Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc - page 11.

RichBC

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Quote from: Mikestang on February 22, 2016, 01:15:09 PM

Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess. Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway. I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done. There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

Well my theory is that there was a big push to get stuff mining before the Holiday and now with the BW 14nm Miner being deployed and the Bifury announcements people will be holding back on further 28nm purchases, putting us into a slight lull waiting for full availability of new miners?

Rich

Mikestang

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Whatever is going on it sure is weird, I wish there was a way to definitively know instead of having to guess. Price is strong right now, over $437 as I type, and difficulty is leveling off for this period anyway. I would really like to see it stay level for the next few months, I'm hoping the big hardware push is done. There's a point where there won't be enough time left to the halving for even the $0.01 kw-h power people can't ROI new gear, so it should settle down at some point.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: skuser on February 22, 2016, 05:39:54 AM

This so confusing lately that the only thing I can state almost for sure there will be another prize rollover in this thread

and because it is so nutty you will be wrong. Grin

skuser

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This so confusing lately that the only thing I can state almost for sure there will be another prize rollover in this thread

RichBC

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As Phil has said a really slow Day -11.11% and only 128 blocks, relative to the last few periods this is Pedestrian, and looking at Today it seems to be continuing with the Run rate taking another little step down to -6.19%.

So the big question is will this continue throughout the Period? Was there a big push to get everything mining before the Holiday that cleared the pipeline for the moment and we are now in a short lull before everyone's 14/16nm Miners are ready?

Rich

adaseb

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Wow! Hashrate really sure took a dive, wondering if that Chinese mining farm stealing electricity was true.

alh

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Quote from: mwizard on February 21, 2016, 08:51:03 PM

Just an observation. It may only be bad luck/variance but Bitfury has solved a lot less blocks in the last few days.

Has their hash rate dropped?

While I might be wrong, I don't think there is a direct way that somebody, outside of Bitfury, can measure their hash rate. The global hashrate, and any outside estimate of their hashrate, is based solely on how quickly they solve blocks. I think the only thing you can conclude from a reduced block solve rate for Bitfury, is that they have a smaller fraction of the estimated network hashrate.

So it's kind of a circular answer. So many things are based solely on block solve rate.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

@mwizard today was really slow day.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456023040236

399510 (Main Chain)   2016-02-21 23:52:41

399383 (Main Chain)   2016-02-21 00:00:14

that is a 128 block day

the 19th of feb was 138 blocks
the 20th of feb was 151 blocks
the 21st of feb was 128 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   170,040,810,739 (+4.01%)
Adjust time:   After 1662 Blocks, About 12.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,129,745,950 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   21:55 (1.1 minutes ago)

mwizard

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Just an observation. It may only be bad luck/variance but Bitfury has solved a lot less blocks in the last few days.

Has their hash rate dropped?

notlist3d

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Quote from: RichBC on February 21, 2016, 02:13:20 AM

Yesterday finished with +4.17% 150 Blocks however Today there have had some slow Blocks and the run rate for the period is at -3% which is nice

Thanks to the Roundtable Consensus we are nicely over £300 now and have been touching $450, let's hope this holds and we can move steadily up.

Rich

And we took a drop to around 433 right now.. so almost even with 24 hours ago. No long term gain sadly. I am suprised at low difficulty numbers I don't know what to think of that.

I was pretty convinced someone was just pumping out the gear and would keep doing it. I would love to be wrong thought on it.

RichBC

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Yesterday finished with +4.17% 150 Blocks however Today there have had some slow Blocks and the run rate for the period is at -3% which is nice

Thanks to the Roundtable Consensus we are nicely over £300 now and have been touching $450, let's hope this holds and we can move steadily up.

Rich

Kexkey

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Smile while thinking.

Quote from: notlist3d on February 20, 2016, 01:45:09 PM

Quote from: Kexkey on February 20, 2016, 10:04:24 AM

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations. That could explain the drop.

Can you provide link? I would be interesting to see it. Would take more then twitter for me to believe it though.

Good news is price has shot up were around 438... approaching 440. Considering we were around 418 around 24 hours ago that is a decent jump... so I'm starting to get happier on BTC price.

Hum, I'll try to find it. I am following a lot of people, won't be easy to find. It was related to the Bitcoin Roundtable in Hong Kong, IIRC it was a screenshot of a discussion in WeChat.

But you're right, there's a lot of junk on Twitter. But not as much as on Reddit.

EDIT: Fixed a typo.

notlist3d

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Quote from: Kexkey on February 20, 2016, 10:04:24 AM

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations. That could explain the drop.

Can you provide link? I would be interesting to see it. Would take more then twitter for me to believe it though.

Good news is price has shot up were around 438... approaching 440. Considering we were around 418 around 24 hours ago that is a decent jump... so I'm starting to get happier on BTC price.

indiemax

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[/quote]

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations. That could explain the drop.

[/quote]

Haha, the Chinese !

Well with the price going up,hope you guys can get your ROI Grin

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Kexkey on February 20, 2016, 10:04:24 AM

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations. That could explain the drop.

Lets all say a quick prayer to what ever deity you believe in that this is true. And that Chinese government cracks down on the other farms.

This news if true is wonderful.

Kexkey

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Smile while thinking.

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 20, 2016, 09:34:24 AM

Quote from: RichBC on February 20, 2016, 07:09:52 AM

Quote from: VirosaGITS on February 20, 2016, 04:08:01 AM

Quote from: RichBC on February 20, 2016, 02:52:47 AM

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%

I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.

Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added.

Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen.

Rich

They did not sell 10 percent of the network in batch ten.

We were at 23 percent and dropped to 13 percent. The missing ten percent would be 108 ph

This is about 22000 s-7s! That did not happen.

It is a mix of batch ten and an unknown

Also like Rich says this makes for an inaccurate early number for diff.

Based on the 23 percent I think we may add 60 to 80 ph. With maybe 40 ph going missing.

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations. That could explain the drop.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: RichBC on February 20, 2016, 07:09:52 AM

Quote from: VirosaGITS on February 20, 2016, 04:08:01 AM

Quote from: RichBC on February 20, 2016, 02:52:47 AM

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%

I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.

Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added.

Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen.

Rich

They did not sell 10 percent of the network in batch ten.

We were at 23 percent and dropped to 13 percent. The missing ten percent would be 108 ph

This is about 22000 s-7s! That did not happen.

It is a mix of batch ten and an unknown

Also like Rich says this makes for an inaccurate early number for diff.

Based on the 23 percent I think we may add 60 to 80 ph. With maybe 40 ph going missing.

valkir

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13.44% was better than 20% Tongue

Lets hope the next diff will be more around 5 to 10% Grin

RichBC

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Quote from: VirosaGITS on February 20, 2016, 04:08:01 AM

Quote from: RichBC on February 20, 2016, 02:52:47 AM

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%

I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.

Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added.

Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen.

Rich

notlist3d

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Quote from: VirosaGITS on February 20, 2016, 04:08:01 AM

Quote from: RichBC on February 20, 2016, 02:52:47 AM

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%

I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.

Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

From looking at group buys it was big and small orders to. PCFLI finally got his I think that it's been around a month waiting on for those who bought. And small customers are getthing batch 10 shipped.

I think it's temporary that they are just moving places, and will be up and running pretty soon. But bitwsidom has went down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    176,351,943,784 (+7.87%)
Adjust time:    After 1900 Blocks, About 13.8 days

Topic: Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc - page 11. (Read 8942 times)