Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? - page 14.

KTChampions

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Quote from: maydna on December 24, 2020, 08:45:47 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on December 24, 2020, 06:57:05 AM

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

But I am sure that if we can collect valid data about the match, we will have a chance to win. I know that the bookmarkers will have the biggest chance of getting the money from the gamblers, but they can also lose the money, especially if some gamblers can win in different matches. We will need to have valid data and information about the team, and we know how much percentage for every team to win, so we can determine which team we can choose. And the rest, we can let it happen.

I do not understand how you reason. You do analysis, do research, etc. The same is done by a professional team with immeasurably large resources - it is obvious that you cannot compete with them and their results will be better. It's unavoidable. In addition, bookmakers have insides that simple betters certainly do not have.

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Quote from: pecson134 on December 26, 2020, 01:17:43 AM

Quote from: kryptqnick on December 13, 2020, 10:54:22 AM

I've recently created a discussion about the odds of various outcomes and the gaps between the likely winner and other options, but some replies raised another questions that I believe is worthy of being discussed. When placing bets on sports, I rely heavily on the odds, especially if someone has a very high probability of winning, like here:

I placed a small bet on this match on Sportsbet.io:

But of course when the odds are close to one another (2.5, 3.1 and similar), I try to rely on the history of matches between the teams and recent wins/losses of the teams.
What do you follow when you are betting on sports: is it the odds or your knowledge and experience? Or maybe you're one of those people who bet on the favorite team or perhaps follows a gut? Do odds even matter to you? If yes, how important are they for your final decision?

I always rely on those odds when I try to bet on something because there is a higher chance to win that choice though the prize was not that high since mostly would bet on it. Having this odds serves as a guide on their previous betting history on how often they won the events. You can risk for lower odd chance if you want to risk for higher prize but lower chance to win.

Just like majority of Us mate , because Odds are safe bets though Small wins most of the times than risking in your Instinct that mostly Give wrong implication.
and besides Majority of High Odds are the winners .
we cannot change that fact so if you are a real gamblers you must know that this will save your money if you wanted to gamble most of the time.
Small wins are enough than a total loser.

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Quote from: mezzaluna on December 26, 2020, 01:36:10 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on December 24, 2020, 06:57:05 AM

Quote from: maydna on December 23, 2020, 10:18:52 PM

If you can have or collect as much data as possible, you will have more chances to select the right team to bet. Having the data could help you decide how much money you should use to bet, and you can think twice if placing a medium or high amount will be necessary or you should place on small money. It could give us other benefits, such as knowing what strategy we can implement based on the current situations for each team. Besides that, we will know which team has high odds of winning the match.

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

That is true since data is just data and this kinds of data cannot really produce the outcome of the matches. It still depends on the teams playing but betting on the better team will result on a winnable bet. Without analyzing data or even reviewing the new skills that players develop throughout their playing time, the data collected would be useless.

But at least those date has been screened and Determined depend on How the Two teams/Fighters statistics recently and this was being given by experts on those fields so at some points they are valid .

But since this is our money then better to Know from your own knowledge whom to bet,because at least we won't blame anyone from our losses because the problem mostly is our activities in gambling that we are believing others than our self

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Quote from: KTChampions on December 24, 2020, 06:57:05 AM

Quote from: maydna on December 23, 2020, 10:18:52 PM

If you can have or collect as much data as possible, you will have more chances to select the right team to bet. Having the data could help you decide how much money you should use to bet, and you can think twice if placing a medium or high amount will be necessary or you should place on small money. It could give us other benefits, such as knowing what strategy we can implement based on the current situations for each team. Besides that, we will know which team has high odds of winning the match.

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

That is true since data is just data and this kinds of data cannot really produce the outcome of the matches. It still depends on the teams playing but betting on the better team will result on a winnable bet. Without analyzing data or even reviewing the new skills that players develop throughout their playing time, the data collected would be useless.

