Topic: Diff thread Apr 14 to Apr 28? picks are now closed.... prize = 0.2 btc - page 8. (Read 6318 times)

So Day 2 was -4.17% with 138 blocks however this Morning is off to a Brisk start with a lot of short Blocks which has pulled the Period to date Run Rate, 9 Hours in, up to +2.69%

To early to judge if this is increased hash or just variance? We will see.... 


Rich

Look at price it is actually looking good currently at 430 per coin.   This is getting closer and closer to my short term goal of 450, I really want to see it just mentally but it's slow moving.

High was 433 but it did fall some - http://www.coindesk.com/price/

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   407542
Total BTC   15.439M
 
Difficulty   178678307672
Estimated   180913459307 in 1706 blks
 
Network total   1233949.272 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.79 / 622 s


These numbers are really good so far.   180913459307/178678307672 -1 =   +0.030%

Back from a very wet Vegas and this Morning we had snow.... First full Day of the new Period we had -2.08% with 141 Blocks and the period to date run rate is at +0.67% so everything fairly quiet at the moment. 

Rich

I could be wrong but I still think they are pumping out S7's with new design to get some last profits before having.  Also they can build and mine with them and sell later date still.... so it's win win for them.  And I could be wrong and it's next gen.

I just think once we see next gen it will be double digits on difficulty changes.  But I could be all wet on that guess.  Another 5+ would not surprise me at all.

We are now well past 250 blocks past the difficulty change, and the projected increase hasn't budged vary much. That doesn't sound good if the current projection is based on the most recent 500 blocks. See:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    178,678,307,672
Estimated Next Difficulty:    190,800,615,008 (+6.78%)
Adjust time:    After 1741 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,329,707,779 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.1 minutes
   
Updated:    0:20 (5.8 minutes ago)

Maybe I just don't get this and it really isn't going to be another 5-7% increase.

yeah  a s-7 at 8 cents earns 84 a month

the ½ ing will come and shit is going to have to change.

same s-7 will be down to 60-70 a month right before the ½

and then at 0 to 4 dollars a month

and this is 8 cent power.

And it's almost sad explaining this happening to people.  I had a family member asking about bitcoin and in part mining.   In past I have been able to say very good things about mining (I don't see this member often).

But this time when explaining current state of mining it was sad.  He asks about investment and in past I would have had a way for him to possibly do it.  But my explanation now is all about electricity costs and it's moving to mega mines.  It almost hurt me as I was explaining it and realizing how much less positive it was compared to say year ago or before even.

no question the game is all about power cost.

Yeah I have 2 deals giving me very low cost power but I can not scale it past  10 kwatts. 2 or 3 cents average

then my power jumps.  I may be able to run something at 8 cents  3-5 more kwatts .

 then all other power is 12 to 15 cents  and that means only eth coin works

I thought the same at first but I have read quite a few stories of people going to 220/240 on a line.   I know I added it in my mining area specifically for S7's.   I have some 120 lines ran to as I was running some previous gen miner and A6's.    (I had a lot of the parts for 120 including is why it got ran first).   But after trying 240 with PDU I doubt I run anything besides it if I need more in future.

For what it's worth I think home mining continues to go smaller.  Hobby mining of a little bigger some went to like me.  But its really the mega farms that control the game now days.

bitcoinwisdom's future predication carries the last 500 blocks  so it is using numbers from the last jump. 

this is a closer number

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   407413
Total BTC   15.435M
 
Difficulty   178678307672
Estimated   179261348159 in 1835 blks uses this jump only
 
Network total   1267293.133 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.94 / 606 s



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,678,307,672
Estimated Next Difficulty:   190,701,982,087 (+6.73%)  uses last jumps blocks  and this jumps blocks  so it is way high right now
Adjust time:   After 1835 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,310,816,062 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.0 minutes
6 blocks: 58.0 minutes
Updated:   10:15 (1.4 minutes ago)


so 'real' time we are under 1%

DAmn I was close.  So the new miners are already getting up and running ?  Or is this just bitmain s7's still selling strong ?  IMO 7% is A LOT of hashrate.  its crazy.

I almost guessed 7.0 there that last round, I think that would have meant I would have won?  Well weird that my bad feeling was pretty close, guess I gotta pay attention to my feelings more. 

last batch of s7 is not so much of a home miner, some say s7 itself it'a not....

also summer it's comming and heat becomes a minus!

atm:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   191,920,048,332 (+7.41%)
Adjust time:   After 1887 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):   1,315,156,282 GH/s

The hard part is electricity price as it is getting more and more important.  We know there are mega mines in China at cheap rates (people debate on price but it has to be cheap).  If they upgrade to next gen on a few cent electricity and BTC does not rise in price and difficulty continues to rise, I think that will be nail in coffin for a lot of home miners.

Hard to speculate what will happen.  But next gen will be interesting to watch with big mines.  We could have interesting times before having.

As long as they sell gear to hobby miners there will be hobby miners.

Just less of us.

Now I'd say they could kill us off if they only build 10000 watt miners.

I can provide 30 amp 240 volt circuits. Two in my house and three in the solar array.

That can do 5 kwatts  24/7/365. Most home miners can't do that. So they will be dead soon.  Maybe with in a year.  As many miners can do an Avalon 6 in house or an office.

If you have free power and run an avalon6  you can do it for a long time.

If you have free power and the gear is 6 or 7 kwatt you are dead. That is when we die as home miners.

A hard hit but not a knock out.  I think once next gen chips are in production and hitting specs... we are in for double digits and I don't know how long.  And that scares me.

I think S7's they are making last bit of profits they can before having.  But once we see next gen.... I will admit I'm afraid of it for home/hobby miners.

That's a hard hit but let's see if we can stick in this diff range until the halving  

So last jump of 7.09% got us a rollover  prize is 0.20 btc

Picks are closed at the moment and all rules remain same.

last thread is here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/diff-thread-apr-1-to-apr-15-picks-are-closed-prize-01-btc-1421127



Difficulty History

Date                              Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s   = Rollover


Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s


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