Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd - page 8.

topiOleg

full member

Activity: 174

Merit: 100

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 24, 2016, 03:30:54 PM

http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE

Current Hashrate: 1449804 TH/s* - Current price $ 654.89

Conservative: -4.8% -5.7% Continous: -8.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:201281440354 <<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be 201
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 1247

422123 (Main Chain) 2016-07-24 19:31:55
421344 (Main Chain) 2016-07-18 23:22:42

779 blocks in 5 days 20 hours 10 min

841 would be 0%

779/841-1 = -7.3721% real time.

Im surprised none of the nextdifficulty.com numbers match the real time one. And its the simplest method how to predict difficulty so I dunno why they dont use it (actually you need some blocks found to even compute it, but after first day, the real time prediction is usefull).

alh

legendary

Activity: 1843

Merit: 1050

We have to get a drop slightly more negative than -6% to get below 200 difficulty. Summer heat has definitely played into my plans for hashing until September, possibly longer.

Looks to me like Bitmain can ride this wave for a while longer and hold the price on S9. Just my guess.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Some fast numbers:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   204,273,155,599 (-4.32%) <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be 204...
Adjust time:   After 1239 Blocks, About 9.1 days >> picks will start at 1116
Hashrate(?):   1,382,033,094 GH/s

http://nextdifficulty.com/

NEXT BITCOIN DIFFICULTY CHANGE

Current Hashrate: 1449804 TH/s* - Current price $ 654.89

Conservative: -4.8% -5.7% Continous: -8.4 %
Next Difficulty Value:201281440354 <<<<<<<<<<<<< new diff to be 201
Blocks to solve in this difficulty: 1247

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   422121
Total BTC   15.777M

Difficulty   213492501108
Estimated   206563080941 in 1239 blks <<<<<<<<<<<<<new diff to be 206

Network total   1375352.598 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.40 / 667 s <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< 5.40 should be 6.00 this is down 10%

all of the above are most likely reflecting the turning off of .5 watt efficient or worse gear

  and of course summer heat as most hashrate is north of the Equator.

I am hoping for this to continue for this jump and all of August.

I would love to hit Sept at a diff of 185 to 190.

After that it will be upwards.

422123 (Main Chain)   2016-07-24 19:31:55
421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

779 blocks in 5 days 20 hours 10 min

841 would be 0%

779/841-1 = -7.3721% real time.

while -7.3721% seems good it is early.

but if we do that we will get under a diff of 200

TheYankeesWin!

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 300

Phil I see we keep going lower on bitcoinwisdom.
Are we going to go under 200 Diff?

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   204,394,973,862 (-4.26%)
Adjust time:   After 1275 Blocks, About 9.3 days

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 23, 2016, 06:25:16 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 23, 2016, 04:04:09 AM

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

more of the same slow and down beat.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   206,830,903,631 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.7 days

Hashrate(?):   1,408,927,308 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108
Estimated Next Difficulty:   205,231,862,280 (-3.87%)
Adjust time:   After 1327 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,382,169,496 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

Still slowing down.

Difficulty History

Date       Difficulty     Change   Hash Rate
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s

May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s

If you look at May 12 to Aug 15th which is ninety two days

Diff will be very good.
We may hit the aug 2 with a diff at 200 and that would stay until about aug 15th.

a 92 day stretch of 1% diff jumps. maybe

Another reason for drop is USA is smoking hot temps in most of the usa. so some down clocks are happening.

I would love to see btc drop to 500-565 price.

This would really cause a strong drop in hash rate.

mwizard

full member

Activity: 203

Merit: 100

There may be a short term small drop over the next few weeks as any high electricity cost systems turn off.

But over the next 12 months I would expect to see a large increase in difficulty. The hash rate should double or triple over the next year as the S9s and similar 14/16 nm systems come on line.

The S9 currently has a variable cost break even of 30 cents per kWh. They would still be profitable to run for large miners even if the network hash rate was 4 times higher.

Over the long term electricity cost and Bitcoin value are the two factors driving the hash rate. They determine when miners are turned off. Anyone paying under say 5 cents per kWh can expect their S9 to have a very long life.

