Topic: Diff thread aug 23rd to sept 5th. Picks are closed. (Read 6609 times)

So we have a carry over and we cracked 400 ph!

New thread link is here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12325953

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s



Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s

© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com



Locking this up!

Bitcoinwisdom is famous for overshoot estimates at the start of each period. This will settle down with more incoming blocks.

Looks like its settled ended just under 5% this round the predicted variance for the next round is surprisingly high though.


Bitcoin Difficulty:   56,957,648,455
Estimated Next Difficulty:   61,242,200,720 (+7.52%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):   417,292,940 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:   3:45 (1.1 minutes ago)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s

For sure we will hit that diff, then the halving and this will be fun just wait and see  

So about 5% huh? I really hope we don't keep that pace, or do wish that the BTC price keep up.

Then again i should knock on wood, its not like its double digit stuff...

*Knock on wood*

It does look like their will be a carry over it's been a while since that happened and predictions will need to move higher the next time around.
Not too many blocks left now just six hours to go this round.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   57,031,826,668 (+5.11%)
Adjust time:   After 39 Blocks, About 6.0 hours

My sincere apologies, I made the following prediction without knocking on wood, without spitting over my left shoulder, without sacrificing a goat, etc. Messed it up thoroughly.

I am beginning to think you are the rainman of difficulty .  Thank you for all the time you spend in these threads.  I truly enjoy watching it through the week.

Hopefully next period is less.  Guess we will see.

8 - 22 - 2015    162     +18
8-  23 - 2015    138     -   6         so + 12 blocks    for sat and sun  
8-  24 - 2015    156     + 12         + 24 blocks for  3 days  
8-  25 - 2015    133     -  11          + 13 blocks for 4 days.
8-  26 - 2015    160     + 16          +29  
8-  27 - 2015    135      - 9            +20
8-  28 - 2015    156     +12           +32
8-  29 - 2015    163     +19           +51
8-  30 - 2015    151     +7             +58
8-  31 - 2015    157     +13           +71
9-    1 - 2015    154     +10           +81
9-    2 - 2015    154     +10           +91
9-    3 - 2015    149      + 5           +96

we have made 1972 blocks  'norm' = 1876

I get close to +5.12%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.20%)  very close to my current number


looks like 5+ is in the cards.  Looks really hard to drop to 4.50%  so I think we are getting the carry over

44 blocks to go! So  here is to a 1 hour block or 2 or 3 or so.

next to impossible  long sustained prices needed for it to go above 100

Not unless BTC hits $500+ I think.

100 billion diff, here we come!

But seriously, will we hit 100G before the halving next year?  It's going to be fun to watch what happens as that draws nearer.

As do I, those increases were scary buggers for mining as your gear was out dated in a few months at times at least it was off-set by prices though if they were going up so you could estimate ROI on a mining calculator.
That said it looks like some new hash is coming on and miners will be upgrading their units to S7's in a month or so perhaps their is also some unit testing before shipping as this blip needs to be accounted for somewhere.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   57,136,286,233 (+5.31%)
Adjust time:   After 69 Blocks, About 10.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   405,625,870 GH/s

asic builders have huge power in what the total ph is to be.

If I put bit fury , bitmaintech , KNC, avalon,  sfards,  and the other chinese company made the dragons all in one room and forced them to build gear they could 2x the network by jan 1.  easy no questions asked.

since they have all decide to mine they are limiting hash power to others and thus slowing btc growth in general.

SO after doing this since last NOV.  maybe they will flip the switch and put gear out for a while.

I don't think anyone did.  I am afraid of another one next week to.   I don't know what will happen.

But from picks this week I believe highest was: +4.26% to +4.50% .  So we all guessed lower, didnt see this.  Was eye opening though.

I definitely didn't expect this period to go up the entire time!

"Next difficulty retarget occurs at block 372959.0 (eta 20.2 hrs): 59154798343.6 / +9.0% [est.]"

Is this the new norm?

I can recall those day's very well, but does not mean I want go back to it.   I think at this point 20-30 are not going to happen as total hashrate has raised so much.

I hope we don't get to 7.   But I am really starting to think we have someone turning on some gear 6+ is a lot of hash.

Recalls the days of 20-30% increases being the norm but after all this time were starting to see something adorable aww look at it trying to get to 7% .

Bitcoin Difficulty:   54,256,630,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:   57,647,558,690 (+6.25%)
Adjust time:   After 143 Blocks, About 22.1 hours

8 - 22 - 2015    162     +18
8-  23 - 2015    138     -   6         so + 12 blocks    for sat and sun  
8-  24 - 2015    156     + 12         + 24 blocks for  3 days  
8-  25 - 2015    133     -  11          + 13 blocks for 4 days.
8-  26 - 2015    160     + 16          +29  
8-  27 - 2015    135      - 9            +20
8-  28 - 2015    156     +12           +32
8-  29 - 2015    163     +19           +51
8-  30 - 2015    151     +7             +58
8-  31 - 2015    157     +13           +71
9-    1 - 2015    154     +10           +81
9-    2 - 2015    154     +10           +91

we have made 1815  blocks  'norm' = 1724

I get close to +5.22%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.81%)  close to my current number


looks like 5+ is in the cards.  Looks really hard to drop to 4.50%  so I think we are getting the carry over