At some point in the near future (2-3 months) the dominant machines will be 2-3Thash but the total number of those machines will be lower than the total number of ASIC blades, USB miners, and random BFL miners that have not burst into flames.
What is the speculation on difficulty? In two months will it be a battle of the "Haves" and "Have not’s" with regard to Thash machines? Will this be the end of the "bedroom" miner?
I am just interested in some banter about where you think the diff is going with TerraminerIV and Hash fast coming online and do you think their supply of machines will be enough to disrupt the diff for the small time miner?
The bedroom miner is dead. Not literally I hope, but yes, 2014 will see the beginning of industrial-scale mining and the end of home mining.
Unless the btc price falls back to $50 of course and then god knows what will happen
I don't think so, millions of miners with free electricity will be able to mine much more efficiently than a mining farm. That is the reason eventually mining companies will not make their own farm, since that cost too much electricity and generate too much heat, and the worst is that those equipments will quickly become a burden due to rising difficulty
How important electricity costs are depends on the bitcoin price, which is an unknown. As for generating too much heat, the new Gen3 mining equipment due out in Spring from ASICMINER is extremely energy efficient using liquid immersive cooling. They can pack tonnes of chips into a very small space and the power consumption is <0.2W per G.
If you can think you can compete in your bedroom or wherever you get "free" electricity, good for you. But industrial scale mining will be a reality by mid-2014.