Dice - Chances of rolling the above or below consecutive times

dooglus

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Quote from: BetterBets.io on January 13, 2016, 05:16:55 PM

After 8 months of watching player bets I've seen 22 loss and 23 win streaks but Dooglus explained it best.

I don't know if you've seen this thread before, but the longest losing streak at 49.5% on Just-Dice back when we accepted Bitcoin was 32:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7060900

Interestingly, the 2nd longest was 5 bets shorter, at 27.

I would be interested to know if anyone has ever seen a longer losing streak at 49.5% than 32 in a row.

Roughly speaking, the odds against 10 in a row is one in a thousand, 20 in a row is one in a million, and 30 in a row is one in a billion.

So that 32 in a row is a one in four billion shot. The losing streak ended with bet number 594,791,171 and that counter includes all bets, not just those at 49.5%.

Edit: here's a screenshot of the 27-streak:

leancuisine

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 01:08:35 AM

ok thanks, can anyone tell me what their personal streak is for rolling the same result on a 50/50 flip? i think im at around 8 or 9 and happened a few times

I've got 26-28 loss streaks a few times on DiceNow. Tongue

Made over 10 million rolls there though. Wink

Nimbulan

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its always the same possibility you bet on, it does not matter if you roll it after 10 losses or 20 losses the chance to lose will still be the same 50 per cent, thats why you shouldnt use any strategies

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 01:08:35 AM

ok thanks, can anyone tell me what their personal streak is for rolling the same result on a 50/50 flip? i think im at around 8 or 9 and happened a few times

The biggest losing streak i had was 12 rolls, all were low and on exact 50% odds. I was playing basic martingale and it was enough to bust my whole
balance. The funny thing is that i rolled 13th roll, but with bet amount 0 since i was busted, and it was a winning one..
8-9 in a row is nothing unusual, i get that streak quite often.

bob123

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If its 50% chance to win..

its 0.5 ^ n

with n = number of rolls: with 3 rolls => 0.5^3 = 1/8

So chances are you win 3 times 50/50 in a row are 12.5%.

BetterBets.io

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Quote from: Shogen on January 13, 2016, 05:14:59 PM

Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 01:08:35 AM

ok thanks, can anyone tell me what their personal streak is for rolling the same result on a 50/50 flip? i think im at around 8 or 9 and happened a few times

I don't make 50% bets but 49.5% bets most of the time. For your reference, my worst ever losing streak with 49.5% bets is 14 or perhaps 15 if my memory serves me right.

After 8 months of watching player bets I've seen 22 loss and 23 win streaks but Dooglus explained it best.

Shogen

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 01:08:35 AM

ok thanks, can anyone tell me what their personal streak is for rolling the same result on a 50/50 flip? i think im at around 8 or 9 and happened a few times

I don't make 50% bets but 49.5% bets most of the time. For your reference, my worst ever losing streak with 49.5% bets is 14 or perhaps 15 if my memory serves me right.

dooglus

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Quote from: ndnh on January 08, 2016, 03:39:04 AM

(Odds of a single roll)^{(Number of consecutive rolls)} x 100

So, you are rolling >49.9999 twice,
Chances of winning both are 0.50² x 100 = 25%

This is correct, but perhaps a little hard to understand.

To give a simple example, if you toss a coin 3 times, the odds of getting 'heads' all three times is 1 in 2*2*2 = 1 in 8.

You can see this by listing all the different results you could get:

HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
THT
TTH
TTT

There are 8 different combinations. They are all equally likely. Each of them is a 1-in-8 chance.

So in general, if you have a chance 'c' of winning, and you play 'n' times, the chance of you winning all 'n' of your games is c*c*...*c where there are 'n' c's in the product.

That's also known as c^n, or "c to the power n".

For the coin-toss example, c is 0.5 and n is 3, so the overall chance is 0.5^3 = 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125 = 1/8

marioantonini

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I have tested more time to various dice, my maximum continue lose to 50% (but later i have finish found and autobet is stopped) is 18 , but the most unlucky situation is 6 continues lose to 90% probability to win

NorrisK

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Quote from: edmundduke on January 08, 2016, 07:25:57 AM

Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 12:58:53 AM

Anyone know the percentages on rolling Hi/Low consecutive times?

first time is 50/50 but as you keep getting the same result, the odds have to go down right? I mean i know its always 50/50 for 1 roll but how do you calculate off of multiple rolls?

Well as other mentioned it is 50/50 on every next roll but the chances of getting many on one side is lower. There is a reason there havent been too many ridiculous loosing streaks. Theres even a strategy that uses this that is called pre-rolling but there is no strategy that works for certain.

