if difficulty keeps growing slowly, there is a chance to get Roi even for small miners.
maybe the top 5 companies had been reading these threads and decided to slow growth down. would be nice to see 1-5% for 10 jumps in a row.
Topic: Difficulty slowdown: Is this turning into a long-term trend? [Discussion Thread] - page 2. (Read 4194 times)
October 27, 2014, 07:38:47 PM
maybe the top 5 companies had been reading these threads and decided to slow growth down. would be nice to see 1-5% for 10 jumps in a row.
October 27, 2014, 01:22:21 AM
if difficulty keeps growig slowly, there is a chance to get Roi even for small miners.
October 27, 2014, 12:42:09 AM
Even at the new, "slow" rate, difficulty is growing over 100%/year. ROI declines accordingly.
well we don't know the new rate. we had .98 % we had 2.81%
right now we have 1.65% for bitcoinwisdom and .25% for bitcoincharts.
so at 2.81% diff in a year diff jumps from 35985 to 69980 that is 94.4 % which is how you most likely got your 100% number.
but at .98% diff in a year the diff jumps from 35985 to 45475 that is 26.3 % which would be amazingly low.
The numbers are very simple the slower and lower network growth is at the 350 usd btc price the better it is for the big builders that are mining.
realistically I find .98% a jump for 26.3 % in 1 year hard to believe in. Times are very interesting right now.
also zen-gaw miners are attempting to attack btc with a new coin so if btc drops to 200-250 I could see the network shrink.
October 26, 2014, 04:06:26 PM
Even at the new, "slow" rate, difficulty is growing over 100%/year. ROI declines accordingly.
October 23, 2014, 09:02:25 PM
yep and all the big boys need to do is stand pat and do their best to limit network growth under 3%.
I think you're trying to talk them into something that's good for you, but bad for them.
not really as I do not mine much any more I buy coins.
today coins dropped to about 350.
they (the big 5 or big 6 asic builders) take on big risks by large build outs. build a 20mw farm running 30ph in 45 days like bitfury did in august.
then have coins drop to 200 usd. big risk.
slowly switch out your older gear at .8 or 1 watt with .6 or less newer gear. Then sell the older gear to miners call it a c-1 or a s-4 instead of s-3. This repackaging is being done right now by bitmaintech overcharge just a little so it slows the pace and let that pay for the newer build. win for the builders at almost no risk.
BTW either way is bad for the home miner.
There is No need for fast expansion for the builders. 2 exceptions would be finding a .1 watt a gh method or big rise in btc price.
October 23, 2014, 05:05:28 PM
yep and all the big boys need to do is stand pat and do their best to limit network growth under 3%.
I think you're trying to talk them into something that's good for you, but bad for them.
Quote
Oh they can replace a 1 watt miner with a .8 watt miner then a .6 watt miner but they are building there own so they do not need to sell much just a little bit at a time.
Why would they replace a miner that's profitable (on a sunk-cost basis, which is the proper criterion to use) with a new one? If you've already paid for it, the logical thing to do is to keep it running until its revenues drop below electricity and hosting costs. Buying new hardware makes sense if you expect to recoup your costs, which are much lower if you produce your own miners and already have your mask set. If anything, if they bought new hardware, they would be running it in parallel with their old hardware, unless they ran out of space / power in their data center.
As for selling, I don't think we're ever going back to a situation where miners hoard a substantial portion of their mined bitcoins. Bitcoin mining is a fiat game, and the rational thing to do is to sell it all.
October 23, 2014, 04:47:04 PM
If you are mining now and are still making more in btc than you are spending in electricity you are dancing in the streets. The lifetime of your miners just got increased, as did your profit. No one realistically bought miners expecting less than 5% increases when the did the calculations. The longer it stays subdued the more gravy gets poured on the current miners.
yep and all the big boys need to do is stand pat and do their best to limit network growth under 3%.
Just do some 1% 2% 3% growth in jumps on bitcoinwisdom's calculator's and mining look good. So basically the big boys so not need to expand much.
Oh they can replace a 1 watt miner with a .8 watt miner then a .6 watt miner but they are building there own so they do not need to sell much just a little bit at a time.
Your last sentence isn't a real life scenario. Developing increasingly more efficient miners isn't "a little bit at a time" endeavor. To develop more efficient miners is a massive outlay of cash. And to recoup that investment, they would need to produce a lot of machines.
And really, does everyone think that these companies are happy to keep equilibrium in the mining game? These companies are each out to grow their share of the network and kill everyone else. We're in a lull, that's it. None of the big companies have put significant amounts of PHs on the network for 45 days. But this will change soon. Guaranteed.
