Let me just clarify that I believe there are two kind of correlations here. One is the hype that lasts about 1 or 2 months during the halving itself and another is the long term rise that comes after the actual halving and lasts a couple of months to a year. The rest (the 4 year cycle) is all about adoption and nothing else.
The hype itself (the short one) will eventually stop and we may not see any small bubbles that burst during those months. But the long term effect will always be there since the newly generated supply will be 50% less after the halving but at the same time the total supply that is being created is decreasing (it was 7200/day at first then 3600 > 1800 and now 900 BTC/day) so at some point 50% less won't make a difference like after a couple of halvings when 7 BTC/day turns into 3.5 BTC/day!
The longer term rises (the 4 year cycle) as I said is not about the halving but it is all about adoption. If we continue seeing bitcoin's adoption growth like the past decade the price rise will also be the same if not bigger and faster.