That is not true. The chance for each individual roll will always be the same.

It is a different story when you prospectively look at the streak. For your next five rolls for instance to be high, the chance is quite low.

But to roll high again after a 5 roll high streak, the chance is the same as for every roll.

gizane

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 12:58:53 AM

Anyone know the percentages on rolling Hi/Low consecutive times?

first time is 50/50 but as you keep getting the same result, the odds have to go down right? I mean i know its always 50/50 for 1 roll but how do you calculate off of multiple rolls?

There is no how much percentage on each roll. You can determined if you lose 2 times the next one you will win it. This is not how dice games roll. All of it is depends on your luck too and there is house edge too which mean you need to think about that too for each roll because there is no 50% chance of winning and losing

mobnepal

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 12:58:53 AM

Anyone know the percentages on rolling Hi/Low consecutive times?

first time is 50/50 but as you keep getting the same result, the odds have to go down right? I mean i know its always 50/50 for 1 roll but how do you calculate off of multiple rolls?

From this it is sure you are new to dice sites because dice roll have no any pattern but some unfair dice site may have pattern if they don't follow provabably fair to proof each roll. I will suggest not to start thinking of pattern because it is unlikely dice site to have pattern.

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 12:58:53 AM

Anyone know the percentages on rolling Hi/Low consecutive times?

first time is 50/50 but as you keep getting the same result, the odds have to go down right? I mean i know its always 50/50 for 1 roll but how do you calculate off of multiple rolls?

It depends on the winning probability you've selected.If you have selected 50% then obviously for every roll you will have 50/50 chances of winning which is totally random .No,the odds should not go down because the moment you select 50% winning chances the odds are fixed at suppose x1.22 which will remain constant through out the betting period on the same streak.

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Quote from: edmundduke on January 08, 2016, 07:25:57 AM

Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 12:58:53 AM

Anyone know the percentages on rolling Hi/Low consecutive times?

first time is 50/50 but as you keep getting the same result, the odds have to go down right? I mean i know its always 50/50 for 1 roll but how do you calculate off of multiple rolls?

Well as other mentioned it is 50/50 on every next roll but the chances of getting many on one side is lower. There is a reason there havent been too many ridiculous loosing streaks. Theres even a strategy that uses this that is called pre-rolling but there is no strategy that works for certain.

it does not matter on how much looses you get even after 50 reds in a row there is still 50 per cent chance that you will loose and no prerolling strategies will work as i once lost 35 times in a row

edmundduke

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 12:58:53 AM

Anyone know the percentages on rolling Hi/Low consecutive times?

first time is 50/50 but as you keep getting the same result, the odds have to go down right? I mean i know its always 50/50 for 1 roll but how do you calculate off of multiple rolls?

Well as other mentioned it is 50/50 on every next roll but the chances of getting many on one side is lower. There is a reason there havent been too many ridiculous loosing streaks. Theres even a strategy that uses this that is called pre-rolling but there is no strategy that works for certain.

ndnh

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 12:58:53 AM

Anyone know the percentages on rolling Hi/Low consecutive times?

first time is 50/50 but as you keep getting the same result, the odds have to go down right? I mean i know its always 50/50 for 1 roll but how do you calculate off of multiple rolls?

(Odds of a single roll)^{(Number of consecutive rolls)} x 100

So, you are rolling >49.9999 twice,
Chances of winning both are 0.50² x 100 = 25%

fullypak

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Quote from: pinoycash on January 08, 2016, 01:43:13 AM

My longest losing streak was in freebitco.in
i am on alternate mode 1000sat base bet, X2 on lose - i have lose 13 times in a row. i dont know if that was rigged or not, but it always happens.

I think this freebitco.in got more house edge. I had a few referrals on that site long time ago and using that money just for fun used auto betting and I got continuously 19 loses.

After that I didn't play much on that site.

Everybitbit

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i think we cant guess hi/lo for how many times,
but i ever got like low 13 times streak.. for losing and busted.
but i never win 13times for winning streak, just weird.. my luck sucks maybe. Grin

pinoycash

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My longest losing streak was in freebitco.in
i am on alternate mode 1000sat base bet, X2 on lose - i have lose 13 times in a row. i dont know if that was rigged or not, but it always happens.

Naoko

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Quote from: Legit Bit on January 08, 2016, 01:08:35 AM

ok thanks, can anyone tell me what their personal streak is for rolling the same result on a 50/50 flip? i think im at around 8 or 9 and happened a few times

personally for me is 22 streak on 50% chance.

Topic: Dice - Chances of rolling the above or below consecutive times (Read 1170 times)