Topic: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd - page 3. (Read 8193 times)

302 to go means we made 1714 blocks


https://blockchain.info/blocks


423058 (Main Chain)   2016-07-31 19:27:36

421334 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:07:12


12 days     12 x 144  = 1728
20 hours    20 x    6  =   120
20 mins       2 x    1  =       2

1850 = 0%

1714/1850 -1 = -7.35135%  is real time number


things have picked up a bit so -6 to -8  look to be where we will end up

-8.3 would be the best number I have a feeling if I don't win I'll have been very close!

I'd have to assume it's going to be somewhere around -8% or -9% with the current trends.

We look good!


http://nextdifficulty.com/

Conservative = -8.1%
Current?       = -8.6%
Continous     = -10.1%


All of those are very good numbers.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   199,085,409,986 (-6.75%)
Adjust time:   After 504 Blocks, About 3.8 days

Hashrate(?):   1,417,088,328 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.0 minutes >>>>>>>>>> this is close to -10%
3 blocks: 32.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   


http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE
Current Hashrate: 1398453 TH/s* - Current price $ 648.001
Conservative: -7.6% -8.3% Continous: -10.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:195778120560
Change will happen on appr. August 3, 2016, 4:07 am
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 506
Bitcoin block reward halving date: July 10, 2016, 12:06 pm or -20 days
Last updated July 30, 2016, 8:46 am GMT, last block: 422854


http://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks   422856
Total BTC   15.786M
 
Difficulty   213492501108
Estimated   203709668234 in 504 blks
 
Network total   1467345.115 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.76 / 625 s  >>>> this is about 7.84%


We are hanging in there maybe we end up -7.5%

The upturn is very small, maybe around 194 diff in the last two days. So the difficulty might really end around 199 this period, with the possibility to go bit down next difficulty period as well (maybe as low as 190-195 if not many new units plugs in).

Looks like a little upturn in network hash power, possible some of this drop really was old gear coming off line and we'll see a bit of the new gear start to come back in and take its place.  Although it would be nice to see a few periods of negative adjustment while maintaining a strong btc price.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,393,792,649 (-7.54%)
Adjust time:   After 599 Blocks, About 4.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,403,757,498 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   11:40 (2.6 minutes ago)


Numbers are decent.

As for what happens next  1ph farms or bigger with 5 cent power or less can stay with s-7's they should wait as the s-9 are costly.

but slow replacement may be what all the farms will do.

since the s-7 at 8 cent power or less make money

a 200 s-7 farm is 940th
it makes 190 usd a day at 8 cent
it makes 250 usd  a day at  7 cent
it makes  322 usd a day at 6 cent
it makes 375 usd a day at 5 cent.

if diff drops to 199
it makes 241 a day at 8 cent
it makes 307 a day at 7 cent
it makes 373 a day at 6 cent
it makes 409 a day at 5 cent


so the s-7 farms will be slow to switch to s-9

s-5 will look to switch to s-7 over s-9

if they have 3 cent 4 cent or 5 cent power

18.07.2016 23:22   421344
29.07.2016 06:57   422705


1361   blocks
Estimated diff change -8.38%   
Estimated diff  195604406292

seems nothing has changed since yesterday.

The thing I keep thinking of is most of the "big mines" for lack of better term already have put in the money for info-structure. So I don't see a lot of them going away unless they go the way of say SP and go bankrupt.   I think a lot of these mines will upgrade just depends when.  And honestly some of these mines might be in places where electricity is so cheap a S7 upgrade might make sense in some cases.

But I could be all off base on it with upgrades.  I just am surprised on drop I thought we would have seen it sooner.  But it is a little bit smaller drop on bitwisdom (although not by much).

Bitcoin Difficulty:    213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:    198,646,231,015 (-6.95%)
Adjust time:    After 667 Blocks, About 5.1 days
Hashrate(?):    1,402,236,920 GH/s

You missed the window.

Kexkey = -8.4

Thanks Phil!

