Topic: Denial is fading, fear is approaching (Read 6728 times)
It's really warming up
Just out of curiosity, does a new tax year for most of the world count as "major good news"?
That's the thing. As one fiscal year closes, the market in that country can't easily hedge for the next . They close their books. There is no overlap. The size of their economy determines how much the market can take up the slack. 
Just out of curiosity, does a new tax year for most of the world count as "major good news"?
By analogy, today feels a lot like when this was posted. I like to look back and reflect on people's attitudes then. Then, as now, there was no real bad news to go with the sell offs... just people giving up on Bitcoin.
Hm. As you can see above, I was around for that one. Feels different to me this time, but I could be wrong of course. 380-400 might well be the bottom, but I don't see the bear market as over yet.
There's no short (or certain) answer to that, but the gist of it is that a number of longer term (mainly momentum based) indicators are turning (or have turned) decidedly bearish in this market, but didn't in mid-2013. Add to that various explanations that make some sense to me (like those based on EW theory), and I can see several scenarios: a quick, painless recovery (not very likely imo), another month, maybe 2 of slowly trending down, but then recovering quite swiftly (more likely than the previous, and the scenario I sort of hope for), or the worst case of a really protracted bear market that will make most of 2014 look pretty bleak in retrospect. Neither of the 3 scenarios says anything about the long term success of Bitcoin by the way, just what I expect to happen in the coming months.
This is a deeper bear market than last time around. Last year, we had at most five weekly red candles, after which price stabilized and generally began climbing again. This time, we've had only one uptick in the past 11 weeks, which is pretty crazy for any market. So no, I think it will be a considerable amount of time before a recovery happens... if it happens.
Does that really make sense? Because it's taken so long to recover... it will take much longer to recover?
Coupled with the fact that sentiment is still quite negative, even compared to a few weeks ago. I think it will take something major to break out of these doldrums. Just my opinion, but by looking at the charts and expecting a reversal any time soon is just blind optimism.
I think that there is a certain problem arising, namely that the percentage price increase in Bitcoin is outstripping the adoption rate.
Adoption is going up, but not as fast.
The reason for this exuberant price increase compared with adoption is that more and more of those invested in Bitcoin have "doubled down", with a very large portion (compared with other investment markets) going "all-in".
This in turn keeps volatility high, because there is more hope and fear in the market.
So the bear market may continue for longer than expected as investors realise that adoption is not keeping up pace.
those who wanna sell dont be stupid.. while u are selling they are shorting + buying back.. LOL!
Dont post in every thread, your posts wont up the price. Stop denying and get whatever profits you can or see your fortunes deplete in front of your eyes. Dont be a fanboy, be smart
This guy is betting 1 BTC that price will be above $500 in one week.
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/21q2wi/daily_discussion_sunday_march_30_2014/cgffeea
Any takers?
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/21q2wi/daily_discussion_sunday_march_30_2014/cgffeea
Any takers?
1 thing for sure.. bitcoin is stronger then last year.. becuz many infrastructures are up.. the atms, more business started to accept it.. HOLD ON TIGHT GUYS!!! price gona soar 200-400+ in 1 week with just 1 good news LOL! it can be amazon or ebay or paypal..
those who wanna sell dont be stupid.. while u are selling they are shorting + buying back.. LOL!
Damn FUD , even if its true, why post it ?
We are discussing the different phases in a bubble deflation.
There is no bubble.
-B-
This is a deeper bear market than last time around. Last year, we had at most five weekly red candles, after which price stabilized and generally began climbing again. This time, we've had only one uptick in the past 11 weeks, which is pretty crazy for any market. So no, I think it will be a considerable amount of time before a recovery happens... if it happens.
Does that really make sense? Because it's taken so long to recover... it will take much longer to recover?
Coupled with the fact that sentiment is still quite negative, even compared to a few weeks ago. I think it will take something major to break out of these doldrums. Just my opinion, but by looking at the charts and expecting a reversal any time soon is just blind optimism.
This is a deeper bear market than last time around. Last year, we had at most five weekly red candles, after which price stabilized and generally began climbing again. This time, we've had only one uptick in the past 11 weeks, which is pretty crazy for any market. So no, I think it will be a considerable amount of time before a recovery happens... if it happens.
Does that really make sense? Because it's taken so long to recover... it will take much longer to recover?
This is a deeper bear market than last time around. Last year, we had at most five weekly red candles, after which price stabilized and generally began climbing again. This time, we've had only one uptick in the past 11 weeks, which is pretty crazy for any market. So no, I think it will be a considerable amount of time before a recovery happens... if it happens.
I dunno. Seeing these same patterns time after time makes me a little giddy. 
This community is Human nature on massive steroids.
Gold (for example) had a big bull run in 1979/1980 and it took over 25 years to get hot again.
We have had 3 HUGE Bull runs in under 3 years.
Welcome to the.......something........What is this place?....Where am I?
I dunno. Seeing these same patterns time after time makes me a little giddy.
To be honest I am still not able to read these phases good, this was my second bubble only, in first one I felt bit of fear, in this one much less so I need one more bubble before being able to do it (and before not caring too much as I'd be rich )
)
Strong emotions in a marketplace is a good thing, in my opinion.
Fear is fading hope is approaching.
By analogy, today feels a lot like when this was posted. I like to look back and reflect on people's attitudes then. Then, as now, there was no real bad news to go with the sell offs... just people giving up on Bitcoin.
Hm. As you can see above, I was around for that one. Feels different to me this time, but I could be wrong of course. 380-400 might well be the bottom, but I don't see the bear market as over yet.
His conclusion was similar to mine, except I thought drop to 420 if there actually is bad China news, then a bounce back to 450. I guess if April 15th passes and the Chinese are still sitting around with their dicks in their hands with no news at all, it will be back to 550-590.
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