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Topic: Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist? - page 2. (Read 1852 times)

legendary
Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
I think we'll be fine for the immediate future. If any real world cryptographic breaks happen, the rest of the internet will find out first, and then we can consider upgrading key sizes or algorithms.

For the most part, both symmetric and asymmetric encryption are relatively safe from brute force as long as you use larger than 128 bit keys or the equivalent. Hash functions work similarly.


Also, someone please define "quantum resistant" bitcoin addresses. I believe even the legacy addresses that are unspent with no other outgoing transactions are quantum resistant already.
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 4615
We are getting closer:

The boss of Google

I assume you are talking about Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Alphabet, Inc and Google LLC?  He's not a "technology" officer, he's a business officer.  That being said...

has warned that quantum computers will be able to break encryption within as little as five years, signalling the growing threat to privacy such technological advances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/01/22/googles-sundar-pichai-quantum-computing-could-end-encryption/

What exactly does he mean when he says it will "break encryption"?

MD5 hashing has been "broken" since 1996, and yet would probably still work just fine as a Bitcoin hashing algorithm.

Without details of what will be broken, and how it will be effected, it's just an arbitrary opinion about a very generic concept.
newbie
Activity: 21
Merit: 1
Satoshi did know about it. Quantum was a thing before year 2000. Don't tell me the man who created Bitcoin does not know what quantum is.
If we look at the history of quantum computers, it started around 1980's, so definitely, Satoshi have known and think about quantum computers because it is already existing and developing even before Bitcoin was created.
Why did he not move his early mined P2PK Bitcoins to quantum resistant P2PKH addresses?

Satoshi knew that one day quantum computers will exist and will be able to move the early mined coins (P2PK) and created an unofficial prize competition to accelerate the development.

Maybe Satoshi created the greatest prize competition and the privatekeys are somehow within the blockchain.
Our guess is that he knew that the early mined coins will be moved one day. So he created a 'prize competition'. Otherwise he could move the coins to quantum resistant P2PKH addresses, but he did not and is not doing.

The only question is:
Who will win the race and get the early coins?

Quantum computing or solving the "Satoshi Prize Competition".

Nobody can stop that race.
full member
Activity: 1638
Merit: 122
He probably didn’t consider quantum computing and at the time, the length of the private key provides a lot of security.

We also should remember that quantum computing is only theoretical at this point and may not do what everyone is speculating.

he invented bitcoin a long time ago and quantum computing was only a concept that time so he didnt bother it  .

now i guess there are now few quantum computers invented and satoshi feels threatened because these kind of computers are powerful and can possibly crack and bypass all system  including the strong cryptography and blockhain  .  lets hope that im wrong and your right   . people should not build it to destroy other technology  because that will be a total disaster
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
He probably didn’t consider quantum computing and at the time, the length of the private key provides a lot of security.

We also should remember that quantum computing is only theoretical at this point and may not do what everyone is speculating.
full member
Activity: 938
Merit: 137
Satoshi Nakamoto has been creating cryptocurrency as an alternative means of payment for existing payment systems. It is simply impossible to calculate in advance the development of other technologies and their possible impact on cryptocurrency.
There is a chance of hacking cryptocurrency wallets using quantum computers, but it’s hard to say how it will be in practice.
member
Activity: 112
Merit: 72
He probably did not, but we also don’t know if and when it will happen either.  And it is possible that quantum computing could be used to protect Bitcoin as well.

We don't know if and when what will happen?

We are getting closer:

The boss of Google has warned that quantum computers will be able to break encryption within as little as five years, signalling the growing threat to privacy such technological advances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/01/22/googles-sundar-pichai-quantum-computing-could-end-encryption/
"In a five to ten year time frame, quantum computing will break encryption as we know it today."

First of all, these quantum computers will not be end-user products for a long time. They are also not designed & used as of now with malicious intent, so any breakthrough regarding cryptocurrencies such as quantum computing being able to "decrypt" blockchains will most likely only add more strength to it and turn quantum computing into a real world problem, which would turn into us all coming together to add, if possible, a quantum-resistant layer to the existing Bitcoin blockchain.

Second of all, quantum computing is a threat to a lot of things before Bitcoin. If quantum computing becomes available to anyone, it would open the possibilities of extreme cyber-attacks the world has never seen before. We aren't ready for quantum computing, the internet itself isn't at all. Before cryptocurrencies, we must protect everything else. The governments themselves are at risk, so is the internet as we know it.

Therefore, we must first develop ways to protect everything we know against quantum computers. They will be in our homes soon enough (although probably a decade or two, that still is very close), so we must basically re-invent security in order to apply it not against very powerful PCs and servers but against this breakthrough technology called Quantum Computing.

