Diff thread May 24 to June 6? picks are closed!!.... prize = 0.10 btc - page 8.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Cuidler on May 29, 2016, 11:05:14 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 29, 2016, 08:35:32 AM

Looks like bitmaintech tried two things.

1) pumped price a bit with Chinese trading
2) lowered diff a bit by keeping the s-9s off line

Why? I have a few ideas

But looking for your ideas.

S7 batch 18 is in the sell at bitmain site, from 2nd June.

First they must sell all their S7´s, they could start selling S9´s only after S7 batch 18 is sold. Obviously good Bitcoin price might bring interest even to the S7´s, so I guess bitmain is already mining with S9´s only - and all their S7´s are offline instead.

I suppose they took all s-7s off line .

Made s-7 life's with some and kept others as s-7s

But to,keep diff down they have some s-9 on line not all.

They started selling the s-7 lites which was a good deal if you had psus of better quality as you could sell the one they shipped to you.

I figured you could buy 4 s-7 lites with shipping for 1291 - 291 for there gold psus if sold on eBay.

So 10.8 th for 1000 bucks.

If you purchased 2 s-7 s they came to 1020 dollars

So you were getting 10.8 vs 9.4 th for less $$

And I would think more over clock. Since it was 8 board vs 6 boards

Cuidler

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Activity: 294

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 29, 2016, 08:35:32 AM

Looks like bitmaintech tried two things.

1) pumped price a bit with Chinese trading
2) lowered diff a bit by keeping the s-9s off line

Why? I have a few ideas

But looking for your ideas.

S7 batch 18 is in the sell at bitmain site, from 2nd June.

First they must sell all their S7´s, they could start selling S9´s only after S7 batch 18 is sold. Obviously good Bitcoin price might bring interest even to the S7´s, so I guess bitmain is already mining with S9´s only - and all their S7´s are offline instead.

pogress

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Price pump and keeping difficulty low might mean S9 should be start selling in few days. It would make sence for bitmaintech to have hands in both events to sell as much S9s as possible, because the sentiment was with price stagnating, difficulty going up and halving comming, S9 cannot be profitable.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Looks like bitmaintech tried two things.

1) pumped price a bit with Chinese trading
2) lowered diff a bit by keeping the s-9s off line

Why? I have a few ideas

But looking for your ideas.

ezeminer

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Activity: 2212

Merit: 1118

Lie down. Have a cookie

Quote from: adaseb on May 29, 2016, 12:12:16 AM

Really really surprised that the difficulty isnt going up despite BTC going up 33% in just 2 days.

Trading overseas was what sparked this I think.. China was at 3885 CNY which was like 590 USD, at one point it was a $70 difference in price here compared to there.

adaseb

legendary

Activity: 3808

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Really really surprised that the difficulty isnt going up despite BTC going up 33% in just 2 days.

topiOleg

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 28, 2016, 05:10:18 PM

Do you understand the math behind a jump from 1200 ph to 2200 ph? Do you actually think that much variance is possible?

I would think to do the jump like that the odds are higher then 365,000,000 to one. so every 1 million years the network might do it on luck.

So you said most was luck that would be the 1000ph jump was 550ph luck and 450ph not luck.

We have been clocking the network for years on these threads. We have noticed a 150 to 225 ph flux in the hash rate time and time again way too much for it to be luck.

the s-7 is 4.7 th the new miner may be 14th about 3 x that 4.7th so 3x 150 to 225 = 450 to 675ph less then the 1000ph spike. So maybe you are correct and it is only 450 ph not 1000ph.

It is too much in the hands of one company.

I have understanding of statistic. By quickly looking I see around 300 ph flux as a normal (daily high-min) coresponding to 1 sigma, thus we are looking at about 3 sigma effect, or 0.27% (1 in about 370) if it come just by gausian variance.

If you see such 3 sigma effect which happened on 23rd much more often than about once a year, then yes, its likely not just gausian variance.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: topiOleg on May 28, 2016, 04:25:18 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 27, 2016, 09:54:52 PM

but the problem we have for btc is that current rate is 1,367,000,000 and it can go to 2,200,000,000

over night which means the diff rate is truly easy for someone to shift up and down at will.

this can't possibly be a good thing for any one in the game.

