Topic: Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc - page 4. (Read 8912 times)

Well another quiet Day with -7.64% and 133 Blocks. Run rate has been tracking neatly between -4% & -5% and if we continue as we are then that's probably where we will end up. However usually as soon as I say something like that things change.  

Rich

I want back in the mining and seeing this:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    157,822,992,308 (-3.47%)
Adjust time:    After 548 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):    1,132,845,782 GH/s
makes me crave it!

final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi


we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  "   "     "   "
137   - 7      -58  "   "     "  "
134   -10     -68  with  556 blocks left

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,797,573,592 (-3.48%)
Adjust time:   After 556 Blocks, About 4.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,123,210,141 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   


I have us in 'real time'  -5% 

 and yeah  we still can flick a switch and add 100 ph maybe , but we are reaching the point of a certain negative adjustment.

also price was 418 on feb 19  price is 437 on feb 29

I don't see them producing a single one.  Was a publicity thing just like the light bulb.  If a big buyer wanted one.... they would make it.

But big buyers want a normal data center I think.  And a lot already have that so just want new miner to put in.   So ... pr move not production in my eyes.

except they don't exist.  not in 10ph size.

1 mega watt of power is used.  that is about 4 million btus of heat per container.

a container is 40 by 10 feet  I know it has liquid cooling for the chips.


but the heat even when pulled from the chips needs to be moved out of the container.  it needs jet engine fans to move the heat.  these fans do exist. but I think they just do not build them out to 10 ph.

I would be real surprised in BitFury pre-builds any of the "mining containers". Yes they most certainly could, but it's a pretty expensive thing to have "on the shelf" waiting for a buyer. If they actually have a buyer, then it will be coming back after it arrives wherever and gets plugged in......

I think the "short term cheap power" or "power cheat" story is more plausible.

Every day is one step closer to difficulty decrease!!!

Kinda, but those are big containers, with tons of chips etc. I think the insides are tons of racks and everything is submerged. Must be a pain to replace defective hardware lol. Each container is like one small datacenter.

It is crazy to think that the bitcoin network has the hashrate equivalent ~100 of those containers.

It could easily be 10 of those containers that got burn-in testing, that would explain the hash in a pretty simple and clean manner.  But the weird conspiracy theories are more fun to day dream about... 

These?
http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter

Because i don't really think there would be that many S5's going offline in the first place. And if they were in China, they would still be really profitable to run.

well there was some twitter buzz that a Chinese farm was caught stealing power.

I never saw it only read about it

Even if it was an s-5 farm that was converting to s-7's  and it scored a 1 cent 3 week contract around Chinese holiday  Jan 22 to Feb 14

It would need to be

          1 x 1.15 =        1.15 th
        10 x 1.15 =      11.5 th
      100 x 1.15 =     115th
    1000 x 1.15 =     1150th or    1.15 ph
  10000 x 1.15 =   11500th or  11.50 ph
100000 x 1.15 = 115000th or 115.00 ph

so 100,000 s-5's would be an amazing farm.

 I do not think that is true I think  the missing 100ph is something else.

I can scale 100000 s-5s' in my minds eye if they were all in 1 long row. they would be about 8 inches wide for each one  or 66000 feet or 13 miles

so say the ware house had two sets of shelves with 3 rows of s-5s  each  it would be 11,000 feet or 2 miles . so my thoughts are whatever was powered off was not s-5s in 1 spot.

Maybe 20 warehouses of s-5's scattered about china

Yup, and I'm with you hoping that it never comes back, but it is/was out there so...

It's crazy to think just how much space 100PH worth of gear would take up and the type of utility infrastructure that has to exist to support it.  For it to be here one minute and gone the next, there is for sure a big story there that we're not getting any of.

it has not come back yet.-------- good


https://blockchain.info/blocks

400591 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 21:23:21


400468 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 00:01:18   


124 blocks in the time it takes for 128 blocks so - on the day.

 we have 593 blocks left.  1 more 140 block day after today would be nice.

The thing is, missing or not, that equipment physically exists out there still (unless it burned down or was all "old" gear that got recycled), so it could come back at any time and bump diff again.  It's a fun mystery to contemplate, I only wish we could get a definitive answer on what it is.

Yes Today's run rate is the highest we have seen this Period, so looks like someone has switched something on. Period so far still at a nice low -4% but Today's rate at the moment +10%, but I think some of that is variance so will probably drop a bit during the Day.

Rich

I totally forgot about that game. I was watching the negative difficulty in Bitcoinwisdom. This is the first difficulty decrease since 28 June 2015. I kinda expected because hashrate went up too much in last changes.

final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi

we have about  4 hours
we have a lot of choice left.
lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  with 844 blocks to go
137   - 7      -58 with  697 blocks to go

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,271,480,933 (-3.80%)
Adjust time:   After 697 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,155,432,721 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   22:35 (2.1 minutes ago)

we are down 58 blocks   with 697 to go. 

 4 days of 175 may happen like it did

Feb 2   177
Feb 3   177
Feb 4   172
Feb 5   184    and we would be crying


so far  22 blocks in the time it takes for 22 blocks

https://blockchain.info/blocks

400489 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 03:38:48
400468 (Main Chain)   2016-02-29 00:01:18

I wasnt exactly aware they had waste problem but now that i think about it, it make sense. But i think the big problem with China is the air pollution. At this rate many of them will die of air poisoning or they will have to all work around with air filters.

This won't help.

China is building the largest waste-to-energy plant in the world - It will turn a third of Shenzhen's trash into energy every single day.  http://www.sciencealert.com/china-is-building-the-largest-waste-to-energy-plant-in-the-world

I speculate China is only going to be getting better and better in future if they do things like this.  Largest trash to energy... talk about a cool idea.