. Still another impressive jump, because 10% network growth again is a lot of machines coming on line at this point.

Topic: Dec 18 to Jan 1 diff thread setup picks are now Closed!!! - page 3. (Read 7572 times)