So expect a small fall in hash rate now, and a climbing hash rate over the next few months even if the Bitcoin value stays unchanged.

alh

legendary

Activity: 1843

Merit: 1050

Looks like you are right. The electric bills have arrived, and numerous machines have been turned off. The nextdifficulty site is projecting a -4% adjustment, with a possibility of -8%. Nothing particularly exciting on the BTC price front at $655/BTC.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 23, 2016, 04:04:09 AM

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

more of the same slow and down beat.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   206,830,903,631 (-3.12%)
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.7 days

Hashrate(?):   1,408,927,308 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   213,492,501,108

Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,154,251,109 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:After 1430 Blocks, About 10.1 days <<<<<< PICKS BEGIN AT 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,444,050,334 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   4:0 (2.1 minutes ago)

This has been a very slow adjustment period.

d57heinz

legendary

Activity: 1453

Merit: 1011

Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 21, 2016, 02:00:29 PM

Quote from: d57heinz on July 21, 2016, 01:17:12 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 20, 2016, 10:54:35 PM

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe. finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:) tough team on us last few series. got a quick question. s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f. humidity if off the charts. im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less. running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while. Also same with 625. what is min i should go with and not have issues? Thanks

on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/. Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken. Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz

IF YOU have batch 9 or newer 650.0, 656.25 , 662.50, 668.75, 675.0

As for diff calcs yeah I have found a few inconsistencies here and there before the ½ ing but nothing major.

@ Mikestang you have a good question as when I do real world real time numbers they are always close but don't quite match the sites.

And I know I am consistent and my real time method is accurate.

pretty simple 144 blocks per day is 0% so take the time expired from the diff to the current time.

Example say 3 days so 3 x 144 = 432

so 420 made
432 = 0%

420/432-1 = 0.972222 -1 = -0.0277777 x 100 to convert to percent = -2.77777 %
so if last diff was

Jul 18 2016 213,492,501,108 0.04% 1,528,238,850 GH/s

just x the numbers above to get an answer .

so current diff would drop to 207,562,153,854
current hash would drop to 1,485,787,431

but those real time numbers I just gave are true from the start to the 3rd day

I know bitcoinwisdom shows 3 hashrates :

504 blocks gray line which was wrong
1008 blocks blue line which looked okay
2016 blocks red line which is accurate

since the blue and gray change a lot they are at multiple points in time and the chart does not show those times.

thanks so much.. will give the 650 a shot till the weather breaks. Finally got my s9's today.. 54.88$ for customs fees. Which i expected> just glad they made it.

best Regards
d57heinz

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: d57heinz on July 21, 2016, 01:17:12 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 20, 2016, 10:54:35 PM

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe. finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:) tough team on us last few series. got a quick question. s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f. humidity if off the charts. im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less. running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while. Also same with 625. what is min i should go with and not have issues? Thanks

on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/. Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken. Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz

IF YOU have batch 9 or newer 650.0, 656.25 , 662.50, 668.75, 675.0

As for diff calcs yeah I have found a few inconsistencies here and there before the ½ ing but nothing major.

@ Mikestang you have a good question as when I do real world real time numbers they are always close but don't quite match the sites.

And I know I am consistent and my real time method is accurate.

pretty simple 144 blocks per day is 0% so take the time expired from the diff to the current time.

Example say 3 days so 3 x 144 = 432

so 420 made
432 = 0%

420/432-1 = 0.972222 -1 = -0.0277777 x 100 to convert to percent = -2.77777 %
so if last diff was

Jul 18 2016 213,492,501,108 0.04% 1,528,238,850 GH/s

just x the numbers above to get an answer .

so current diff would drop to 207,562,153,854
current hash would drop to 1,485,787,431

but those real time numbers I just gave are true from the start to the 3rd day

I know bitcoinwisdom shows 3 hashrates :

504 blocks gray line which was wrong
1008 blocks blue line which looked okay
2016 blocks red line which is accurate

since the blue and gray change a lot they are at multiple points in time and the chart does not show those times.

Mikestang

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Quote from: VRobb on July 21, 2016, 12:58:43 PM

Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations?

