Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? - page 11.

peter0425

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Quote from: Betwrong on December 29, 2020, 05:17:02 AM

but this is already reflected in the odds, you have to risk $100 in order to potentially win $10, when betting on a strong team.

This is some others don't understand, they think betting on the strong team always gives them a win, but if we consider the odds, like what in your illustration, you need to win 10 times betting on a favorite in order for your $100 to win the exact amount, which is not easy based on probability.

But it's it is enough to at least having High chance in Strong team than betting in lower,Yeah the Winning maybe so much higher but you can lose your 100$ in a single match ,while in Strong team 10% win is almost there ,but of course not 100% assured.
But for the risk taker ,yeah they tend to bet in the lower team Just to have a change doubling their money instantly.

maydna

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Quote from: South Park on December 30, 2020, 03:35:41 PM

Quote from: maydna on December 27, 2020, 09:51:44 PM

~snip~

But that is the thing for the most part bookmakers never lose bets, the goal of a bookie is to win regardless of the outcome of the game and they do this by manipulating the odds in order to balance their books, so if one side is getting too much bets for their liking they can switch the line to make that side of that bet less attractive while making the other more attractive to incentive payers to bet on the other outcome, this is why arbitraging opportunities and value bets arise and you must always keep your eyes open for them.

The bookmakers will take the biggest winning from the gamblers, even if some gamblers can win, but they don't win the biggest money. I don't know if the bookmakers are manipulating the odds or not to balance their books, but I am sure that they don't do that. Besides that, they will not show their books that contain their profits because that is their secret. If they do that, and the members know by themselves, they will not like what the bookmakers do, and the members will not use that site to place a bet.

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Quote from: Maslate on December 30, 2020, 06:11:21 PM

Quote from: nelson4lov on December 30, 2020, 04:13:15 PM

Recently, I been trying my hands on a few high odds markets rather than always patronizing those tiny odds and those events came out successful. Every now and then, these high odds events play out successfully too.

I'm happy to hear that, I hope you'll find some consistency with newly find out strategy, TBH, that one does not work for me, so I just stick with my old style to be on a fair odds like 1.90 or 1.85... not so profitable for me, but at least I have littl edge according to the result.

I don't have a problem with a tiny profit but in a consistent way of gaining your payout. High odds something unlikely to me and very risky because the chances of having payout will less compared to the low odds.

That's right, I also did not see of getting profit in the high odds but maybe that user above already prove that high odds are better than choosing low odds. The fact that you will have 50/50 chances of winning in the high odds but if you were very lucky high profit will also be yours.

Maslate

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Quote from: nelson4lov on December 30, 2020, 04:13:15 PM

Recently, I been trying my hands on a few high odds markets rather than always patronizing those tiny odds and those events came out successful. Every now and then, these high odds events play out successfully too.

I'm happy to hear that, I hope you'll find some consistency with newly find out strategy, TBH, that one does not work for me, so I just stick with my old style to be on a fair odds like 1.90 or 1.85... not so profitable for me, but at least I have littl edge according to the result.

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Quote from: acquafredda on December 30, 2020, 01:06:34 PM

Guys you cannot rely on the odds as they are engineered to let the bookies receive always their fair share of profit: that is no charity, they need to earn money and therefore if you think that the odds are made to help you, then you are super wrong.

This goes against everything I've thought about bet odds since I started gambling and placing bets. I've always thought that match odds were based on some stats or probability of the event actually happening. Although in my early gambling days ~ 3-4 years ago, I took the time to gather some 1.05 odds markets because I thought since the odds were so low that they'd definitely pan out as I expected. Unfortunately, a large majority of those markets went sore and I ended up in losses.

Recently, I been trying my hands on a few high odds markets rather than always patronizing those tiny odds and those events came out successful. Every now and then, these high odds events play out successfully too.

South Park

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Quote from: maydna on December 27, 2020, 09:51:44 PM

Quote from: South Park on December 27, 2020, 01:38:49 PM

While that is true at the same time it is not as if they are infallible, one of the things that will never chance and that allow good sport bettors to have an edge is the fact that casinos have to adjust their books in their attempts to try to earn the same amount of money from both sides of the bets, this means that a match that could otherwise be perfectly matched in terms of odds needs to be changed and that is when a smart gambler can take full advantage of the odds.

But the bookmakers have a better position than us, so that can make them have a big chance to win. If the bookmakers lose in one game, they will get another winning on the other game, and that happens many times. In the end, if the gamblers don't know how to manage their money, he will only lose it to the bookmakers and the bookmakers will take all of the gambler's money.

But that is the thing for the most part bookmakers never lose bets, the goal of a bookie is to win regardless of the outcome of the game and they do this by manipulating the odds in order to balance their books, so if one side is getting too much bets for their liking they can switch the line to make that side of that bet less attractive while making the other more attractive to incentive payers to bet on the other outcome, this is why arbitraging opportunities and value bets arise and you must always keep your eyes open for them.