I think most if not all of the 2200 ph peak on the 23rd is just luck. There is no reason for Bitmain to show people how much additional hash they have right before they start selling S9 - it would be dumb showing they have ready 1000 ph which could almost double difficulty after they sell all their S9s. And if the peak come from someone else, there is not reason to stop mining with it.

Do you understand the math behind a jump from 1200 ph to 2200 ph? Do you actually think that much variance is possible?

I would think to do the jump like that the odds are higher then 365,000,000 to one. so every 1 million years the network might do it on luck.

So you said most was luck that would be the 1000ph jump was 550ph luck and 450ph not luck.

We have been clocking the network for years on these threads. We have noticed a 150 to 225 ph flux in the hash rate time and time again way too much for it to be luck.

the s-7 is 4.7 th the new miner may be 14th about 3 x that 4.7th so 3x 150 to 225 = 450 to 675ph less then the 1000ph spike. So maybe you are correct and it is only 450 ph not 1000ph.

It is too much in the hands of one company.

topiOleg

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Activity: 174

Merit: 100

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 27, 2016, 09:54:52 PM

but the problem we have for btc is that current rate is 1,367,000,000 and it can go to 2,200,000,000

over night which means the diff rate is truly easy for someone to shift up and down at will.

this can't possibly be a good thing for any one in the game.

I think most if not all of the 2200 ph peak on the 23rd is just luck. There is no reason for Bitmain to show people how much additional hash they have right before they start selling S9 - it would be dumb showing they have ready 1000 ph which could almost double difficulty after they sell all their S9s. And if the peak come from someone else, there is not reason to stop mining with it.

notlist3d

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Quote from: philipma1957 on May 28, 2016, 11:29:37 AM

* Stats up above in post

but the problem we have for btc is that current hash rate is 1,367,000,000 and it can go to 2,200,000,000
hash rate overnight which means the diff rate is truly easy for someone to shift up and down at will.

this can't possibly be a good thing for any one in the game.

price at coinbase is just under 500

The thing I can't understand is why would anyone want to shift down with gear? It seems they would want to get as much BTC as possible and run the gear. Maybe if someone was selling next gen and wanted people to see smaller hash rate. But I just don't see reason currently.

I am happy with price though I was wanting 460 at least and we got almost 500, so a heck of a value increase. If only Ether would have got the jump to in value.

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

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'The right to privacy matters'

https://blockchain.info/blocks

413797 (Main Chain) 2016-05-28 16:09:52 current block

413282 (Main Chain) 2016-05-24 21:23:04 this was first one of this jump

516 blocks

3 days 432 blocks
19 hours 114   blocks

546 =0%

516/546 -1 = (-5.494505494505%)

real time number above

future prediction below
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   199,312,067,531
Estimated Next Difficulty:   208,371,305,508 (+4.55%)
Adjust time:   After 1499 Blocks, About 10.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,352,899,036 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes
Updated:   12:25 (3.5 minutes ago)

but the problem we have for btc is that current hash rate is 1,367,000,000 and it can go to 2,200,000,000
hash rate overnight which means the diff rate is truly easy for someone to shift up and down at will.

this can't possibly be a good thing for any one in the game.

price at coinbase is just under 500

ezeminer

legendary

Activity: 2212

Merit: 1118

Lie down. Have a cookie

Quote from: RichBC on May 28, 2016, 01:08:45 AM

Wow look at the price... getting very close to $500.

assume we will see some selling if we hit it? This is what Cryptocoinsnews had to say.

Quote

The increase in price can be attributed to the growing demand from the Chinese market, with a weakening yuan. CCN resident analyst Venzen Khaosan elaborated on the BTC/CNY exchange charts in yesterday’s analysis piece, speculating that the price will eventually strike out for $500.

So Yesterday was -3.47% with 139 Blocks and again a slowish start to Today, 6 Hours in, with the Period to Date Run Rate at -5.9%

Rich

Well if in a week it is still $500 then we might start going higher. Block halving is around the corner.

RichBC

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Wow look at the price... getting very close to $500.

assume we will see some selling if we hit it? This is what Cryptocoinsnews had to say.