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Quote from: pecson134 on December 26, 2020, 01:17:43 AM

Quote from: kryptqnick on December 13, 2020, 10:54:22 AM

I've recently created a discussion about the odds of various outcomes and the gaps between the likely winner and other options, but some replies raised another questions that I believe is worthy of being discussed. When placing bets on sports, I rely heavily on the odds, especially if someone has a very high probability of winning, like here:

I placed a small bet on this match on Sportsbet.io:

But of course when the odds are close to one another (2.5, 3.1 and similar), I try to rely on the history of matches between the teams and recent wins/losses of the teams.
What do you follow when you are betting on sports: is it the odds or your knowledge and experience? Or maybe you're one of those people who bet on the favorite team or perhaps follows a gut? Do odds even matter to you? If yes, how important are they for your final decision?

I always rely on those odds when I try to bet on something because there is a higher chance to win that choice though the prize was not that high since mostly would bet on it. Having this odds serves as a guide on their previous betting history on how often they won the events. You can risk for lower odd chance if you want to risk for higher prize but lower chance to win.

all odds? what if the given is small ?will you still rely? For me i would rather search my Own than to believe in lower odds.

There are many chance that this kind brings Losses to the odd takers.

But of course many gamblers are relying on this .

pecson134

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Quote from: kryptqnick on December 13, 2020, 10:54:22 AM

I've recently created a discussion about the odds of various outcomes and the gaps between the likely winner and other options, but some replies raised another questions that I believe is worthy of being discussed. When placing bets on sports, I rely heavily on the odds, especially if someone has a very high probability of winning, like here:

I placed a small bet on this match on Sportsbet.io:

But of course when the odds are close to one another (2.5, 3.1 and similar), I try to rely on the history of matches between the teams and recent wins/losses of the teams.
What do you follow when you are betting on sports: is it the odds or your knowledge and experience? Or maybe you're one of those people who bet on the favorite team or perhaps follows a gut? Do odds even matter to you? If yes, how important are they for your final decision?

I always rely on those odds when I try to bet on something because there is a higher chance to win that choice though the prize was not that high since mostly would bet on it. Having this odds serves as a guide on their previous betting history on how often they won the events. You can risk for lower odd chance if you want to risk for higher prize but lower chance to win.

maydna

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Quote from: MCobian on December 25, 2020, 06:51:32 PM

Quote from: maydna on December 24, 2020, 08:45:47 PM

~snip~

I totally agree with you, that collect valid data about the match plays an important role in deciding which team we will choose for placing bets.
But most gamblers are lazy to do this and prefer choose their favorite team to place bets or rely on the odds. This is known by bookmarkers,
therefore many bookmarkers have finally managed to get money from gamblers.

They do that to support their favorite team, and perhaps, they will not choose the other team, even if their favorite team is not too strong than the opponent team. Perhaps, they don't have much time to search for the other teams or select their favorite teams because they still believe and confident that their favorite team can win. But if they can collect valid data, that can be their consideration to choose the strong team to place a bet. But that will be up to them to search the other team or use their favorite team to bet.

MCobian

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Quote from: maydna on December 24, 2020, 08:45:47 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on December 24, 2020, 06:57:05 AM

Quote from: maydna on December 23, 2020, 10:18:52 PM

If you can have or collect as much data as possible, you will have more chances to select the right team to bet. Having the data could help you decide how much money you should use to bet, and you can think twice if placing a medium or high amount will be necessary or you should place on small money. It could give us other benefits, such as knowing what strategy we can implement based on the current situations for each team. Besides that, we will know which team has high odds of winning the match.

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

But I am sure that if we can collect valid data about the match, we will have a chance to win. I know that the bookmarkers will have the biggest chance of getting the money from the gamblers, but they can also lose the money, especially if some gamblers can win in different matches. We will need to have valid data and information about the team, and we know how much percentage for every team to win, so we can determine which team we can choose. And the rest, we can let it happen.

I totally agree with you, that collect valid data about the match plays an important role in deciding which team we will choose for placing bets.
But most gamblers are lazy to do this and prefer choose their favorite team to place bets or rely on the odds. This is known by bookmarkers,
therefore many bookmarkers have finally managed to get money from gamblers.

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Quote from: Ucy on December 22, 2020, 04:11:01 AM

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Quote from: aomakun on December 17, 2020, 09:52:00 AM

If the odds were something like this well I really think I should just rely on odds. It's rare to see such odds in my opinion but there's no assurance that it will always win it's still gambling after all.

