Two points. The amount displayed in, e.g., bitcoinwatch is completely bogus. A transaction contains a change. If you transfer $10 to a third party from an account that has $100000, the banking system transfers $10, not $10 + $99990, while Bitcoin does the latter.
I didn't know that. I wonder how much of the transaction volume is change. This definitely changes the ratio, but it's difficult to know to what.
Secondly, there are so many transactions because they are mostly free. When the fees become a norm, the transaction volume will slow down.
I agree with this.
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Also, a successful >50% attack would not lead to a complete security breach where all bitcoins can be stolen. It would only open the possibility of double spends by an attacker, so the value of such an attack does not equal the market value of bitcoins. This suggests the risks of lower difficulty/market-cap could be low.
I know that but a lot of people here downplay the consequences of the >50% attack. It is true that there is rather little to gain for the attacker compared to being honest. Therefore, I think we may never see a ">50% attack for profit". But for attackers that only want to make damage (for example a competition to Bitcoin), it can really make havoc. It's the mother of all DoS attacks. A >50% attacker can:
1. Completely halt all confirmations.
2. Reverse all transactions (so halt retroactively) and put them on hold.
3. Annihilate recently mined coins and all transactions where the coins were used (if the chain fork is longer than 120 blocks).
4. Double spend his coins.
And the point that is frequently missed:
5. Allow anybody to double spend. When the chain is forked, all transactions go into a memory pool of the miners. The attacker can be "nice" enough to remove them from his memory pool and allow anybody to connect, submit a new double spend transaction and confirm it. It can allow some non-fraudulent transaction and you will not know what is right and what is wrong.
Yes, the attacker can disrupt transactions, but cannot steal other people's bitcoins, so the monetary gain from such an attack is relatively small. As for an attack for competitive reasons, there is good reason to assume this would also not be perceived as being profitable by a potential attacker, because a disruption to bitcoin would benefit all competing currencies, not just the attacker's, so the attacker would be paying a large expense, to help not just himself, but his competitors as well, thus minimizing the benefit to himself.
As I wrote above, the value of transactions is bogus. The only think non-bogus is the total BTC value (money supply). Relatively to money supply, Bitcoin is expensive.
I agree that given I assumed the transaction volume reflected transfers between parties, my calculations are not applicable.
I'll add though that the difficulty does not need to scale with total BTC value. There will come a point where an attack will simply not be feasible by any party due to the level of difficulty, and after that point difficulty does not need to increase much with further increases in market capitalization.