Trust me, there are computers more powerful even than quantum but nobody says a thing yet. In research and laboratories there is always something new, something better. That doesn't mean it's a published information. When they're ready, they will publish it. Research is decades ahead of end-user products.

Satoshi did know about it. Quantum was a thing before year 2000. Don't tell me the man who created Bitcoin does not know what quantum is. But we barely have solutions yet against it, why are some people expecting he should've created protection against it in BTC's blockchain? And there's not only this but also the fact that Bitcoin is now helped by tens/hundreds of thousands of developers. Maybe even millions, if we consider everyone involved in the total number of people working on cryptocurrency projects.

It's one mind vs the world. Even as a genius as he probably is, there's always going to be contradiction & improvement when you put a brain next to 8 billion of them.
newbie
Activity: 10
Merit: 0
It's just not possible to predict what's gonna happen in 7-10 years, especially when the tech itself isn't even finalized

Yes, not predictable. It could even happen tomorrow.

'Whoever achieves it first - and it could be within as little as three years according to Cheng - don't expect to learn about it in the news.'

Move your coins from old addresses to make them quantum secure.
'Shalecoins', coins with no owner ' https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-as-shalecoin-5134441 will be 'fracked'..


Quantum computers will surprise the Bitcoin community. The 'shalecoins' will be moved and will become active.
jr. member
Activity: 37
Merit: 2
It's just not possible to predict what's gonna happen in 7-10 years, especially when the tech itself isn't even finalized
newbie
Activity: 10
Merit: 0
We are getting closer:

The boss of Google has warned that quantum computers will be able to break encryption within as little as five years, signalling the growing threat to privacy such technological advances.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/01/22/googles-sundar-pichai-quantum-computing-could-end-encryption/
"In a five to ten year time frame, quantum computing will break encryption as we know it today."

@ developers: When will we implement quantum computer resistant addresses?
@ satoshi: You filled the blockchain with your early mined coins and the quantum transformation will be very interesting. Who will get the most coins?

newbie
Activity: 10
Merit: 0
How the Crypto World Is Preparing for Quantum Computing, Explained
https://cointelegraph.com/explained/how-the-crypto-world-is-preparing-for-quantum-computing-explained

"While present-day quantum computers cannot break blockchains and their underlying cryptography, larger ones on the horizon are a threat, indeed, and need to be prepared for."

@ developers: When will we implement quantum computer resistant addresses?
@ satoshi: You filled the blockchain with your early mined coins and the quantum transformation will be very interesting. Who will get the most coins?
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
He probably did not, but we also don’t know if and when it will happen either.  And it is possible that quantum computing could be used to protect Bitcoin as well.
sr. member
Activity: 389
Merit: 250
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
I think Bitcoin developers can be kinda ready for somebody trying to use a quantum computer in the future to mine bitcoins and they're going to provide some security from such calculations. And besides, a quantum computer's technology is extremely expensive and hard to introduce, so we wouldn't be seriously worried about that in the coming years. To be fair, I believe it will be a threat only in like 20 years or so.
sr. member
Activity: 1050
Merit: 269
There's a lot of time to update Bitcoin to an even stronger encryption.

We will have a quantum resistant upgrade. People will transfer their coins to quantum resistant addresses, but a lot of coins (million+) won't be moved to these secure addresses as they are "lost" coins and nobody can move them.
Which fork will you use post quantum?
a) the fork with all Bitcoins where quantum computer owners will get the "lost" coins and will be the new owners.
b) the fork where "lost" coins are burnt and can't have new owners.

It seems the first choice (a) is inevitable.  Once fork started, those addresses that did not follow instructions or left untouched will be vulnerable to being decoded by quantum computers.  Unless the developers got the first hand on those coins, there is no other option but that first one (a).
member
Activity: 476
Merit: 88
Online Cryptocurrency Exchange
But as I understand it, most users worry about their earnings in the near future in order to earn more money using cryptocurrency volatility, and they are not interested in security in the future.

In general, many people do not think in a perspective longer than 5 years. But luckily there are notable exemptions which think forward and therefore we already have some teams of developers trying to address this future threat.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1561
CLEAN non GPL infringing code made in Rust lang
Quantum computers are a long ways away from becoming general purpose computers. As of right now, quantum computers are highly limited to only being able to perform specific kinds of calculations and tasks. There is no threat stemming from quantum computers at the moment and there won't be for quite some time now.
   I would worry if quantum computers became commercially available like smartphones, then there would probably be room for panic to ensue. I believe that people have been watching way too many science fiction movies.  Grin

Nobody expects them to. Quantum computing is additional to general computing, what people probably mean is that your general computer will be also quantum capable, i think something like a quantum co-processor will appear at some point. At this point, you WILL see quantum crypto algorithms implemented, which solves the problem entirely.

