Do you think this is the last four year cycle?

boyptc

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Quote from: Yaunfitda on September 01, 2021, 06:43:50 AM

Quote from: boyptc on September 01, 2021, 05:25:20 AM

The expected pump after the halving should be by the end of this year. I think if we're still going to correlate that, there's more to happen by the end of this year.

But it could be that the halving effect started also end of last year but that's quite early and then the correction that we've seen early this year, that could also be the bear that's expected to come every after ATH. Although, it just too quick.

Nah, I don't think that the end of halving has started last year. Even if we compare it to the bull run in 2017 and it's subsequent bear market, it's not that same. There are players, institutional money and whales are still in the market. We are not sure about the last ATH, it seems that it could be broken again this year, or at least 6 digits is still to come for us. And maybe after that, we might see the end, but who knows, the market psychology is also evolving.

It could be.

There's still a long way to go by the end of this year and most of the expectations are great as we wait for the that last month and day.

jaberwock

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Quote from: Yaunfitda on September 01, 2021, 06:43:50 AM

Quote from: boyptc on September 01, 2021, 05:25:20 AM

The expected pump after the halving should be by the end of this year. I think if we're still going to correlate that, there's more to happen by the end of this year.

But it could be that the halving effect started also end of last year but that's quite early and then the correction that we've seen early this year, that could also be the bear that's expected to come every after ATH. Although, it just too quick.

Nah, I don't think that the end of halving has started last year. Even if we compare it to the bull run in 2017 and it's subsequent bear market, it's not that same. There are players, institutional money and whales are still in the market. We are not sure about the last ATH, it seems that it could be broken again this year, or at least 6 digits is still to come for us. And maybe after that, we might see the end, but who knows, the market psychology is also evolving.

Everyone is saying that the increase was after the halving and every halving results with a big increase in price. However, the reality is that I believe we are in a situation where bitcoin was not high because of the halving alone but also pandemic and the big news about many companies going in at the same time. I mean last time when halving happened it took nearly 18 months for bitcoin to go up, after the halving it took us just a few months to go to double and less than a year to go to 6x price point.

So, that is a proof that it is not always about that, sure it just happened to be right after the halving but last time it wasn't like that at all. Which is why I believe that we should not consider this increase as a result of halving and expect the same thing to happen next halving as well, we may end up a bit disappointed if it doesn't work out.

Yaunfitda

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Quote from: boyptc on September 01, 2021, 05:25:20 AM

The expected pump after the halving should be by the end of this year. I think if we're still going to correlate that, there's more to happen by the end of this year.

But it could be that the halving effect started also end of last year but that's quite early and then the correction that we've seen early this year, that could also be the bear that's expected to come every after ATH. Although, it just too quick.

Nah, I don't think that the end of halving has started last year. Even if we compare it to the bull run in 2017 and it's subsequent bear market, it's not that same. There are players, institutional money and whales are still in the market. We are not sure about the last ATH, it seems that it could be broken again this year, or at least 6 digits is still to come for us. And maybe after that, we might see the end, but who knows, the market psychology is also evolving.

LogitechMouse

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The price of Bitcoin is heavily dictated by the sentiments of the investors themselves.
The Stock-to-flow model is just a model itself but investor see it as a basis into when they will invest.
The 4 year cycle of Bitcoin is just another cycle but for the investors, it is a perfect time for them to buy after the halving causing the price to rise.

I also think that this "cycle" that they are saying will stay as long as the investors are thinking the same. I don't think that this will be the last and there will be more in the future as long as investors see it as a perfect time to buy, they will buy causing it to rise.

boyptc

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The expected pump after the halving should be by the end of this year. I think if we're still going to correlate that, there's more to happen by the end of this year.

But it could be that the halving effect started also end of last year but that's quite early and then the correction that we've seen early this year, that could also be the bear that's expected to come every after ATH. Although, it just too quick.

pooya87

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Quote from: aoluain on August 30, 2021, 05:41:39 AM

I came to this thread thinking about some commentators on Twitter who were saying over the last
few months that the 4 year cycle will change and starting with this current cycle.

The thing about a 4-year cycle is that it is "4 years" and this current cycled didn't start yesterday, it started 3.5 years ago. And when the first 3 years are the same ([2018]the 1 year bear market as the big bubble bursts [2019] the smaller drops and accumulation phase [2020] positive signs and small rises [2021] big rise and finally the bubble at $500k) they can't claim that the "cycle will change this time"!
In other words the 80% of the cycle hasn't changed so far and the remaining 20% doesn't have any reason to change either.

To be clear I'm not saying it is impossible for the cycle to break but saying that we have no signs of any sort of change.

Dave1

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Quote from: Husires on August 30, 2021, 01:32:16 AM

Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?
I mean that the effect of the "halving pump" is over and has not become as effective as it was in the past as the price will not be associated with a significant increase after a year from the last rise.

Could be, but bitcoin market is fairly young so we can't really correlate any data to say that the "halving pump" will be over.

Personally, I think we will have two super cycles of bull run as oppose to one four year cycle.

Market is evolving and so is the pattern.

decodx

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I am certain that there will be another 4-year cycle. How? Well, because we're right in it. The current price is around 50k and it's been over a year since the last halving.
Your chart ends in 2019.

