Did Satoshi expect Bitcoin to last this long? - page 2.

MicroGuy

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Quote from: Gameroid on April 14, 2015, 05:40:49 PM

Just wondering what you guys think was this just a project that he made whilst being drunk in university and decided to release it and it caught on fast or did he know that it was going to get this big?

Satoshi was a scientist at a major power company looking for ways to artificially increase the world's power demand. The POW (POwer Waste) technology he invented earned him an early retirement along with numerous bonuses and stock options.

JayCrypto

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I guess he have never thought about the potency of his project. It is like facebook, at the very beginning it started like a stupid project, just to spot someone or to have a faster comunication inside the colleges. I strongly belive that satoshi was like that, he invented somenthing just to make a dream become real, as like when you build somenthing for the unic aim to do it. What happened after was amazing and unpredictable

Kyraishi

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Quote from: Gameroid on April 14, 2015, 05:40:49 PM

Just wondering what you guys think was this just a project that he made whilst being drunk in univeristy and decided to release it and it caught on fast or did he know that it was going to get this big?

Did you see any of his coins moving?
Nope.

Why is that?
Because there will be a time where he is going to need them Wink

BTC_Superman

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Yes, he did. He knows what he is doing and I am sure he had confidence about that.

BitmoreCoin

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on April 24, 2015, 03:10:51 PM

Quote from: Lorenzo on April 14, 2015, 06:30:50 PM

According to this very early post made by Satoshi in the Cryptography Mailing List two weeks after Bitcoin was released, he believed that decentralized electronic currencies such as Bitcoin would be used for many different applications in the future:

Quote from: satoshi

I would be surprised if 10 years from now we're not using electronic currency in some way, now that we know a way to do it that won't inevitably get dumbed down when the trusted third party gets cold feet...

Another quote from February 14, 2010:

Quote from: satoshi

Right. Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating. In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume.

And another one from July 14, 2010:

Quote

I anticipate there will never be more than 100K nodes, probably less. It will reach an equilibrium where it's not worth it for more nodes to join in. The rest will be lightweight clients, which could be millions.

One of the last quotes made by Satoshi in late 2010:

Quote

No, don't "bring it on" (Wikileaks). The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the way. I make this appeal to WikiLeaks not to try to use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage.

Satoshi probably thought that Bitcoin had a fair chance of being successful in the long term but he probably did not expect it to become so successful in such a short period of time. The growth rate Bitcoin experienced in its first 3-4 years would probably have surprised him and I doubt he could have predicted that it would become so mainstream so quickly. Notice how Satoshi talks in terms of decades, not years. Would he have known that Bitcoin would reach $1,200 less than 4 years after its creation and be accepted by major retailers like Overstock and Microsoft in less than 5? I doubt it.

Fascinating post.

Thanks for this.

Unbelievable how intelligent Satoshi is/was.
I can't even begin to try & imagine the IQ a man like that posesses.
Incredible, maybe one day he'll be looked back on as one of the geniuses of the last 500 years.

He is dedicated.

LFC_Bitcoin

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Quote from: Lorenzo on April 14, 2015, 06:30:50 PM

According to this very early post made by Satoshi in the Cryptography Mailing List two weeks after Bitcoin was released, he believed that decentralized electronic currencies such as Bitcoin would be used for many different applications in the future:

Quote from: satoshi

I would be surprised if 10 years from now we're not using electronic currency in some way, now that we know a way to do it that won't inevitably get dumbed down when the trusted third party gets cold feet...

Another quote from February 14, 2010:

Quote from: satoshi

Right. Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating. In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume.

And another one from July 14, 2010:

Quote

I anticipate there will never be more than 100K nodes, probably less. It will reach an equilibrium where it's not worth it for more nodes to join in. The rest will be lightweight clients, which could be millions.

One of the last quotes made by Satoshi in late 2010:

Quote

No, don't "bring it on" (Wikileaks). The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the way. I make this appeal to WikiLeaks not to try to use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage.

Satoshi probably thought that Bitcoin had a fair chance of being successful in the long term but he probably did not expect it to become so successful in such a short period of time. The growth rate Bitcoin experienced in its first 3-4 years would probably have surprised him and I doubt he could have predicted that it would become so mainstream so quickly. Notice how Satoshi talks in terms of decades, not years. Would he have known that Bitcoin would reach $1,200 less than 4 years after its creation and be accepted by major retailers like Overstock and Microsoft in less than 5? I doubt it.

Fascinating post.

Thanks for this.

Unbelievable how intelligent Satoshi is/was.
I can't even begin to try & imagine the IQ a man like that posesses.
Incredible, maybe one day he'll be looked back on as one of the geniuses of the last 500 years.

