Topic: Difficulty drop - page 2. (Read 6378 times)
Why are you guys still wildly guessing? Josh already said indirectly that they'd sold ~200 TH as of a few days ago. And if anything, I'd expect him to understate that figure, as a higher number discourages additional sales. I believe that by the end of the year, the network will be composed 90% of ASICs.
During that time, the folks with asics will take the majority of the coin generated... that's what 6048 blocks? that's 302400 btc going mostly to the people with the new asics. or aprox. 3.6 million USD.
You can't claim something like that since you don't know how much THash will ASICs add to network, per batch. It's not like current
hashrate share situation is 50% GPUs + 50% FPGA and it will change to 25% FPGA + 75% ASIC in under few months, or even years.
I beg to differ. If BFL delivers, that's exactly what will happen.
There's a thread where people publish the orders they placed with bfl. These amount to 37TH. This would account for 61% of total network hashing power already if added to the network right now. Of course that list is incomplete, so you can probably at least triple that to 111 TH (82%).
As soon as it hits 2016 blocks, it resets it back to make 10 minutes a block.
Well… not quite. It's only linear for sane changes— though it does have quartic convergence even in crazy cases. 
i think a lot of gpuminers will switch to litecoin mining, some already have
Problem is lets say you move 23GH/s worth of mining power from BTC to Litecoin and your aggressive in your settings you may make almost 4000 Litecoins a day at present difficulty give or take a few hundred.
Those that have been mining Litecoin's are going to try to cash in on the recent popularity. So you have to hope the speculators that opt to use BTC to purchase their speculative share of Litecoins are more then those moving their mining infrastructure over to Litecoin.
I can see speculative pressure moving Litecoin value up to the mid 0.0100 when valued against BTC. However if more "miners" join the network the returns will diminish quickly as there is no use for Litecoins apart from mine and dump at this time.
To sum up I'll point out the obvious. Unless more speculators buy up the pre-existing Litecoin available on the market. The popularity of moving mining infrastructure to Litecoin will in turn put pressure on the present value of Litecoin as early adopters choose to cash in their earnings and moving them to BTC and other potential fiat currencies such as USD.
i think a lot of gpuminers will switch to litecoin mining, some already have
Other thread tastes BFL now think shipping cold slip by a couple of weeks, meaning mid November. Add to that at least a week for international orders and its unlikely any non US residents will be mining on BFL ASIC gear until December at best!
I haven't been following the other offers so couldn't comment on them!
I haven't been following the other offers so couldn't comment on them!
I am just wondering if it will be as big a boon as people hope/claim being it is so close to halving. There will still only be 7200/2 coins available no matter what ASIC you have. Maybe if there were deliveries in October but that seems unlikely.
... so if we're scaling up to 10x or 20x difficulty, it could take awhile before the difficulty scales up to where it should be.
If the network hashrate changes significantly, the difficulty period will be very short. Scaling up won't take very long.
Not long in the sense of 'time taken' but if it's limited to 4x per adjustment that means 3 adjustments to get to between 40x and 50x.
During that time, the folks with asics will take the majority of the coin generated... that's what 6048 blocks? that's 302400 btc going mostly to the people with the new asics. or aprox. 3.6 million USD. If that happens in a day, we're going to see massive de-valuing at all exchanges and a steady climb back to pre-asic rates.
Suppose it is aprox 200 th/s after asics. running your 60gh/s single will bring in aproximate 1000 USD - which meets ROI on upgrades =P
I am just wondering if it will be as big a boon as people hope/claim being it is so close to halving. There will still only be 7200/2 coins available no matter what ASIC you have. Maybe if there were deliveries in October but that seems unlikely.
... so if we're scaling up to 10x or 20x difficulty, it could take awhile before the difficulty scales up to where it should be.
If the network hashrate changes significantly, the difficulty period will be very short. Scaling up won't take very long.
With the halving and one 4x difficulty adjustment from current levels 120GH/s should only produce around 5BTC a day if my math is right. Not really burning it up.
I am just wondering if it will be as big a boon as people hope/claim being it is so close to halving. There will still only be 7200/2 coins available no matter what ASIC you have. Maybe if there were deliveries in October but that seems unlikely.
I was under the impression that difficulty can only increase by 4x per adjustment... so if we're scaling up to 10x or 20x difficulty, it could take awhile before the difficulty scales up to where it should be.
I am just wondering if it will be as big a boon as people hope/claim being it is so close to halving. There will still only be 7200/2 coins available no matter what ASIC you have. Maybe if there were deliveries in October but that seems unlikely.
I would be surprised to see any REAL amount of asic devices hit the streets before Thanksgiving.
All I know is: when ASICs start being delivered, there will be a lot of thanks-giving.
sr. member
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Trust me, these default swaps will limit the risks
I would be surprised to see any REAL amount of asic devices hit the streets before Thanksgiving.
Well, unless someone else has some inside information that I don't know about 
The first public ASICs will be the week after 22 November from bASIC - Tom's specifically stated in his thread that week and I'd be surprised if he wasn't quite accurate in his statement (give or take a week)
As for BFL - still no sign of a reliable estimate update ... but that gives them only 6 weeks to equal or better Tom.
Yes I said 6 weeks, not 4-6 weeks
The first public ASICs will be the week after 22 November from bASIC - Tom's specifically stated in his thread that week and I'd be surprised if he wasn't quite accurate in his statement (give or take a week)
As for BFL - still no sign of a reliable estimate update ... but that gives them only 6 weeks to equal or better Tom.