October 23, 2014, 04:37:30 PM
You can't extrapolate what Bitfury is doing with their ASIC designs to any other manufacturer. They work on cheaper process nodes (larger die sizes) than other companies but their ASIC design is fully custom and much more efficient because of that. They're so far ahead of everyone else, it's scary. And they don't sell retail to home miners.
They worked with cheaper process nodes. They are working on their 28nm chip right now.
28nm is the cheaper process node if everyone else is moving to 16nm and less.
October 21, 2014, 09:04:27 PM
To be clear you believe in diff decreases of 3-5%? or increases under 5% say 3 to 5
My thoughts are as long as price is in the 300 to 425 usd a coin range we will continue to see very small diff increases.
I also think that unless an asic builder comes up with a really big power improvement say a drop from the .6-.8 watt per watt machine to a .1-.2 watt machine diff will stay the same range of 5 to 7 percent .
you also need to understand most mining is by the big builders.
ASICMINER
BFL
BITFURY
BITMAINTECH
KNC
yeah bfl has a lot of gear mining
as do the others above.
You want to add in
DRAGON MINERS 1.5th in chinese data centers
Spondollies 10, 20 ,30, 35 hosted here and there.
I think most of us home miners are lucky to add up to 50ph world wide more likely 30ph in gear.
So the big builder is making money right now and really can only f up by building up his mining ops too quickly.
My thoughts are as long as price is in the 300 to 425 usd a coin range we will continue to see very small diff increases.
I also think that unless an asic builder comes up with a really big power improvement say a drop from the .6-.8 watt per watt machine to a .1-.2 watt machine diff will stay the same range of 5 to 7 percent .
you also need to understand most mining is by the big builders.
ASICMINER
BFL
BITFURY
BITMAINTECH
KNC
yeah bfl has a lot of gear mining
as do the others above.
You want to add in
DRAGON MINERS 1.5th in chinese data centers
Spondollies 10, 20 ,30, 35 hosted here and there.
I think most of us home miners are lucky to add up to 50ph world wide more likely 30ph in gear.
So the big builder is making money right now and really can only f up by building up his mining ops too quickly.
Like PC's are now i remember way back when how much it cost for one stick of 1 MB memory that was lot of memory to have then if you had a 120 MB not GB hard drive you were top dog those were the days .
I don't doubt they don't all ready have the hard ware they just won't sell it for the above reasons in this post not what i said .
October 21, 2014, 08:49:35 PM
Sady its not gonna stop any time soon unless the hard ware slows downs in how fast its made and what it can do .
I'm seeing more and more every day no more bitcoin home mining unless its scrypt or alt coins mining till that's start rollin then the big guys will fuck us again or alt coins will become the home miming way which i have np with . .
right now alt con or script mining its not to bad I'm doing pretty good but if i do just Bitcoins forget it.it is gone for the home miner unless you have 23 PH In your home .23 PH is a example of my point to make a profit at home doingBTC mining.
i really enjoy doing it but don't want to waste my time on paying either when i have better things to use that money on .
I'm seeing more and more every day no more bitcoin home mining unless its scrypt or alt coins mining till that's start rollin then the big guys will fuck us again or alt coins will become the home miming way which i have np with . .
right now alt con or script mining its not to bad I'm doing pretty good but if i do just Bitcoins forget it.it is gone for the home miner unless you have 23 PH In your home .23 PH is a example of my point to make a profit at home doingBTC mining.
i really enjoy doing it but don't want to waste my time on paying either when i have better things to use that money on .
October 21, 2014, 07:52:32 PM
If you are mining now and are still making more in btc than you are spending in electricity you are dancing in the streets. The lifetime of your miners just got increased, as did your profit. No one realistically bought miners expecting less than 5% increases when the did the calculations. The longer it stays subdued the more gravy gets poured on the current miners.
yep and all the big boys need to do is stand pat and do their best to limit network growth under 3%.
Just do some 1% 2% 3% growth in jumps on bitcoinwisdom's calculator's and mining look good. So basically the big boys so not need to expand much.
Oh they can replace a 1 watt miner with a .8 watt miner then a .6 watt miner but they are building there own so they do not need to sell much just a little bit at a time.
October 21, 2014, 06:02:47 PM
If you are mining now and are still making more in btc than you are spending in electricity you are dancing in the streets. The lifetime of your miners just got increased, as did your profit. No one realistically bought miners expecting less than 5% increases when the did the calculations. The longer it stays subdued the more gravy gets poured on the current miners.
October 21, 2014, 01:12:49 PM
16nm is coming, no more difficulty slowdown..
16nm does not do the trick bitfury and the like have no reason to produce it.
2 caveats if
16nm allows .1watts a gh
if btc price jumps.
right now we are in an equilibrium of btc price and power cost. A large builder with a big farm such as bitmaintech has no use for more hashing.
