Topic: Do you really believe that Bitcoin will hit 1,000,000 - page 10. (Read 17317 times)

 

........ there is no spoon .......

 

Instead of the price of bitcoin, think of the value beneath that a bitcoin represents. Through an algorithm and one of bitcoins many up and coming add-on's a single satoshi could represent a mansion on the coast while another single satoshi represents a penny in your pocket.

The bitcoin network, all the contracts, all the titles and deeds, the representations will weave themselves into everyone's everyday lives and therefore, eventually all of the wealth of the world would at one time or another be represented by transactions in the blockchain.

The question is, do you have bitcoin?

It will work well for those who have debt or use debt to finance their purchase on bitcoin.

wow, then you are a millionär and you can buy a bread for 30.000 USD each 

Nothing. Even in the most optimistic case of bitcoin taking over, you can not compute the value. You can not predict how large part of the value each actor has produced, he wants to have in reserve, in the form of value compressed into bitcoins.

You know, given the fact that his compressed value tokens are safe for plunder, an actor might want to have much more than now in reserve, consequently the value of all bitcoins might be larger than the current value of all fiat money.

What does GDP have to do with market cap?

There is 30 something trillion dollars in offshore bank accounts. How much in physical gold and silver? How about paper gold and silver? USD? EURO? 1m/btc would be easy if we reach universal adoption. Of course, you'll start to measure inflation (or deflation) by a basket of good purchased with btc... and measuring btcs value in fiat currency will be idiotic.

I'm in the $1,000,000 camp. But I'm not unrealistic. It could take many, many years -- decades -- to get there. I'm patient.

I'm thinking that most who have been involved in the BTC space for more than a year would not consider 5k-10k/coin far fetched.

Don't think anyone really expecting 1M per coin. Even 5-10k per coin sound far fetch.

Here's an idea, bear with me:

This wikipedia article claims that the world GDP is ~85 trillion as of 2012: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product

Assuming that number is accurate - what if there's only 2.1 million coins available instead of 21 million? E.g. because most people will hold for very long periods of time, it's entirely possible that most of the value is concentrated in the number of coins being used for economic activity. Let's say only 10% of coins are "in play". Divide those 2.1 million by 1 billion people (smartphone users would be a good example) that have a need to use BTC for economic activity, and you have something like each person on average gets .0128 BTC. If BTC are 1 MM USD, then each person on average is responsible for 12,800 dollars of economic activity in BTC, with a market cap of 12.8 trillion USD. (Compared to the previous numbers 2.1 million coins available reduces this by a factor of 10x and the updated GDP halves it - with your numbers it's more like each person needs to
be responsible for 250K of economic activity in BTC).

This implies that the long term holders of bitcoin - people in the top 1% of ownership - will have a heavy incentive to cash out REALLY slowly (slow enough to maintain a nash equilibrium between new USDs going into BTC and their BTC cashing out to USD) - but they may not be able to coordinate well enough to maintain an equilibrium, causing a crash as the market gets flooded with BTC the first time someone cashes out hard and supply increases.

I think BTC can easily hit 1 million USD assuming it becomes 'the paypal of smartphones', and as long as finance + tech sector maintains interest in it - a broad base of users who small amounts of value, and a large group of whales in semi-collusion or at least who recognize their own self interest and won't crash the system for a while. The question is, can it stay at 1 MM USD for even more than a single femtosecond, and who's going to be making money off of the short trades and the exchange vig?



The difference between

if so I will try not to sell my bitcoin now 

Time will tell. I Want to Believe

Regardless, there is no rule that says each individual needs to hold at least one bitcoin, there are plenty of people today that have less then one bitcoin

US peso is already happening. As soon as China abandon it, it will be over.

We are always talking in todays purchasing power. Always.

Not rediculous if hyper-inflation occurs...viva le US peso?

maybe not 1 Mio but 10.000 or 40.000 , yeah possible. take a look at the stock from warren buffet  


but: you will not hold your bitcoin until its worth 1 mio , thats the bigger problem 

Bitcoin is not digital dollars. It's digital gold that can be traded for anything else at will, plus a number of other benefits. It's better than gold and fiat combined, and comes with a network for moving it around.

I think $1 million is conceivable, for sure. But I'm not convinced that Metcalfe's Law is correct, and I think the growth rate will confound a lot of the bulls -- maybe even cause many to lose hope on the long road there.