Kyraishi

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I personally do not think so.

I think that bitcoin has a long term future ahead of us and this is just the start. In fact, only around 10-20% of the advanced world has adopted bitcoin/cryptos in general.

Still a great deal of room for upward growth and the scarcity of bitcoin is not dictated by anything other than the 4 year halving cycles. 2024-25 should still be a good year for crypto overall.

STT

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The latest rise was more to do with the Dollar dilution then halvening, we would have taken a bit longer to have risen this much maybe an extra year to accumulate enough involvement and volume. I do remember saying each halvening matters less then the last, its effect is far less dramatic each iteration and despite this latest giant rise I think thats still the case in percentage influence. It doesnt mean we slow down because demand might rise and supply of the dollar as we've seen could become excessive in helping BTC remain bullish.

GreatArkansas

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This cycle is always possible. But we have a lot of things to consider, especially the fractals.
Another thing that is correlated with this cycle is the stock-to-flow (S2F) model which is kinda showing a similarity with this cycle, repeating the history.
This chart also showing that we should see $100,000 at the end of this year, the same as Stock-to-flow (S2F) model. $100,000 is still on my target this year and next year, but we should not be so positive about it, we still can't guarantee it.

Hippocrypto

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There's still a possible 5th cycle that's going to exist this year which also projected as wave 5 of market trend.
We seem to noticed several attempts that btc market will go beyond $50k but it's not yet happening, because of that scenario. When it comes at worst stage, the price might go down again then halving stage would be able to take place one day.
Increase will be triggered once the demand also increase consistently.

rhodelmabanal

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Quote from: Husires on August 30, 2021, 01:32:16 AM

The decrease in the quantity supplied was one of the factors that lead to the continuous rise in the price of Bitcoin and it is expressed in what is known as the Bitcoin four-year cycle chart.

Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?
I mean that the effect of the "halving pump" is over and has not become as effective as it was in the past as the price will not be associated with a significant increase after a year from the last rise.

There is still more than 100 years of mining to reach all the total coins and therefore it must be broken within a few years or become of little impact, especially with many coins in circulation and few of them to be mined.

Based on the Bitcoin standing and in some good news that we always hear, I think the four years cycle will continue. However everything still depend on the upcoming news and in upcoming updated about the development of crypto in the near future, everything may change so we always need to invest an amount that we can afford to loss.

slaman29

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I think there will always be a halving correlation but there will be changes, as I even said a few times before in old threads.

Firstly, the years will get longer.
Secondly, the drasticness will reduce (no more 90% drops and no more 20x rallies).
And no more mining spikes up and down also I think.

hatshepsut93

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The previous cycle was the last one in a sense that there won't be any x100 price increase between the bottom of the last cycle and the top of the next cycle. It's easy to have such growth when marketcap goes from millions of dollars to billions, but we're now in trillion territory. Bitcoin would need to touch $350-400k range before the next halvening for the pattern to remain intact, and I don't see it happening.

mk4

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What I think, is that people shouldn't really strictly follow the S2F chart. In the first place, it's just a model, not something that we should literally follow 1:1. It can break up and down, as we have seen in the past, but the point is that in the end bitcoin's price still follows the trend. Because in the first place— fud, regulations, and news in general obviously can't be factored in a price:supply model.

But to answer your question, I don't think it's the last 4 year cycle. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was. No one can predict price movements as per usual anyway.

aoluain

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Interesting thread and interesting posts.

I came to this thread thinking about some commentators on Twitter who were saying over the last
few months that the 4 year cycle will change and starting with this current cycle.

I guess what they mean or what I'm taking by that is there wont be a 2 year bear phase after the bull
phase directly after the halving. This also ties in with what has been posted above, supply, demand,
adoption is changing.

We have seen in the past and currently the phases in the four year cycle

The Halving
The bull phase
The bear phase
The anticipation phase ahead of the next halving.

Wexnident

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No, I actually think the same thing would happen in the next cycle, proof of it was the recent cycle we had. The one fueling the pumps in each cycle would probably the increase in adoption at every cycle imo. It's like an accumulation of the effects of adoption, one that is quite steady and constant. The 2018 one was a different one with it being a bubble, but the chances of it happening again are low imo since people who would start investing in Bitcoin again would know what happened in 2018 already. Ofc, this speculation relies on the adoption of Bitcoin in the future.

crwth

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I think if we have this in mind moving forward, it would entirely depend on a couple of things

Demand towards BTC
How many miners would sell their stack
Supply that people are willing to let go

If there are many people HODL-ing and many people have decided to HODL only, then there would be less supply, and it's going to be a matter of time when you are going to make this a point of change. More people want BTC or Not.

I would always want to have more price action towards BTC as it would rise so much. The most significant effect is where people are more involved, and more people are buying cryptocurrencies. Having the majority of coins in mind, it will have a higher rise in price since there is less left to be purchased or minted.

All of this is always speculation.

zanezane

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It's not, the four year cycle is permanent in my opinion. Halving has proven time and time again that it's always followed by a pump so I don't think that we will see a four year cycle ending. Plus it cuts the supply in half and the lower the supply combined with higher demand will always result in higher prices.

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