Odds does matter and they are particularly more useful when you want to see who is the favorite team. The favorite team or the team which is winning mostly gets lower odds and the weaker teams gets the higher odds. This is mainly true for the sports betting.

At first, I was confused by this.

I thought that the higher the odds mean the ones with the higher chance of winning while those with lower odds mean that they have a lower chance of winning.

Same here.
The word (odd) in betting world can be quite confusing especially without understanding the general meaning of word. I guess the word is somewhat synonymous with:, unknown, uncertain, strange etc So if the odd is high, the uncertainty or chances of winning is high. That how I simply see the word now . Haven't really properly researched why they use the word in betting.

Yes the word could be confusing in english but how could you think you'll get more money by betting on the favorite?
That's not logical. Otherwise everyone could easily earn money and bookmakers would be ruined.

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It's always good to view who a favourite team or competitor is (such as boxing) but I hadn't considered placing wagers on games or fixtures etc ending in a draw.

I'll have my own favourites (even when I know the opposition is probably going to win) but now I'll only use what the odds are when considering placing a bet on a draw especially when a Football match seems very evenly balanced.

maydna

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Quote from: KTChampions on December 24, 2020, 06:57:05 AM

Quote from: maydna on December 23, 2020, 10:18:52 PM

If you can have or collect as much data as possible, you will have more chances to select the right team to bet. Having the data could help you decide how much money you should use to bet, and you can think twice if placing a medium or high amount will be necessary or you should place on small money. It could give us other benefits, such as knowing what strategy we can implement based on the current situations for each team. Besides that, we will know which team has high odds of winning the match.

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

But I am sure that if we can collect valid data about the match, we will have a chance to win. I know that the bookmarkers will have the biggest chance of getting the money from the gamblers, but they can also lose the money, especially if some gamblers can win in different matches. We will need to have valid data and information about the team, and we know how much percentage for every team to win, so we can determine which team we can choose. And the rest, we can let it happen.

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Quote from: madnessteat on December 24, 2020, 07:59:45 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on December 24, 2020, 06:57:05 AM

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

I completely agree with you. The best sports analysts work for bookmakers and it is almost useless to compete with them because it is not only their main job but very often their favorite pastime. So if the outcome of the match differ from the odds bookmakers, it's an accident that happens very rarely.

That's not true! And if you are well-versed in certain events, you can sometimes spot deliberately false odds! Bookmakers make a lot of money on this! I've noticed this many times...So it is necessary to analyze the chances of teams and do not trust bookmakers!

Vaculin

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Quote from: madnessteat on December 24, 2020, 07:59:45 AM

So if the outcome of the match differ from the odds bookmakers, it's an accident that happens very rarely.

I'd like to hear more explanation on this as I can't really digest it in my mind. What do you mean by that mate?

AFAIK, oddsmaker only create odds, they don't predict the winner.

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Quote from: KTChampions on December 24, 2020, 06:57:05 AM

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

I completely agree with you. The best sports analysts work for bookmakers and it is almost useless to compete with them because it is not only their main job but very often their favorite pastime. So if the outcome of the match differ from the odds bookmakers, it's an accident that happens very rarely.

KTChampions

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Quote from: maydna on December 23, 2020, 10:18:52 PM

If you can have or collect as much data as possible, you will have more chances to select the right team to bet. Having the data could help you decide how much money you should use to bet, and you can think twice if placing a medium or high amount will be necessary or you should place on small money. It could give us other benefits, such as knowing what strategy we can implement based on the current situations for each team. Besides that, we will know which team has high odds of winning the match.

No matter how much data you collect, you will not be able to compete in the accuracy of determining the odds with bookmakers - whole teams of professionals and even AI work for them. May be you able to understand some events better than them, but at a distance you will not be able to compete with them.

Betwrong

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Quote from: kryptqnick on December 18, 2020, 09:59:23 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on December 17, 2020, 07:44:25 AM

~
I try to exploit this discrepancy. (^^My today's bet isn't the best example. Sometimes the outcome odds for an event with the same probability can be above 7.00. That's when it's definitely worth a shot.)

