Could we raise money, kickstarter or indiegogo, then design and fab the ASIC chip? Something using older tech?
Observing the freaking-out of miners driven by under-supply of ASIC mining rig (peaking in lucky lottery winners selling their $1.5k device for $20k), and based on the fact that ASICMINER developed their chips with NRE of less than $200k, one might conclude that developing ones own Bitcoin ASIC is the most obvious next step.
At least I concluded recently, but after discussing with some experienced insiders, it only supposedly sounds easy. The two core issues are
Time to MarketThere is an absolute minimum development time of ~6 months to be considered. That is, no matter which expertise you hire and how hard you try to negotiate with fabs - starting our mining ASIC today we would have chips in our hands for Christmas. Quite some time for numerous 'what ifs' and surprises in the Bitcoin world.
Expertise and LuckHaving only two successful ASIC manufacturers out of four taking the challenge indicates that designing a mining chip is far from being trivial. There are rants over BFL all over the forum for being incompetent idiots failing to provide what they promised long ago. Being more objective, there is no doubt they had the highest skilled experts available money can buy (and they had tons of money) - and yet they failed to meet expectations. That's because luck is an immanent component with the development of such uncommon ASICs. Those engineers in this forum believing to work error free, go cast the first stone.
tl;dr: starting a new mining ASIC from scratch is already too late and overall maybe not the best idea.
Avalon initially planned to develop only the chips and let others do the productizing. Taking the opportunity to monetize the current shortage of mining rig supply to dictate prices and recover NRE fast is a legitimate approach. But as soon as a second manufacturer enters the competition, they will gradually be forced to concentrate on their core business - and that's where we should build on top of. There are only two manufacturers of CPUs for desktop PCs worldwide, that's enough for everybody to have a computer at home, as it is enough to keep up a healthy competition with continuous technologal advances.
I expect this scenario to be reached in Bitcoin world not later than by the end of this year. Avalon might still have one or two successful batches to sell, but then things will go to normal again. That is, to what we had at the beginning with CPUs/GPUs: whoever likes to support the Bitcoin network buys and attaches rig right away. No pre-order limbo and no pre-sale lotteries.
At least thats the plan