Difficulty going down - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

cr1776

legendary

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Quote from: im0rtel on November 21, 2014, 04:33:04 AM

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Nothing. It has happened before. And in all likelihood this is just a poor estimate since the last retargeting.

raid_n

sr. member

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Quote from: raskul on November 21, 2014, 07:51:13 AM

i bet to differ. a difficulty drop will entice more miners to switch on redundant rigs, putting more BTC into the market, thus, having effect on price.

A difficulty drop means miners were already shut off to begin with. The only way more bitcoin come into the market than expected is if the hashrate increases again (as the difficulty re-target will lag behind)
(you are assuming the difficulty adjustment overshoots but it may be accurate enough that no new miners enter)

Quote from: raskul on November 21, 2014, 07:51:13 AM

BTC price is largely commanded by market demand, and with lower difficulty, market demand to purchase BTC goes down - as does price.

I would not subscribe to that generalization.
When mining profitability goes up a lot demand to purchase BTC should go down. Difficulty can drop and yet still mining may remain unprofitable enough for demand to be mostly unaffected.
[edit] just to be clear, that is one factor in a complex system. When mining profitability goes up it will most likely be to external factors that also strongly influence demand

1Referee

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Even if the difficulty indeed does decrease, it will be for very short time. It would be a welcome change, though.

People will just fire up their miners and we end up with again a raising difficulty.

raskul

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Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on November 21, 2014, 07:46:11 AM

Quote from: im0rtel on November 21, 2014, 04:33:04 AM

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Just barely 2 days into this retarget and you trust the numbers? Those numbers are based on averages and as we move through the blocks, that average gets more accurate. Being ~2 days in means we are only 300 blocks of the 2016 block period. Give it some time to average out.

The difficulty may drop at any time, and becomes more likely to happen, the longer/deeper this bear market goes. Difficulty has no bearing on price, so nothing will happen except maybe inefficient miners who want Bitcoins will start buying instead of mining.

i bet to differ. a difficulty drop will entice more miners to switch on redundant rigs, putting more BTC into the market, thus, having effect on price.
BTC price is largely commanded by market demand, and with lower difficulty, market demand to purchase BTC goes down - as does price.

difficulty has many unseen influences on price, it is ignorant to think otherwise.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: im0rtel on November 21, 2014, 04:33:04 AM

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Just barely 2 days into this retarget and you trust the numbers? Those numbers are based on averages and as we move through the blocks, that average gets more accurate. Being ~2 days in means we are only 300 blocks of the 2016 block period. Give it some time to average out.

The difficulty may drop at any time, and becomes more likely to happen, the longer/deeper this bear market goes. Difficulty has no bearing on price, so nothing will happen except maybe inefficient miners who want Bitcoins will start buying instead of mining.

raskul

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: devphp on November 21, 2014, 04:58:51 AM

Quote from: im0rtel on November 21, 2014, 04:42:44 AM

Quote from: raskul on November 21, 2014, 04:38:33 AM

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

a bear trap caused by hardware manufacturers? probably.

devphp

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Quote from: im0rtel on November 21, 2014, 04:42:44 AM

Quote from: raskul on November 21, 2014, 04:38:33 AM

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

It's just another indication of the bear market, which started at the beginning of 2014 and in all likelihood will go on for another 11-12 months.

raskul

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: im0rtel on November 21, 2014, 04:42:44 AM

Quote from: raskul on November 21, 2014, 04:38:33 AM

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

i earn slightly more BTC next round than I did last. i'd have thought that would be the obvious outcome.

im0rtel

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Merit: 252

Quote from: raskul on November 21, 2014, 04:38:33 AM

it won't happen.

hypoteticaly speaking ... what if it does happen ?

redsn0w

legendary

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#Free market

Quote from: im0rtel on November 21, 2014, 04:33:04 AM

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Nothing , only : some people have turn off their mining hardware because the price of bitcoin has dropped.

raskul

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Activity: 434

Merit: 250

it won't happen. there are batches of miners shipping out this week. I'd reckon we'll see ~5% increase next turn.

im0rtel

sr. member

Activity: 351

Merit: 252

take a look at this guys :

Bitcoin Difficulty:    40,300,030,328
Estimated Next Difficulty:    39,867,730,520 (-1.07%)
Adjust time:    After 1682 Blocks, About 11.8 days

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

what could this mean for the future of bitcoin ?

Topic: Difficulty going down - page 4. (Read 5657 times)