18.07.2016 23:22   421344
28.07.2016 19:42   422646


1302 blocks expected diff rise   -8.18%   expected diff 196036386838

so far since last diff change.

@Phil i know this is way off topic.. Do you know who runs bitmainwarranty.  I placed an order on the 19th and have yet to hear a peep from them.  I ordered from bitmain the parts i needed and they have arrived already lol.  I did have one s7 come with a defective fan. If the control board doesnt show the fan at proper speed it wont let it hash.> Took a good long while to figure that one out let me tell yea  I had to pull a fan from s4 to replace but sadly its only 4200 rpm max and i need 6000.  I had to downclock that one back to 600 from 700.  Anyway thanks for the help in advance if you can provide any.  

removed the link.. didnt realize it had so much info at the bottom.. as if i didnt get enough .jar and bitcoin wallet download emails enough as it is lol

Looking for some 6k rpm fans if anyone know of good place to get some? Thanks


Best Regards
d57heinz

Picks are open

tertius993          = -12.1
d57heinz           = -11.3
Lindin99             = -11.1
javierfjavier        = -10.5
ZedZedNova       = -9.9
traxor                 = -9.6
tntdgcr               = -9.4
edonkey             = -9.0
alh                     =  -8.9
topiOleg             = -8.8

-8.5 for me   or is it  networkgeek24


cpfreeplz            = -8.3
Erumara             = -8.2
Cuidler              = -8.1
slastar               = -8.0
leowonderful      =-7.9
Notlist3d           = -7.8
Mikestang          = -7.7
-droid-              =  -7.6
in2tactics           = -7.5
blindminer         = -7.1
generalt             = -6.8
ingiltere              = -6.6
VRobb                = -6.5
dukeneptun         = -6.3
Psi                      = -6.2
ATguy                 = -6.0
DanielRo            = -5.9
wpt1wpt1           = -5.8
testerman          = -5.7
vg54dett            = -5.6
vapourminer       = -5.5
Veves1                = -5.4      vapourminer had -5.5 first
albertamining     = -4.9
merelcoin           = -4.8
  
gt_addict            = -4.7
HerbPean            = -4.2
NeuroticFish        = -4.1
petahashminer    = -3.9
Jebuswalks22      = -3.6

GreatNorthData   = -3.0
lolxxxx                = -2.5
Goms                 = -1.5
philipma1957      = -1.2
 adaseb              =   0.0


+1.0                   = pusttiu


@ Veves1 I moved you to   -5.4  as vapourminer had -5.5 first

I had skipped it on the list.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   197,075,864,371 (-7.69%)
Adjust time:   After 752 Blocks, About 5.8 days >>>>716 is only 36 blocks left


Hashrate(?):   1,379,561,863 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 11.1 minutes
3 blocks: 33.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   10:5 (2.8 minutes ago)

d57heinz = -11.3

Going out on a limb on this one.

Nice surprise on the drop.   Thanks again Phil for keeping this alive.  One of the few threads left I enjoy reading

Best Regards
d57heinz

@philipma1957
-------------
1195

9 days  x 144 = 1296
1 hour  x 10   =  10
20 min          =     2

1308 = normal 0%

1195/1308- 1 =  -0.8639%   real time  ===> this calculation is also wrong 1195/1308 = 91.36%

--------------
and this has to be
1 hour  x 6   =  6

so 1191/1308 - 1 = - 8.94 %



-------------------------------------
according to my updated calculations,

18.07.2016 23:22   421344
28.07.2016 08:14   422571

1227 blocks states that   -9.06% so far, since the last diff change.


by the way, diff is decreasing continuously.

tertius993 = -12.1

any crazy big s-9 upgrade is not sensible.

but another miner like bitfury,avalon, insosilicon(sp) could do that.

As long as the s-9 is the only working .1 watt machine bitmaintech can go slow and force all of us to go slow.

they have no need to rush as we have  past the ½ing and they are the only game in town