Topic: Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000 - page 2. (Read 17317 times)

what we concern is the concept of decentralization .there is no doubt that the high price will attract more investment

Huh. If that's the case, $1,000,000 is a definite possibility. And I always thought that $100,000 was the most likely ceiling.

that'd be real or you'd be delving into derivatives and the over $1quadrillion world.

You're right, I was thinking fiat, not wealth. I wonder how much of that $241T is real, and not unbacked debt?

good work, but I think gold is worth close to $8 trillion. World wealth is more like $250 trillion (from memory).

edit: last Oct http://www.cnbc.com/id/101105809 puts it at $241T

So, I ran some finance calculations, and:

If bitcoin value goes to $10,000 and stays there forever, but USD keeps inflating at 3% every year, Bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000 in 150 years (but $1mil will only buy what $10k buys today)

If Bitcoin value goes up and stays at $10,000, but USD keeps inflating at the rate it has over the last few years, bitcoin will be worth $1mil in just 67 years.

Keep in mind that I picked the $10,000 figure as a conservative estimate of BTC capturing only 0.5% of the world's cash amount.

Now let's say inflation is at a slightly higher rate than the target, at 4% a year, which is I think reasonable with the increased spending, debt obligations, and possibly continuing troubles in the global economy (it's just 1% higher than the Fed's 3% target), and Bitcoin grows at an average rate of a normal stock at 10% a year. Meaning instead of growing to $10,000 (or 0.5% of use) and staying there, it actually continues to grow, with 10% more people adopting it every year. In this case, Bitcoin will be worth $1mil in 56 years, at which point it will be worth about $100,000 in today's dollars, having a market cap of about $1.7 trillion dollars. I don't know what percentage of the total world wealth that will be, since we don't know how much the world economy will expand by then.

If inflation is the same 4%, but bitcoin grows at the same average rate it has over the last few years, about 2x to 3x, or, say, 250%, it will reach $1mil in just 5.9 years, where its worth will be $810,000 per coin. HOWEVER, if that happens, it will have a market cap of about $11 trillion dollars, which tells me that it's pretty much not possible for bitcoin to consistently double or triple every year for the next 6 years. (Sorry latecomers, you may still have a massive return, but there are not many of those left)

So, where about is a reasonable number? No one knows, especially since bitcoins growth is expected to be rapid over the next few years, then level off to something more sustainable years from now, and dollars will continue to decline. While I can set up such a model, the extra detail provided by the variables will not counter the fact that all these numbers are coming out of my ass. But, if we wanted to rough it, and I know you guys want at least some estimates after reading all this, then:

Using 3.5% inflation, and 40% annual bitcoin growth (very reasonable, considering Small Cap stocks give 16%, and we're talking global adoption for currency, transactions, and investments here), gives us a $1million Bitcoin in 21 years, with bitcoin market cap of $8 trillion dollars, which right now is maybe half of all the world's wealth, but 20 years from now may be a fairly small (reasonably believable) part of it.

So there you have it folks. About 20 years for bitcoin to hit $1,000,000, if bitcoin continues being adopted and doesn't fail or get replaced along the way (with an error rate of plus or minus 10 years). For those wondering if you will ever see it in your lifetime, you have your answer.

Better question is will btc ever buy 1000 oz of gold.

Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars only if it will be the worldwide currency, and I don't think that it will happen.

People who step in early will make a lot of money.
If after a concerted effort, the price of BTC drops, YOU will be blamed for making people lose money.

It IS a necessity, if btc adopts mainstream adoption, then it is a necessity.

Better to say: more free.

Not sure if it will.
But, I hope so. And We all will be a new Billioner 

Exactly, we are dealing with total dinosaurs in here, they don't know where shit is going to hit them from once Bitcoin power is realized by the masses.

yeah, let's draft an ultimatum to the CEO of the sovereign currency system.

Reading these posts and observing the views of the traditional media I notice a couple of things.

1 The traditional media have no clue about the potential for BTC to supplant the sovereign currency system and talk about BRICS currencies and SDRs are a replacement for the current system.

2 Actually I think that we must not be passive, that if we as a global BTC community want 1BTC=$1M within say 12 months from now then yes it is possible - as long as we act in concert and not individually.

We as a global community of x millions? have tremendous power if we act together, and if we can engage with the present failing system on an equal basis and not as irrelevant upstarts.

If we can somehow organize behind an initiative with a goal of 1BTC = $1M by September 2015 we can achieve it - we have the spirit of the time on our side and the power of the crowd againt failing oligopolies who have no idea how to move forward except with more of the same.

Responses?

We will hit 1 million dollars for sure but we will have to wait twenty years or more.

No 1, but 10 million per coin in year 2114 

Definitely not right now. that won't be for possibly an entire generation unless some major catastrophe happens to significantly accelerate things. It took a generation of people who grew up on the internet to expect everything they do to be on the internet. It will likewise take a generation of people growing up with Bitcoin to expect every service they deal with to accept it.

This....

With everything becoming the Internet, the most superior form of money in this electronic environment will win. If Bitcoin is the chosen one, anything is possible.

Bitcoin is already worth MUCH more than 1,000,000 Zimbabwe dollars. Who knows. Same thing could happen to the USD.