So its the opposite. Once "everyone" has it, it is solved. The problem is the transition, when only a few can own one. Your worry is from today, until "quantum computers became commercially available like smartphones" when you can easily use quantum crypto algorithms.

This is also the reason the mitigations should not be delayed too long, but always keep in mind of that the actual solution is.
newbie
Activity: 48
Merit: 0
Quantum computing boost for IBM but Bitcoin stays safe https://decrypt.co/16211/quantum-computing-boost-for-ibm-but-bitcoin-stays-safe
IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer but Bitcoin's encryption is still far from being broken.
"IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer. At yesterday's CES 2020 conference, the company announced it had successfully achieved a Quantum Volume of 32 using its 28-qubit quantum computer known as Raleigh."
"As a network built entirely around cryptographically secured transactions, it stands to reason that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could eventually crack the encryption used to generate Bitcoin private keys. However, according to a June 2017 paper by Martin Roetteler and several co-authors, such as a machine would need to command approximately 2,500 qubits of processing power to break the 256-bit encryption used by Bitcoin."
Interesting. I know 2500 is far from current 28 qubit but it still scares me a little. Not long ago I've read about 11-qubit quantum computer. How long do you think it will take to develop 2500 qubit computer? I hope Moore's law doesn't apply here.

Will Quantum Volume Be The Next Moore’s Law? https://www.designnews.com/design-hardware-software/will-quantum-volume-be-next-moore-s-law/62963653562205
Doubling performance every year is now the benchmark for quantum computers as designers look to EDA vendors for new automation tools.
IBM’s Rasit Onur Topaloglu: "I am not going to project when we will reach 200 qubits, but we already have an 80 qubits architecture."

According to the chart: 2500 qubits reached by year 2025

We have to begin with the implementation of quantum resistant Bitcoin addresses soon.
newbie
Activity: 18
Merit: 0
There's a lot of time to update Bitcoin to an even stronger encryption.

We will have a quantum resistant upgrade. People will transfer their coins to quantum resistant addresses, but a lot of coins (million+) won't be moved to these secure addresses as they are "lost" coins and nobody can move them.
Which fork will you use post quantum?
a) the fork with all Bitcoins where quantum computer owners will get the "lost" coins and will be the new owners.
b) the fork where "lost" coins are burnt and can't have new owners.
legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 1335
Defend Bitcoin and its PoW: bitcoincleanup.com
Quantum computing boost for IBM but Bitcoin stays safe https://decrypt.co/16211/quantum-computing-boost-for-ibm-but-bitcoin-stays-safe
IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer but Bitcoin's encryption is still far from being broken.
"IBM has doubled the power of its quantum computer. At yesterday's CES 2020 conference, the company announced it had successfully achieved a Quantum Volume of 32 using its 28-qubit quantum computer known as Raleigh."
"As a network built entirely around cryptographically secured transactions, it stands to reason that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could eventually crack the encryption used to generate Bitcoin private keys. However, according to a June 2017 paper by Martin Roetteler and several co-authors, such as a machine would need to command approximately 2,500 qubits of processing power to break the 256-bit encryption used by Bitcoin."

There's a lot of time to update Bitcoin to an even stronger encryption.

I expect that by the time some company finally reaches 2,5k people in China will already be mining Bitcoin on quantum miners and the network security and encryption will double. We had vital updates to Bitcoin in the past and we can have them in the coming years.
full member
Activity: 1093
Merit: 103
Of course. As well as he thought about cold fusion nuclear reactors.
The point is that 10 years ago quantum had the same status as cold fusion.

Only in the last 5 years, this came true. And the technology is still very problematic in use, just as the first computers like eniac.

Still, just like in military - you protect yourself from current threats, not ones which may or may not exist in the next 20 years or so (considering that in computers, 20 years is enormous amount of time, much bigger than in military itself)
In fact, when a military threat or military competition arises between countries, each country acts at its discretion in order to contrast one weapon with a completely different one.  The same applies to the computer, because if you are already talking about a quantum computer today, especially considering the beginning of its development several decades ago, today you need to work on ensuring security for cryptocurrency, since everyone should understand the capabilities of a quantum computer and how much  helpless may be Bitcoin in front of this machine. But as I understand it, most users worry about their earnings in the near future in order to earn more money using cryptocurrency volatility, and they are not interested in security in the future.
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