Kaneki

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he may have a dream that bitcoin will become so famous but not to predict with certainty the extent to which bitcoin will succeed.

chaoman

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Quote from: Gameroid on April 14, 2015, 05:40:49 PM

Just wondering what you guys think was this just a project that he made whilst being drunk in univeristy and decided to release it and it caught on fast or did he know that it was going to get this big?

Proof or it never happened, how'd you come to that conclusion that he was drunk when he released one of the best inventions since 2000? Also what would it even matter if he was it is just you say it in a fuddy way and that is the actions of a ().. I am sure he never dreamt it would get as big as it is now and especially how big it will get in the future.

ipbo

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I think he knew it will be a successful someday of his creation that he made. A man just threw a billion of dollars in the internet.

R2D221

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Quote from: Chomsky on April 24, 2015, 07:12:12 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Of course he expect bitcoin to last very long since he created bitcoin

Where is the logic in that? I think he was well aware that what he created was an experiment and still is. Nobody, not even satoshi, could have predicted what would or will happen in the future. I'm sure he's probably both surprised and proud how far bitcoin has come.

Predictions and expectations are not the same thing. Satoshi did expect Bitcoin to be successful. You can perceive that in the whitepaper and in his messages to public groups.

Enfield

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Of course he expect bitcoin to last very long since he created bitcoin
Maybe he was surprised that bitcoin become this successful & government afraid with his creation

Read the whitepaper. He mentioned some of his expectations in there I believe (or mentioned them elsewhere for sure regarding who would be interested in bitcoin etc).

Chomsky

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Of course he expect bitcoin to last very long since he created bitcoin

Where is the logic in that? I think he was well aware that what he created was an experiment and still is. Nobody, not even satoshi, could have predicted what would or will happen in the future. I'm sure he's probably both surprised and proud how far bitcoin has come.

minerpumpkin

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I strongly believe, that he at least invested quite some time into the project. Writing software like this isn't something you do it in a day or two. I do believe though, that he didn't anticipate the success it eventually achieved. I believe he just did it as some kind of experiment he hoped would get some traction.

bigasic

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Im sure he expected it to last this long. I bet he was a bit surprised when it went from a couple bucks to over 1k in just a few months.

tescomatty

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I think satoshi was like any inventor, passionate about what he did. Did he think that Bitcoin would last this long? That's under consideration, but he certainly hoped so. I can't imagine someone inventing something and interacting with it the way he did and just giving up.

virtualx

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Quote from: Gameroid on April 14, 2015, 05:40:49 PM

Just wondering what you guys think was this just a project that he made whilst being drunk in univeristy and decided to release it and it caught on fast or did he know that it was going to get this big?

I read he expected digital currencies to play some role in the next decade. Bitcoin was an experiment at the time and there were lots of critics. Satoshi had the idea that the more people will accept it the more valuable it will be.

Q7

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I bet when he laid out the plan, he has carefully thought of on what to expect and then put everything in the best consideration. If you notice the timing when bitcoin came about, it was in 2009 just close to almost 2 years after the subprime mortgage crisis and economic recession. I bet he envisioned with the aim to create the ideal perfect money that would solve the mess from our current financial system.

smooth

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Quote from: bensam12345 on April 23, 2015, 06:05:57 AM

Quote from: smooth on April 23, 2015, 03:44:11 AM

Quote from: sana54210 on April 23, 2015, 02:45:22 AM

Satoshi was a visonary and he was sure that Bitcoin will last for long time, I can quote one of his quotes

"Aug. 5, 2010: While I don’t think Bitcoin is practical for smaller micropayments right now, it will eventually be as storage and bandwidth costs continue to fall. … Whatever size micropayments you need will eventually be practical. I think in 5 or 10 years, the bandwidth and storage will seem trivial."

He was certainly not an accurate visionary on the 5-year timescale. The storage and bandwidth requirements needed to use Bitcoin for micropayments do not seem trivial. Even in 10 years (4 from now) that seems doubtful.

Yes he was very close to being accurate and he still has 5 more years for that saying of his to come true which imo is possible with wide adoption of bitcoin, that being said, i will not be able to buy a gift card online in 2010 with 0.02BTC with all the transaction costs, but now it is totally possible as the costs of bandwidth and storage have gone down significantly and the value of bitcoin has grown from few cents to hundreds of dollars.

He said storage and bandwidth would "seem trivial." They don't. You still have reasonably intelligent people arguing that the block size should not be raised or should only be raised very slowly and carefully because it would make it too hard to run full nodes. That's not something that seems trivial at all. And that says nothing about the storage and bandwidth requirements to widely use it for microtransactions which would far exceed the current 5-7 tx/sec volume nothing (by factors of thousands at least). I will acknowledge that in 5 more years things may be different.

InvestONEr

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Satoshi saw it as a potential experiment. The idea came from playing MMORPGs.

Im not sure if he will ever be able to use his coins.

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