This is a rational and logic-based approach to piece together a theory as to the recent DHS actions regarding Mt Gox.What was the probable cause to start an investigation?Clues:
Only Mt Gox's Dwolla account was frozen - No other exchanges utilizing Dwolla were effected. This is cleary not a move against Bitcoin as the Gov't always acts quickly and decisively with cases involving widespread organizations. Furthermore, Mt Gox exchange and transfers of bitcoins have not been affected. This was only directed at funding through Dwolla to Mt Gox.
Court order stats information came from an individual. The only reasons someone would take the time to inform them, and spend months making transactions that they could trace them,
is that the person lost money! What likely happened is that someone heard about Bitcoin during the recent media hype, transferred a large sum of money into MT Gox through Dwolla, then lost it all on Satoshi Dice (like this guy)
http://www.reddit.com/r/SuicideWatch/comments/1e6iro/i_have_lost_60000_gambling_with_bitcoin_i_have/ 1 day later, Satoshi Dice blocks US players While they claim that this not "in any way, related to the recent Gox/Dwolla court order issue" but a preemptive measure to protect their shareholders. "Note that this decision does not mean that online gambling is illegal in the US, nor does it mean that Bitcoin gaming is illegal. However, the courts have not been clear on the definition of gambling, nor
on what would constitute 'legitimate gaming,' nor are jurisdictions properly defined, and thus this is a proactive measure to protect those involved in the project. Further, to clarify, SatoshiDice is hosted in Netherlands, Iceland, and Ireland, and
has never utilized US currency or engaged with the US banking system whatsoever." Voluntarily cutting off their biggest source of profits, the timing, and their attempts to distance themselves legally are what lead me to my conclusion.
My Theory: A large gambling loss of Bitcoins on SatoshiDice by a US resident lead to the DHS investigation and eventual seizure and forfeiture of MT Gox's US bank account. As US anti-internet-gambling laws would be difficult to prove (requires that they knowingly funded gambling), the DHS instead filed charges against Mt Gox due to non-compliance of FinCEN regulations.
This is only a hypothesis! I am not claiming to be right (why I am posting in the SPECULATION thread), just trying to make sense out of the recent events. There are many countless other possible motivations of the complainant, I am just hypothesizing on one possibility. We may never know the motivations.
Other Theories (post them in the comments and I'll add if they are based in reason):
- Coinbase attempt to take US market from Mt Gox... amazing strategy if true (low possibility, located in Washington State however)
- New investor lost large % during the crash (very high possibility)
- Bank employee discovered bank filing discrepancy by MT Gox (very low possibility, bank isn't located in Maryland)
What do you think? What are some other possible motivations?