Do we know how these sites calculate (estimate would be a more accurate word) network hash rate? If we know their method we might be able to figure out why.

d57heinz

legendary

Activity: 1453

Merit: 1011

Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 20, 2016, 10:54:35 PM

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

........

hehe. finally got a series win on ya from the cubs:) tough team on us last few series. got a quick question. s7 what is good freq to go with .. its nasty today and next couple days here.. heat index of 110f. humidity if off the charts. im already pushing 70 c only on the center board and outer boards are a couple c less. running at 700mhz but from my tests at home it seems 600 would quit hashing after a while. Also same with 625. what is min i should go with and not have issues? Thanks

on the diff.. looks like we seeing a drop.. hope thats not a precursor to the price;/. i was hoping to see a nice upswing but seems to be struggling.. eth is just blowing my mind how well its holding and rising.. coinbase just added it to the coinbase.com side.https://blog.coinbase.com/2016/07/21/coinbase-adds-support-for-ethereum/. Makes it easier on me.. although ive had a very pleasant experience with kraken. Nice to be verified at both anyway.

edit> on the drop i see it aswell on the zeroblock app for iphone.. they used to have a website but its no longer.. only for android iphone now.> good feed for news too

yesterday it was showing about 12 min avg block times.. today its showing 10 min.. i do believe its based of last 24 hours but im not 100% on that

Best Regards
d57heinz

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: VRobb on July 21, 2016, 12:58:43 PM

Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations? If you don't update the block reward than that part will be wrong, sure, but how do they f-up the hash calc? If you know blocks expected, blocks found, and difficulty what's the problem?

smh Huh

I am not sure and I don't want to put on a tinfoil hat, but it is the spec thread so how about it is deliberate to deceive newer investors?

Now that is the true tinfoil hat/ conspiracy spec.

Not saying that.

this is still out of date

so it can not be checked against here.

this one below seems to be the best graph

VRobb

hero member

Activity: 1610

Merit: 538

I'm in BTC XTC

Hey philip I got a quick question: How would the halving interfere with any of the sites hash calculations? If you don't update the block reward then that part will be wrong, sure, but how do they f-up the hash calc? If you know blocks expected, blocks found, and difficulty what's the problem?

smh Huh

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

As a Mets fan I should say no ,but your Yankees are not winning much so here goes.

421642 (Main Chain)   2016-07-21 02:40:53

421344 (Main Chain)   2016-07-18 23:22:42

299 blocks made.

2 days 3 hours 20 min

288
18
2

308 = 0%

so 299/308-1 = -2.92%
but a long way to go.

look below at this trend

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s

So May 12 to July 20 1,390,530,167 to 1,483,613,935 in hash rate not so bad

TheYankeesWin!

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 300

Then Phil please do a real world or real time difficulty %.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Mikestang on July 20, 2016, 05:51:19 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 19, 2016, 11:40:48 AM

As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:

the gray line on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong

So it has me wondering, were the "spikes" we were seeing on the bitcoinwisdom graphs for all these adjustments fake spikes? Did the number of solved blocks during those spikes correspond with the rise and fall of network hash rate? I honestly didn't pay that close of attention, but now it brings to question many months of data tracking.

I checked back at random since nov. all seem good before the ½ing but a lot of graph data after ½ ing is wrong.

It is a big undertaking to fully analyze it. But fast checks seem to show issues started after ½ing. I think that all sites have not fully updated their soft ware

Mikestang

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 19, 2016, 11:40:48 AM

As I have mentioned graphs right now seem to be wrong:

the gray line on bitcoinwisdom is not correct.
we never did the 1650ph it shows for yesterday

So two of three major sites are wrong

So it has me wondering, were the "spikes" we were seeing on the bitcoinwisdom graphs for all these adjustments fake spikes? Did the number of solved blocks during those spikes correspond with the rise and fall of network hash rate? I honestly didn't pay that close of attention, but now it brings to question many months of data tracking.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: alh on July 20, 2016, 12:55:41 PM

Besides, if you want to replace the 20PH with S9 hardware, you'll need to purchase at least 1700 of them. Even with a discount, that will be significant money to send off to Bitmain. I wonder what kind of terms you get if you offer to buy 1700 S9 units from Bitmain?

and lets say this pretend farm does 5 s-9's a week in a week he gains 60th but he can take 50 s-5's off line.

losing 57.5 th

net hash rate gain = 2.5 th

power savings 7000 watts for the near gear adds on but 30,000 watts drops

So that is 23 kwatts saved which is 552 kwatts per day and 3864 kwatts saved in a week. that is 220 usd in power savings with a gain in 2.5th hash rate.

So this 20ph s-5 farm should simply add 5 s-9s a week for now since price is high.
If and when price drops he can speed up his conversion.

now that is the s-5 guy with cheap power.

if you are 20ph in s-7's with 6 cent power just mine and hold your coins

Topic: Diff thread July 18 to Aug 1st? picks are Now closed! prize = $50 usd - page 8. (Read 8168 times)