Topic: Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc - page 2. (Read 8907 times)

Another quiet day yesterday with -6.25% 135 Blocks but again Today has got off to a brisk start with the Days run rate at the moment of +27%. It is dropping back but if we were to carry on at this sort of rate it could see us ending at -2.5%. However if the rate drops back to zero then we would end up at -3.5%. So just goes to show that even at this late stage how difficult this prediction is... Either way we will be finished before the end of the Day.

Rich

Well, it is nice relative to big double digit positive jumps, but the overall diff is still way ugly.  I wish it would at least go under 150G; I would feel better knowing it was closer to 100G than 200G.

https://blockchain.info/blocks


401059 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 04:06:40

401034 (Main Chain)   2016-03-04 00:06:53

26 blocks in       the time it takes 25 blocks


yesterday numbers

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456978445826

401033 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 23:41:10
400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27

135 blocks  -9    we are negative   -71 blocks



-138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  
137   - 7     -58
134  -10     -68
137   -7      -75
157   +13     -62    this is the big spike   but the next day is very low
135   - 9        -71      a  very low pace for today



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   157,890,213,982  (-3.43%)   this is nice
Adjust time:   After 125 Blocks, About 21.2 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,146,356,810 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:20 (45.0 seconds ago)



so do we stay under 0  yes  we would need to make those 125 blocks left in 9 hours  which is not going to happen.

I think -2  to -4



final picks

-5.8 = edonkey
-4.1 = blindminer
-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d
+1.0 = tlhILwI
+1.1 = fr4nkthetank
+1.2 = vapourminer
+1.3 = VRobb
+1.4 = leowonderful        corrected from +1.43
+1.5 = Amph
+1.9 = tss
+2.0 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.5 = pusttiu
+3.2 = Biodom
+3.5 = Last of the V8s
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.6 = kipper01
+7.1 = psi


11 or so are in the zone

I really want a negative just to see one again.  I still don't know what is going on to slow down so much.  I think this is the calm before another storm.

And I could be wrong and hope I am.  But I think hashing jumps will be back especially once next gen hit's spec and starts shipping big.

https://blockchain.info/blocks


401027 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 22:51:10
400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27

129 blocks   in 23 hours and 10 minutes   we should be   at 139


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,379,381,077 (-3.13%)
Adjust time:   After 156 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):   1,134,494,487 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours


since there are 156 blocks left  we would need to do them in about 12 hours to go to a positive.

WTF really is a good question.   Price is 416 so dropped... but I think don't think that causes stop from big jumps in difficulty to negative.   I can think of a few ideas.... but none of them make sense.

People turning off gear... I don't see it as I think almost all will have info-structure they will put in new gear when old gear is done.  There is still a lot of A1's I suspect plugged in at very cheap electricity, some day they will come off but is it happening now? I don't know.

Big data centers buying gear to get last roi before having? Again I'm not sure... I can see it happening.  A lot of these I would think are in talks with Bitfury, and that scares me.  I keep thinking one day we will see news of bitfury shipping gear..... and that I think will make difficulty jump a good amount.  Again I don't know.

I really do want to know what is going on though.  Just not enough facts right now to prove anything.

This period is looking much more promising than the last several adjustments.  I have getting afraid that 200G diff was right around the corner.  Hopefully diff will stay level/slightly negative for the next couple periods.  Although if we see new chip tech go public before the halving, watch out...

I have no idea WTF  but it is very nice to see.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

400998 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 18:59:39
400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27

100 blocks on the button   19 hours should be 114!

sweet.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,194,280,601 (-3.24%)---------  this is too high
Adjust time:   After 186 Blocks, About 1.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,135,623,015 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours

If you win it's kinda a win for all miners.  To get a negative in that teritory would be great.  I would love to see it after how difficulty has been lately.

I do wonder what's causing it though.  I wish we knew this part.  What caused us to not surge this  period and go into negative... and also how long term is this going to happen.

I really hope I win. Not because of the prize, and not because our cats love fishy treats.

I want to win because my pick is the largest negative value.

Of course I'd be just as happy if I lose because the difficulty goes down even more than our cats' guess.

We are way down today.

