Topic: Denial is fading, fear is approaching - page 3. (Read 6829 times)

Thanks for the comment (and honesty).

Regarding the volume of trades, maybe you misunderstood or missed my point - I am watching the buys and sales go through on clarkmoody or http://trading.i286.org/ and I notice the size of the "blocks" are generally MUCH LARGER on the sells. This is purely observational, the intuitive part, if I can call it that, is that "I get the feeling" those large block sizes are early adopters and miners. But even then, it makes sense. I mean who can afford to buy 100, 200, 1000 shares? That is a lot of money in a small small market. Let's say I can afford to buy 100 shares, if I sold I would probably not do it at around the same time as other guys selling those large blocks, which is what I see happening. And the buys (as you say being smaller in block size) are no where nears as much as the larger blocks, that is why we are going down. That part is purely volume, but I was talking block size.

I might be mistaken as I am no expert with "watching the tape" and no one else has commented on this that I have seen. But it does fit my theory. 

Thanks for posting. I agree enthusiastically on (almost) all points. I also very much appreciate that, despite your trust in sound TA (which I generally share), you also acknowledge that any sufficiently strong good news will throw out all the (technical) predictions out of the window, at least for a while (I've been saying something similar in several different threads in the past).

There's one minor? maybe not so minor? point of criticism. One of your arguments appeals to the intuition that all the large volume trades are sales, while the heavy lifting of buying is done by the small guys (I'm paraphrasing here), and then another comment following a similar line.

I would like to point out that this is a somewhat naive form of volume-based analysis you're doing there. A bit as if I would look at a candlestick chart (which you said is more your specialty), and state "there are three green candles in a row, that must mean we're in an uptrend".

More specifically, the situation you describe could also be the result of large holders of bitcoin selling en masse, then rebuying, in smaller portions, at a lower price. I'm not saying that's necessarily the case, but your argument seemed like an appeal to intuition (about volume), and that alone is probably not up to the task of analysing the market. See for example chodpaba's posts of the past days for a volume based argument why the current downtrend isn't sustainable, and decide for yourself if you see any merit in his statements (I more often than not do).

My apologies (sort of), be more clear! I don't remember all usernames ("good guys" and "bad") ehehehe
 

Watch $68, $60 next.

don't forget to wipe and flush

Yes, indeed this thread is a perfect example of how much denial is still in the air. But I would add that all this aggression against bearish analysis is also an indicator that fear is starting to spread.

When I said "this bubble needs to pop" before the crash from $266 to $50, people just mocked me.

When I said "bottom will probably be around $50ish" after the April 10th crash, people just replied "keep dreaming about cheap coins"

Now they seem to be getting nervous and edgy, that means something.

Well, from the look of it, I think a lot of bulls are still stuck in denial phase, and they will be all the way to the bottom

I praise for the day the price stop falling, and start to raise, and those bulls say 'I told ya!' when the price double from 10$ to 20$. 

we will see after i finish my dump

i guess we as professional traders can agree to disagree on this technical analysis point

we are going into fear

we are already returning to normal we just ended the capitulation phase

I hope you realize I teasing you.
Usually when you make an asumption you have to say , around, like , near , something like.
Yet you went and 82.82.82.

I was waiting for the 82 thing not to happen just to tease you so you won't precise values again

I've mentioned that number many times. I never said magical. As a matter of fact I stated in MANY posts that I am not (and did not) play it for a bounce.
I am clear, this down move is incredibly dangerous to trade on (as my Clark moody beeps on the sells like crazy).

Again, please stop taking statements out of context. That is manipulative. And if you start searching, don't take pieces of my posts out of context either. We'll leave that to the States and intelligence agencies...

About your technical arguments , what happend to that magic 82 support  you've been talking for a few weeks?

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...

So let me understand: the time to be bullish and buy bitcoin was when it was at 250$ or what? 

good post Rampion.

The vitriolic reactions in this thread lead me to think that we are still mostly in "denial" territory, alas we've been there for a long time already and people are starting to get really jumpy. But the fear is certainly coming. I pretty much agree with your sentiment of "let's get this over with quickly". It's funny how you can't post bearish analysis without being accused of spreading FUD 

Up until the very back end of this month, I felt that there was still a way to look at the charts and feel short term bullish. But IMHO Rampion is right, the technical indicators are now looking distinctly bearish. Like many in this forum, I'm extremely long-term bullish on Bitcoin, and sometimes I find it hard to overrule my emotion and just trade the evidence. If I'd been better at this, I would have moved into cash earlier that I did. The major reason I read the speculation board at least once a day is to get confirmation of the things I'm seeing to help me trade the facts.

Why "quote" someone (me) and insert things they never said? Mod, how about some action here? Isn't there something against board slander? 

My last prediction (yesterday) might be coming true as we speak (TA at work):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.21960

At $78 a coin the price still looks rather "frothy" if you ask me. You could have picked up 6 coins for that back in Jan 2013.

I don't sense we are near capitulation yet. That will come later, once we pass the 1/2 century mark.

Post me a chart with fancy lines drawn dude
I'm all about changing my bids lower at the drop of a hat