Topic: Difficulty drop - page 3. (Read 6378 times)

So I'll be making 1/20th of what I would be making today, on a per GH/s basis. But I've increased my GH/s 60x, so I'm still coming out 3x ahead.  

Think on this a bit...BFL has already said that they have enough orders to bring the network up about 10x from it's current 20 TH to about 200 TH, which will cut your profitability to 1/10th of where it is today.  Then you factor in the drop in the reward from 50 to 25 BTC in the near future, and that halves your profitability even further.  So, that's about cut of about 1/20th of what you are making today.

Why??

Its gonne be even easier dude!!!!!!!!!!!!! No high end PC or vid cards to buy & maintain.No issues with vid drivers,OC'in,drawing too much current from your PSU OR your outlet.

ANYONE can buy one & hook up a USB cable,DL the miner software,join a pool & boom your mining on an old P.O.S. PC..............

Hell,my mom is 72 years old & she could do it 

Agreed.  Its interesting to see the people who are buying 2 or 3 of these devices think they are gonna make millions.. they aren't thinking about the difficulty increase

Ahh,didn't see that point of view........I'm an American & I only see things from my side the world 

This is true, however, I anticipate that after ASIC's are about and hashing publicly, the difficulty will rise so high that owning a Jalepeno will be like using a X750 or X770 ATi card.

Difficulty will adjust and we'll all be back where we started ... except our pockets will have emptied themselves into the ASIC manufacturer's pockets. Certainly not a criticism of the manufacturers - just a simple fact that's how it works.

This is true, however, I anticipate that after ASIC's are about and hashing publicly, the difficulty will rise so high that owning a Jalepeno will be like using a X750 or X770 ATi card.

Also keep in mind that it is relatively easy to get a graphics card in much of the world, but acquire a system ASIC is very different, especially if you do not live in USA.

You are forced to buy from abroad, adding paperwork, waiting times and tariffs (very big in some cases).

In addition, BFL, BTCFPGA and Avalon (I think also is based in USA but produced in China) were U.S. companies and these devices are classified under the "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security export control", so they can simply refuse sale by your country of origin.

Although jalapenos and single SC look cheap, with the rise of difficulty, maybe not be more efficient than the same investment in GPU today.

Edit:
13 years old gamers can't mining any more.

This is true, however, I anticipate that after ASIC's are about and hashing publicly, the difficulty will rise so high that owning a Jalepeno will be like using a X750 or X770 ATi card.

In addition, BFL, BTCFPGA and Avalon (I think also is based in USA but produced in China) were U.S. companies and these devices are classified under the "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security export control", so they can simply refuse sale by your country of origin.

yes

Why??

Its gonne be even easier dude!!!!!!!!!!!!! No high end PC or vid cards to buy & maintain.No issues with vid drivers,OC'in,drawing too much current from your PSU OR your outlet.

ANYONE can buy one & hook up a USB cable,DL the miner software,join a pool & boom your mining on an old P.O.S. PC..............

Hell,my mom is 72 years old & she could do it 

Why??

Its gonne be even easier dude!!!!!!!!!!!!! No high end PC or vid cards to buy & maintain.No issues with vid drivers,OC'in,drawing too much current from your PSU OR your outlet.

ANYONE can buy one & hook up a USB cable,DL the miner software,join a pool & boom your mining on an old P.O.S. PC..............

Hell,my mom is 72 years old & she could do it 

Will there be such a thing as new ASIC miners?  Will people who have never mined before want to invest money in ASIC?  When GPU mining was profitable, anyone could do it, people got interested and upgraded.  I think the advent of ASIC makes it a niche sport now.

Is it 100% that higher difficulty = higher $ price? I agree that higher price = higher difficulty!

At present prices, pre reward-halving, I make ~$4.18/day. After reward halving, I will make ~$1.37/day with just my GPUs. The price would have to dip under $10/coin after the reward halving and stay there in order for me to lose money. As others have stated, GPU mining does keep a room warm. It also helps provide a steady drone/hum so I can sleep at night.

I also have plenty of FPGA and I'll keep those going for quite some time, too.

Like molecular, I have suspicions that the block-reward halving seems to have not been priced in for most of the people purchasing ASIC at this point. They would have been better served purchasing coin, letting ASIC mature, letting the block reward halving kick in, then selling coin to buy stable and reduced-price ASIC miners.

I think the first wave ASIC miners are going to get screwed as the price spikes cause of exponential difficulty increases, then falls as the older miners start collecting on our mine-and-hold strategy by selling our piled coin. I'm pretty sure the global fiat economic atmosphere post-election is going to be unfavorable to everyone, and the ASIC manufacturers are going to be lowering prices no matter what to compensate for this. With a low price/difficulty ratio, it might be like the August 2011 GPU scramble, where Europeans and Californians sold their GPUs in masses. Only this time it'll be all the ASIC miners trying to compete for lower prices with the companies that originally sold them the devices.

Just a guess, I obviously could be wrong, but this is my assessment from the GPU craziness of last spring/summer.

Difficulty is not going to drop at all.  We've seen in the past that most miners keep mining even after it's no longer profitable in the hopes it's just a glitch.  Add in the fact that on ASIC minirig coming online will more than make up for 300 5GH/s GPU miners going offline, we're not going to see anything drop.