Topic: Diff thread Feb 7 to Feb 19? picks are closed. (Read 7881 times)

new thread link
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13937834


So 13.44%  gave us a rollover.

the funny thing is I started picks late  and we still all over guessed.

New thread coming up soon.




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   179,638,623,624 (+9.88%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 14.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,123,020,821 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:15 (4.5 minutes ago)


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s   a rollover


Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

new thread link https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13937834

I was vaguely wondering if the weather coud be correlated with the hashpower. Sounds crazy, sure.

What if there'd been heavy rains up in Sichuan mountains. Hydro dams have a temporary surplus of power, sell it off cheap to miners?

... hey take it even tinfoil hattier, miners mine more because rain, excess heat from mining causes more rain, miners mine more ...

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s


So we have around 60 bucks/month for one S7 @ $ 0.1/KWh. Ouch, tough stuff for homeminers these days.

Well I think we are there with +13.43% but need the official Figure.

Rich

Great quote!

As a non miner I do enjoy the game and the knowledge base you share

as it gives me a broader insight to where Bitcoin may be heading.

Mining does appear to be a tough game to be in ,so best of luck to all

A strong Day yesterday with +20.83% 174 Blocks. Run Rate for the period at +13.8% and will probably rise a little from there. 23 Blocks to go so looks like we will finish up around 11:00 at +14%

How these Periods run never ceases to surprise.  I am going to take a look at the hash rate for the Big Farms for the last few Days & see if that reveals anything?


Rich

I think there is a good chance it's Bitmain on S7's on a decent amount.  Small user's have gotten notices (at least some) on shipping.

And look at big side of it PCFLI's group I like to watch due to being a large quantity ordered. They still claim not to have miners it seems - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1283287.240

Next one will hurt if these all go back online and if bitmain fills up slots with next batches S7's.  The next batch they show shipping as " ANTMINER S7 BATCH 11 - Shipped out from March 1st~5th" so likely they will run those for a small bit of time.

looks like a large amount of mining hash slowly shut down in the days after the chinese new year ended.  i am thinking that they are now shipping these units to customers and we shall see ALL of the prior hash rate AND MORE up and running on the network within a week.  this is just the calm before the storm.  20%+ next jump is not outside the realm of whats possible.

I think the rollover is very exciting and may attrack more people in the game, which is cool! 

Funny that weather is more predictable than mining difficulty...

I don't know about that I think that I would pick a snow ball's chance  in h--l over  Dekker3D.

I am thinking I will go back to rollover not ending and try to be very careful about cheaters.
I did link the excitement of the bigger prizes.

One of you guys could be the lucky one... especially Dekker3D!!

 

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957 ____  I am hoping for a natural disaster to destroy all the new farms

+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+17.7 = Kexkey ---------- corrected my miss
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul  ------------------ got it now
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s
+25.5 = radiumsoup --------------- corrected my miss

+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            +28 for me     Smiley  = wrong    @ icey please correct post

+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu


final picks are above.  note I missed Kexkey and radiumsoup

 The chances are we carry over.

People in S7 thread have been notified on shipping on some of them it sounds like on batch 10.  I still think part of the downward trend is just gear switching locations.  Seems like big and small buyers of Bitmain getting S7's after holiday's there.

not sure if it is whole amount though as I agree that would be a lot of S7's. But none the less it has to be part of the downward trend.  If  I'm right it will go back up pretty soon, but I could be wrong .  I would like to be in this case.

Estimated Next Difficulty:    164,396,453,400 (+14.07%)
Adjust time:    After 106 Blocks, About 16.1 hours
Hashrate(?):    1,123,310,757 GH/s

and it goes back up again!

This paints a great look at how it went down.  


But now she on full blast again.. Showing 1.3 peta by bitcoind which does coincide with the blue line of 24 hour avg
Edit this one shows it over a longer period   http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Best Regards
d57heinz

The downward trend has now flattened with Yesterday being +7.6% 155 Blocks. Run rate for the period is now +13.27% and looks like it will run flat at this rate until the end of the Period.

Rich

It is going down that is for sure:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    163,916,409,052 (+13.74%)
Adjust time:    After 211 Blocks, About 1.3 days

I thought for sure we would be in the 20's.  I still wonder if shipping of S7's for  batch 10 has anything to do with it would temporarily reduce hashing as they move centers.   Big guy's in mining like PCFLI are getting shipment after the holiday that ended: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13860532

And if there are more like him it's hard to tell how many sales as I suspect it is a lot with big volume sales, and regular smaller buyers of batch 10.

Coming into the home stretch here, looks like it'll be right around 10% increase by the re-target.  I was way off lol but its hard to predict far in advance like I did.

Man, I wish someone would build a hydro station in the mountains behind me so I could get some $0.01 power!  Even if just for a little while, it would be a sweet experiment...