Yes I said 6 weeks, not 4-6 weeks
Nope - it's 6 blocks an hour.
A little OT but:
Until ASICs come online, yes - 6 blocks an hour. After they come online, and before they reach a steady state, the Network hashrate could rise significantly within a single difficulty period. This would mean blocks being solved much faster than usual, a much shorter difficulty period than usual, and probably an increased number of orphaned blocks.
Did a quick off the cuff calculation. We're currently on block # 202,616 (and likely beyond that by the time you read this) and we move to the 25 BTC Reward at block # 210,000 which is a mere 7,384 blocks from now. Bitcoin charts currently shows we're doing about 7 blocks/hour. So, at that rate we're just a smidge under 44 days till the switch to 25 BTC. ASICs are supposed to start shipping in 20-30 days, so at most, the first ASIC's hashing are going to see the 50 BTC reward for maybe 2-3 weeks, and considering that once they start cranking the blocks are going to come fast and furious for a round or two while the difficulty ramps up, so my guess is those 2-3 weeks get compressed to under a week.
So, just for grins, I'm throwing a guesstimate out there that we'll see the switch to 25 BTC right around November 15th.
Nope - it's 6 blocks an hour.So, just for grins, I'm throwing a guesstimate out there that we'll see the switch to 25 BTC right around November 15th.
It doesn't matter what it is at the moment - it matters what it will average over the next 7,000 blocks.
As soon as it hits 2016 blocks, it resets it back to make 10 minutes a block.
With a 10% gain over 2 weeks that will only drop 1.4 days (i.e. 302 hrs instead of 336 hours)
But it will reset after that.
It's quite unlikely to keep going at a constant 10% increase every day for the next 7,000 blocks.
... and to show that point, over the last 7 days (since the last change) it has actually averaged -1.33%
Did a quick off the cuff calculation. We're currently on block # 202,616 (and likely beyond that by the time you read this) and we move to the 25 BTC Reward at block # 210,000 which is a mere 7,384 blocks from now. Bitcoin charts currently shows we're doing about 7 blocks/hour. So, at that rate we're just a smidge under 44 days till the switch to 25 BTC. ASICs are supposed to start shipping in 20-30 days, so at most, the first ASIC's hashing are going to see the 50 BTC reward for maybe 2-3 weeks, and considering that once they start cranking the blocks are going to come fast and furious for a round or two while the difficulty ramps up, so my guess is those 2-3 weeks get compressed to under a week.
So, just for grins, I'm throwing a guesstimate out there that we'll see the switch to 25 BTC right around November 15th.
So, just for grins, I'm throwing a guesstimate out there that we'll see the switch to 25 BTC right around November 15th.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Trust me, these default swaps will limit the risks
Definitely agree with most of you. Have to reinvest a significant amount to keep reaping benefits. I have to do it piece by piece, but I continue to add until I notice I have surpassed my goals. What I like about the reward halving is the fact that I know I have 4 years till I have to worry about it again. Therefore I will probably try and accumulate as much hardware as I can over the next 12 to 18 months(depending upon the performance increase on next generation products). After that I hope I can slow down on purchasing and use what I've accumulated for the remainder of the reward period(pretty much between 2.5 and 3 years).
Well, being late to the scene, I'm considering buying a little sc unit from butterfly labs but I have my concerns about profitability (in part because no deliveries have been made yet and no effect can be seen yet).
However if it is still profiltable after a few months I would buy an asic unit and start mining as a first time miner.
(I have a laptop with internal video card for the moment, i even tried cpu mining a few months ago hehe..)
However if it is still profiltable after a few months I would buy an asic unit and start mining as a first time miner.
(I have a laptop with internal video card for the moment, i even tried cpu mining a few months ago hehe..)
Never too late to start mining.Just get what you can afford & reinvest the mined BTC in another device & so on.Eventually you will get to a more profitable point.
Thats my thinking for my situation,but,don't put in what you can't afford to tie up for at least 6 months to a year.
I like your thinking Meatball,thanks for sharing
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Exactly personally I re-invest about 20% of what I mine into new hardware. . . seems to keep my income increasing so far.
Will there be such a thing as new ASIC miners? Will people who have never mined before want to invest money in ASIC? When GPU mining was profitable, anyone could do it, people got interested and upgraded. I think the advent of ASIC makes it a niche sport now.
Why??
Its gonne be even easier dude!!!!!!!!!!!!! No high end PC or vid cards to buy & maintain.No issues with vid drivers,OC'in,drawing too much current from your PSU OR your outlet.
ANYONE can buy one & hook up a USB cable,DL the miner software,join a pool & boom your mining on an old P.O.S. PC..............
Hell,my mom is 72 years old & she could do it
Well, being late to the scene, I'm considering buying a little sc unit from butterfly labs but I have my concerns about profitability (in part because no deliveries have been made yet and no effect can be seen yet).
However if it is still profiltable after a few months I would buy an asic unit and start mining as a first time miner.
(I have a laptop with internal video card for the moment, i even tried cpu mining a few months ago hehe..)
Never too late to start mining.Just get what you can afford & reinvest the mined BTC in another device & so on.Eventually you will get to a more profitable point.
Thats my thinking for my situation,but,don't put in what you can't afford to tie up for at least 6 months to a year.
I like your thinking Meatball,thanks for sharing
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