400967 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 13:54:30

400899 (Main Chain)   2016-03-03 00:10:27


69 blocks in 14 hours and 10 minutes

85 is 'normal'  so  with this cold streak


I  now think this is the area of possible winners:

-5.8 = edonkey      these two now could win
-4.1 = blindminer     "      "     "      "        "

-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct


I cut off a lot on this side as we are going lower and lower.





lastly we are a solid negative.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

138    -3     partial day  -6 so I used -3
152   +8     +5  running total
134   -10    -5     "   "     "  "
125   -19    -24   "  "      "  "
134   -10    -34   "  "      "  "
117   -27    -61   "  "      "  "
158  +14    -47   "  "      "  "
141  -  3     -50   "  "      "  "
143    -12    -51  
137   - 7     -58
134  -10     -68
137   -7      -75
157   -13     -62    this is the big spike   but the next day is very low


130?       a  very low pace for today

We continue to settle back into the -4% to -5% band. Run rate for the Period so far now at -4.2% and run rate for the Day continuing to hold very low at -16%. I am begining to wonder if anything has really happened this Period as I think we came out of last Period with a bit of an overcorrection of a few % and have just carried that flat through the period?

Rich

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   158,368,224,832 (-3.13%)
Adjust time:   After 231 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,119,851,471 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   

It is heading lower  that is even better.  With luck it will drop to -4%

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   400954
Total BTC   15.274M
 
Difficulty   163491654909
Estimated   157266840733 in 230 blks    this estimate =  -3.81%
 
Network total   1081285.394 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.54 / 649 s
Home Bitcoin Markets Charts About

Did i say +4.2% I meant -4.2% Jk

With Eth exploding upward, i'm wondering what it will do to the BTC price. At the very least its going to divert a portion of the growth away.

Well Yesterday we ended up at +9.03% 157 Blocks which is the most we have seen this Period, so it looked like some Hash had been added, however this Morning I am not so certain. We have got off to a very slow start with Today's run rate at -19% so I think we might just be seeing some big variance swings?

For the Period we are back in the -4% to -5% band that we have been tracking for 4 days now albeit at the top end -4.2%. However there is still a small upward trend so I think the end point will be in the -3% to -4% range.

Rich

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    159,148,837,957 (-2.66%)
Adjust time:    After 247 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,125,453,310 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    2:10 (5.6 minutes ago)

I am still confident that I have sign correct on my guess (i.e negative). It may not be quite as negative as I would like, but it will be a welcome relief from the other adjustments this year. With luck, it will land right on Phil's guess, which would be pretty much a win all around!

To be honest I'm suprised I'm even in the running.  This period has been a roller coster, looked like down... .now going up a little.  Still would LOVE to see a negative just is a positive thing to have.

Price dropped around 15 dollars in 24 hours... so price not headed where I like it.

Well I shutdown my 2 Antminer S3, only reason was that I needed the power supply to power a few 280X.

Maybe other miners around the world are doing the exact same thing. They all have limited power or PSUs and are changing from BTC to ETH or vice versa.

final picks


-3.8 = Chris_Sabian
-3.6 = Kexkey
-3.4 = HerbPean
-3.1 = tertius993
-3.0 = wlefever
-2.9 = alh
-2.8 = networkgeek24
-2.7 = radiumsoup
-2.5 = Mikestang
-2.2 = indiemax
-1.7 = zebedee
-1.4 = bomberb17
-1.2 = philipma1957      this has my  -1.11% included within. if I win i roll it over.
-1.0 = HagssFIN
-0.9 = Witrebel  (I understand that to mean "-0.9 to -0.81" )  < correct
-0.8 = vortexz
-0.7 = ailikun
-0.5 = alfacro
-0.3 = RichBC
-0.2 = sloopy
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.1 = mavericklm
+0.4 = CrazyGuy
+0.7 = Notlist3d


I think the winner will be from  the section above.

We had a hit day today.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1456878001413

400898 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 23:59:08

400742 (Main Chain)   2016-03-02 00:20:10

157 blocks  =   +9%  



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   160,384,294,473 (-1.90%)
Adjust time:   After 284 Blocks, About 2.0 days   -------           this will most likely not be enough blocks to go over +0.7%
Hashrate(?):   1,137,349,263 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   19:20 (3.4 minutes ago)

So when all is said and done  we may be very close to 0%

Oh, thats really sad to hear. I also lost some bucks at cryptsy too and now the competition is all about the USD/KWh - well, its the same it ever was. But even with 0.11/KWh I'm thinking to quit in a few months, maybe its not the worst idea. Thanks for the eth info.

@all
good luck with your picks (fingers crossed)