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Quote from: boyptc on December 30, 2020, 01:50:23 PM

Quote from: acquafredda on December 30, 2020, 01:06:34 PM

Guys you cannot rely on the odds as they are engineered to let the bookies receive always their fair share of profit: that is no charity, they need to earn money and therefore if you think that the odds are made to help you, then you are super wrong.

It can help for some reasons like if a bettor who doesn't really bet oftenly for that sports.

He will get an idea which is the favorable side and the underdog.

This is a fact, so much so that there are companies that seek profits just by selling data to players to improve their odds and place better bets.

In gambling of chance where the win depends only on some random algorithm it would even make sense, but when you take the human factor into account... surely the odds help you to don't make the "wrong bet".

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Quote from: boyptc on December 30, 2020, 01:50:23 PM

Quote from: acquafredda on December 30, 2020, 01:06:34 PM

Guys you cannot rely on the odds as they are engineered to let the bookies receive always their fair share of profit: that is no charity, they need to earn money and therefore if you think that the odds are made to help you, then you are super wrong.

It can help for some reasons like if a bettor who doesn't really bet oftenly for that sports.

He will get an idea which is the favorable side and the underdog.

This is actually true!

When i had been just starting on playing or making bets with sportsbetting then the one thing i do consider first is to look on whose the favorite. You will eventually
spot out which one is the heavily favored and the underdog which you can presume that higher chance of winning is really on the favorite side but to check out
the odds then this is where gambler do differ in decision making neither you do see its worth for the risk or a waste of time.

Relying on it wont really be bad but always have second thoughts or checking out if underdogs is really worth to bet on.

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Quote from: acquafredda on December 30, 2020, 01:06:34 PM

Guys you cannot rely on the odds as they are engineered to let the bookies receive always their fair share of profit: that is no charity, they need to earn money and therefore if you think that the odds are made to help you, then you are super wrong.

It can help for some reasons like if a bettor who doesn't really bet oftenly for that sports.

He will get an idea which is the favorable side and the underdog.

acquafredda

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Guys you cannot rely on the odds as they are engineered to let the bookies receive always their fair share of profit: that is no charity, they need to earn money and therefore if you think that the odds are made to help you, then you are super wrong.

Betwrong

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Quote from: Betwrong on December 29, 2020, 05:17:02 AM

but this is already reflected in the odds, you have to risk $100 in order to potentially win $10, when betting on a strong team.

This is some others don't understand, they think betting on the strong team always gives them a win, but if we consider the odds, like what in your illustration, you need to win 10 times betting on a favorite in order for your $100 to win the exact amount, which is not easy based on probability.

Actually, I tried this method, betting on the strong team, and after around 20 bets I was almost always at a loss. It wasn't a big loss because most of my bets were winning ones, but within 15-20 games unexpected outcomes can happen 3-4 times, and this can be enough to beat all my winnings from successful bets combined.

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Quote from: Betwrong on December 29, 2020, 05:17:02 AM

but this is already reflected in the odds, you have to risk $100 in order to potentially win $10, when betting on a strong team.

This is some others don't understand, they think betting on the strong team always gives them a win, but if we consider the odds, like what in your illustration, you need to win 10 times betting on a favorite in order for your $100 to win the exact amount, which is not easy based on probability.

I will not let to use $100 to just want to win $10 because that will not worth to risk that big money, even if the team will have the potential to win. But to bet on the strong team will not always have a chance to win because the weak team can change the situations, especially if they can play well with all effort. So when you want to bet, just not to use too big money to win a small amount because if you lose, you will lose too big money. But most people will bet on the team which has high odds because they are sure that they can win with that team.

hahay

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Quote from: Oneandpure on December 29, 2020, 10:09:07 AM

I got not popular league give bigger odds although favorite club to win and have good standing on fixture but stake as gambling site wrong put odds which one big or small, I take this opportunity and win with bigger odds, you should stay up before match begin because when match have start you will get small odds and have scoring each team become small odds do you get.

No wonder I guess but I wonder what league and country it is from because maybe I will try to bet there. To be honest, I have seen many leagues from different countries but betting solely on the odds always makes me lose and also, betting on live matches for me personally carries a bigger risk. Things like this of course come back to each individual, because I have experienced it myself, at least the analysis for a match is still an important part for us to bet on.

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Quote from: kryptqnick on December 13, 2020, 10:54:22 AM

I've recently created a discussion about the odds of various outcomes and the gaps between the likely winner and other options, but some replies raised another questions that I believe is worthy of being discussed. When placing bets on sports, I rely heavily on the odds, especially if someone has a very high probability of winning, like here:

I placed a small bet on this match on Sportsbet.io:

But of course when the odds are close to one another (2.5, 3.1 and similar), I try to rely on the history of matches between the teams and recent wins/losses of the teams.
What do you follow when you are betting on sports: is it the odds or your knowledge and experience? Or maybe you're one of those people who bet on the favorite team or perhaps follows a gut? Do odds even matter to you? If yes, how important are they for your final decision?

The only thing the odds should do is allow for you to see if there is value to me the bet. If you are so sure of an outcome and the odds are right its a good bet "for you".