Quote

The increase in price can be attributed to the growing demand from the Chinese market, with a weakening yuan. CCN resident analyst Venzen Khaosan elaborated on the BTC/CNY exchange charts in yesterday’s analysis piece, speculating that the price will eventually strike out for $500.

So Yesterday was -3.47% with 139 Blocks and again a slowish start to Today, 6 Hours in, with the Period to Date Run Rate at -5.9%

Rich

Mikestang

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Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

[conspiracy]Would it be a 38% attack if they use it that way? I would think that if it became obvious that diff was manipulated (not saying it hasn't already been...) then the price would tank once people saw what was happening; it would be a self-defeating attack. Or are we seeing it happen that way now?[/conspiracy]

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

413720 (Main Chain)   2016-05-28 02:47:47 current block

413282 (Main Chain) 2016-05-24 21:23:04 this was first one of this jump

439 blocks

3 days 432 blocks
5 hours 30 blocks
30 minutes 3 blocks

462 =0%

439/462 -1 = (-4.978354978355%)

real time number above

future prediction below
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   199,312,067,531
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,449,218,722 (+5.59%)
Adjust time:   After 1576 Blocks, About 10.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,367,179,925 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.8 minutes
Updated:   22:55 (5.7 minutes ago)

but the problem we have for btc is that current rate is 1,367,000,000 and it can go to 2,200,000,000

over night which means the diff rate is truly easy for someone to shift up and down at will.

this can't possibly be a good thing for any one in the game.

adaseb

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Activity: 3808

Merit: 1723

Quote from: ATguy on May 27, 2016, 04:45:57 PM

Quote from: Mikestang on May 27, 2016, 01:42:43 PM

Quote from: HerbPean on May 27, 2016, 01:14:22 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-declares-bankruptcy-cites-upcoming-bitcoin-subsidy-halving/

Look like around 50 Peta is going down at the halving

This is what I've been hoping for! At some point it will not be possible to run the megamines for the reward they receive. Here's to several hundred more PH dropping off the network!

I dont believe the 50 Peta is going out of the network. Most likely their ASICs are going to be sold, so the 50 Peta leaving the network only for some time.

What might actually happen in future is the power not effecient ASICs ends in the hands of those with free electricity where megamines even with cheap electricity and most power effecient ASICs could not compete with - but maybe this never happens.

What miners did they mine with anyways? KNC Neptunes? Or did they have some better technology?

adaseb

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Activity: 3808

Merit: 1723

Pretty soon we will be turning off our GPUs rigs and turning on our Antminers.

Yearly highs just broke!

ATguy

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Merit: 250

Quote from: Mikestang on May 27, 2016, 01:42:43 PM

Quote from: HerbPean on May 27, 2016, 01:14:22 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-declares-bankruptcy-cites-upcoming-bitcoin-subsidy-halving/

Look like around 50 Peta is going down at the halving

This is what I've been hoping for! At some point it will not be possible to run the megamines for the reward they receive. Here's to several hundred more PH dropping off the network!

I dont believe the 50 Peta is going out of the network. Most likely their ASICs are going to be sold, so the 50 Peta leaving the network only for some time.

What might actually happen in future is the power not effecient ASICs ends in the hands of those with free electricity where megamines even with cheap electricity and most power effecient ASICs could not compete with - but maybe this never happens.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Mikestang on May 27, 2016, 01:42:43 PM

Quote from: HerbPean on May 27, 2016, 01:14:22 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-declares-bankruptcy-cites-upcoming-bitcoin-subsidy-halving/

Look like around 50 Peta is going down at the halving

This is what I've been hoping for! At some point it will not be possible to run the megamines for the reward they receive. Here's to several hundred more PH dropping off the network!

yeah I guess but some mofo did that 1000ph spike. which is insane. So I have some deep concerns at the moment.

Mikestang

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Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Quote from: HerbPean on May 27, 2016, 01:14:22 PM

http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-declares-bankruptcy-cites-upcoming-bitcoin-subsidy-halving/

Look like around 50 Peta is going down at the halving

This is what I've been hoping for! At some point it will not be possible to run the megamines for the reward they receive. Here's to several hundred more PH dropping off the network!

Topic: Diff thread May 24 to June 6? picks are closed!!.... prize = 0.10 btc - page 8. (Read 8952 times)