If they truly have a 20mw setup and they get .6watts a gh . their best interest is 0 btc change and 0 diff jumps do the math.
20mw can do close to 30ph if they get .6watts by now they paid the gear off if it was built back in aug.
so 20mw at 8 cents a kwatt is 1600 usd a day. 30 ph earns 460 coins a day.
460 coins is more then 160,000 usd so 160000 usd income for 1600 power cost.
even if they make a 16nm and they drop power 3 fold to 6 fold. they only need to pull the power hungry gear offline. they don't need to grow much at all. due to the 380 usd price and 2% diff numbers.
This is a new btc world and smart large companies don't need to expand much at all if they have a proper data center setup.
October 20, 2014, 10:03:53 PM
16nm is coming, no more difficulty slowdown..
October 20, 2014, 09:49:13 PM
You can't extrapolate what Bitfury is doing with their ASIC designs to any other manufacturer. They work on cheaper process nodes (larger die sizes) than other companies but their ASIC design is fully custom and much more efficient because of that. They're so far ahead of everyone else, it's scary. And they don't sell retail to home miners.
They worked with cheaper process nodes. They are working on their 28nm chip right now.
October 20, 2014, 07:39:37 PM
IMHO, the pipeline for new ultramodern ASICs is thin. That is why capacity increases have slowed. Those who have the chips will make more selling them to home miners than mining themselves if difficulty increases resume their 10% bumps. The recent drop in BTC is making the manufacturers think twice about new investment. So it is possible the days of big increases are behind us until someone comes up with breakthrough technology (quantum computer?)
Oh don't worry about ever getting to buy the next gen ASICs, lol. Bitfury is working on their 28nm .3w/GHs chips. When they're ready, watch out! Because the difficulty will explode once again. And no, they won't be selling them to home miners either. They already have their 55nm MK2 chip running at .62w/GHs...
http://www.bitfury.org/products
Never know 28nm can be that efficient, so that means 16nm is going to double the efficiency..
You can't extrapolate what Bitfury is doing with their ASIC designs to any other manufacturer. They work on cheaper process nodes (larger die sizes) than other companies but their ASIC design is fully custom and much more efficient because of that. They're so far ahead of everyone else, it's scary. And they don't sell retail to home miners.
October 20, 2014, 09:05:03 AM
IMHO, the pipeline for new ultramodern ASICs is thin. That is why capacity increases have slowed. Those who have the chips will make more selling them to home miners than mining themselves if difficulty increases resume their 10% bumps. The recent drop in BTC is making the manufacturers think twice about new investment. So it is possible the days of big increases are behind us until someone comes up with breakthrough technology (quantum computer?)
Oh don't worry about ever getting to buy the next gen ASICs, lol. Bitfury is working on their 28nm .3w/GHs chips. When they're ready, watch out! Because the difficulty will explode once again. And no, they won't be selling them to home miners either. They already have their 55nm MK2 chip running at .62w/GHs...
http://www.bitfury.org/products
Never know 28nm can be that efficient, so that means 16nm is going to double the efficiency..
October 20, 2014, 03:02:58 AM
IMHO, the pipeline for new ultramodern ASICs is thin. That is why capacity increases have slowed. Those who have the chips will make more selling them to home miners than mining themselves if difficulty increases resume their 10% bumps. The recent drop in BTC is making the manufacturers think twice about new investment. So it is possible the days of big increases are behind us until someone comes up with breakthrough technology (quantum computer?)
Oh don't worry about ever getting to buy the next gen ASICs, lol. Bitfury is working on their 28nm .3w/GHs chips. When they're ready, watch out! Because the difficulty will explode once again. And no, they won't be selling them to home miners either. They already have their 55nm MK2 chip running at .62w/GHs...
http://www.bitfury.org/products
October 19, 2014, 11:09:32 PM
IMHO, the pipeline for new ultramodern ASICs is thin. That is why capacity increases have slowed. Those who have the chips will make more selling them to home miners than mining themselves if difficulty increases resume their 10% bumps. The recent drop in BTC is making the manufacturers think twice about new investment. So it is possible the days of big increases are behind us until someone comes up with breakthrough technology (quantum computer?)
October 19, 2014, 07:26:31 AM
I am mining too, just for hoping that price will be back on in normal profitable range again.
Here's hoping for $1100 BTC for Thanksgiving again this year!
I want $11000 so we can have back last year's action.
well it went from about 75 usd in sept 2013 after silk road to 1152 around thanksgiving 2013 or about 15.36x
if it goes from 278 usd in oct 2014 15x to 4270 usd by Hanukkah Dec 16th It will be a Merry Christmas for us all.
Pardon me for using religious holidays but the dates fit better then Thanksgiving since the low was in Oct this year not Sept.
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