But to determine whether that team will cover you need to understand the team structure. Injuries, trends, etc. Dont rely just on odds.

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Quote from: Betwrong on December 29, 2020, 05:17:02 AM

but this is already reflected in the odds, you have to risk $100 in order to potentially win $10, when betting on a strong team.

This is some others don't understand, they think betting on the strong team always gives them a win, but if we consider the odds, like what in your illustration, you need to win 10 times betting on a favorite in order for your $100 to win the exact amount, which is not easy based on probability.

As there's always shit that may happened along the road, not always favorites will win the game.
Lots of time even it's only 1-5% losing rate still possible to happened.

Likewise, it's not good to risk huge amount of money, if you have spare time better to deal with good research to balance the situation.

You can choose handicap or over/under as the odds are far better than choosing
this low odd bets and disappoint yourself once luck ain't comes your way.

acquafredda

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Odds are specifically engineered to attract equal action on both sides of a betting line. In a perfect world, a sportsbook receives equal betting volume on both sides of a wager then, win or lose, they’ll make 5-10% on the juice (or ‘vig’).
As such, it’s integral to understand that the chief function of oddsmakers isn’t to create an accurate (and probable) picture of reality—it’s to mitigate your sportsbook’s risk. Think of contemporary oddsmakers as risk management professionals, as well as expert sports predictors.
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/betting-101/how-bookmakers-generate-odds/
The game is made so that, at the end of the day, they end up always winning Wink

Oneandpure

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I got not popular league give bigger odds although favorite club to win and have good standing on fixture but stake as gambling site wrong put odds which one big or small, I take this opportunity and win with bigger odds, you should stay up before match begin because when match have start you will get small odds and have scoring each team become small odds do you get.

Betwrong

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Quote from: fiulpro on December 26, 2020, 01:07:17 PM

Hello

I do think that you need to understand for a fact that : Even though you might or might not rely on the odds , it's always a good decision to look out for them.

-You can use mathematical calculations most of the times and get benefited heavily
-I don't particularly rely on the odds listed on the websites but I try and calculate using probability; permutations, combinations etc.. Using high school mathematical calculations for good !
-There are also very good formulas out there too you should check out even probability for games like football
- Plus I agree with the fact that we might not be that accurate but the point is we can rely on it and even if we are close to the probability it is actually very good.
Shocked

If you know such formulas maybe you can share them with us here? That would be very on topic, considering the title of this thread. I personally doubt that effective methods of calculating the probability exist. I mean, you don't need no formulas to know that a strong team is more likely to win than a weak one, but this is already reflected in the odds, you have to risk $100 in order to potentially win $10, when betting on a strong team.

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Quote from: ene1980 on December 28, 2020, 04:30:16 PM

Quote from: pawanjain on December 28, 2020, 08:57:57 AM

Sometimes luck does play it's role and the team with good odds might lose ending up losing all your bets.

Luck does play a major role in our prediction, i have seen countless upsets in the past two months alone in different sports and more so it was evident in Soccer as there were many upsets and draws and that was the case in Tennis as well, the most lopsided odds that always win is in Table Tennis which will make you think whether those matches are fixed as the heavy underdog mostly wins.

When i make a bet, odds is a major factor and the understanding of the team always helps in picking what bet to place in a match.

Luck maybe the main factor to win but added with statistics and the Mood of the player/Team on that specific day will be given a best result .
We don't know what's inside each sports person ,they can be Looking tough but the deepest part are soft that may be affected with what is happening in personal like.

Sometimes we are just questioning Why did the performance of a Expected Winner goes opposite side , but this is their Mood or their emotional condition.

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Quote from: STT on December 28, 2020, 06:52:04 PM

Quote

I have a couple of friends that like to place sport bets just by watching odds!
most of times they don't know absolutely nothing about a team or a specific league but they continue to play in this manner.

I totally believe that because of convenience, not many people want to sit down and do homework to figure out the odds or weigh up every factor properly vs the near maths for various odds offered on varying outcomes, scores etc. Often the best bet I find is not the outright winner but a side bet that the crowd are passing over and is far better value in its likelyhood to pay off then just voting your favorite team to win it.
I can easily say any firm that wants to be successful in this space or even across the whole range of crypto sites needs to make itself as simple and convenient as possible, if people can get a 1 shot click bet to go ahead with their favourite sports then they'll more likely go with it. Its totally understandable because most people are distracted and occupied by more immediate concerns in real life and the up coming game is some time away so does not receive much attention and neither do their bets so people are often wrong for being rushed in their considerations of the game its pretty clear.

And that's what the house wanted to have especially with live bets, thinking that because odds seems to lower means that the chance to win is high.

Not knowing that there are chances that the team or players will bounce back in the last few minutes of the game, it's best to have more knowledge than doing the same thing, it mostly trap you up and lead your bet to lose.

I got that point, those gamblers who are busy taking care of other things in life are much looking to this kind of setup, simply clicking what they've think have higher chances of winning and not to take time to research and know the game more deeper.

Topic: Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? - page 11. (Read 12696 times)