Some people who to bet on unlikely outcomes, but I think it's too risky. I'm not into such bets yet, but maybe I'll try them one day.

Yes, it's risky, but taking this into account you can wager less money than on less risky bets. Why do I prefer such bets is because it is more rewarding psychologically when you win $6-$7 wagering just $1, compared to winning $1-$2 wagering $10.

Gambling shouldn't be a way of making money, right? Then why not choose the way of betting that is more entertaining?

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Quote from: Ucy on December 24, 2020, 04:00:38 AM

Quote from: 3meek on December 22, 2020, 09:29:03 AM

I don't always rely on the odds, because bookmakers sometimes intentionally underestimate the success of the leader, or vice versa - overestimate the success of the loser... This is often seen in football...

Interesting. This is part of the reason I think it's better for bettors to do their own research rather than completely trust given odds.
By the way, the bookmakers estimations/calculations may not be intentional... could be unintentional wrong calculations or estimations.

Sometimes they'll mislead the bettors, they give an odds that one look we will believe it will give us an easy win, but most of the time it's the opposite that will happen, have experienced that many times so I learn myself not to trust on the odds easily, if you have experience you'll know that a trap happens in sports betting.

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Quote from: 3meek on December 22, 2020, 09:29:03 AM

I don't always rely on the odds, because bookmakers sometimes intentionally underestimate the success of the leader, or vice versa - overestimate the success of the loser... This is often seen in football...

Interesting. This is part of the reason I think it's better for bettors to do their own research rather than completely trust given odds.
By the way, the bookmakers estimations/calculations may not be intentional... could be unintentional wrong calculations or estimations.

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Quote from: stadus on December 23, 2020, 11:32:09 PM

Quote from: iamsheikhadil on December 23, 2020, 11:18:57 PM

Quote from: Prince Malik on December 23, 2020, 03:44:14 AM

I think that people must bet on what they think will happen whatever the ods...ods is a fully trapped thing and bookmakers are not really innocent Grin

They know well how to trapp bettors and make them choise the wrong desision

I agree with this approach. When the US presidential election was approaching, guts were saying Biden will win but many bookies showed 6x on Biden which made me think may be there was a chance bigly that Biden will lose. Odds depend on what majority of people think, and their "thoughts" have no value and if you do your own research and go with your guts, you will win bigly irrespective of the odds!

The real story here is we never know the outcome, we just bet based on what we think who will win, and since Biden was the favorites in the last election, that means a lot of people believe on him, however, if we consider the result of the past election where Trump won, the odds for him is high, means he is an underdog.

Here's the survey in 2016 election . https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

odd on 2016 election https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures

biggest odds for trump is "Trump +2500" Cheesy

Well, 2016 election was a disaster for every one who said they are good at predictions so yeah, it might be because for that the odds were so high initially for a Biden win. But if it was a normal election (where Trump is running for first time) against Biden, I would probably have seen Trump winning having odds at 100x. So, 2016 election might have influenced the betting odds here. But yeah, after all anything can happen, that's why it's gambling Cheesy

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Quote from: iamsheikhadil on December 23, 2020, 11:18:57 PM

Quote from: Prince Malik on December 23, 2020, 03:44:14 AM

I think that people must bet on what they think will happen whatever the ods...ods is a fully trapped thing and bookmakers are not really innocent Grin

They know well how to trapp bettors and make them choise the wrong desision

I agree with this approach. When the US presidential election was approaching, guts were saying Biden will win but many bookies showed 6x on Biden which made me think may be there was a chance bigly that Biden will lose. Odds depend on what majority of people think, and their "thoughts" have no value and if you do your own research and go with your guts, you will win bigly irrespective of the odds!

The real story here is we never know the outcome, we just bet based on what we think who will win, and since Biden was the favorites in the last election, that means a lot of people believe on him, however, if we consider the result of the past election where Trump won, the odds for him is high, means he is an underdog.

Here's the survey in 2016 election . https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

odd on 2016 election https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures

biggest odds for trump is "Trump +2500" Cheesy

Topic: Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? - page 14. (Read 12696 times)