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Topic: Do you think this is the last four year cycle? - page 2. (Read 161 times)

legendary
Activity: 3402
Merit: 10424
Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?
No, this will never happen. The only thing that will change is the degree of this correlation.

Let me just clarify that I believe there are two kind of correlations here. One is the hype that lasts about 1 or 2 months during the halving itself and another is the long term rise that comes after the actual halving and lasts a couple of months to a year. The rest (the 4 year cycle) is all about adoption and nothing else.
The hype itself (the short one) will eventually stop and we may not see any small bubbles that burst during those months. But the long term effect will always be there since the newly generated supply will be 50% less after the halving but at the same time the total supply that is being created is decreasing (it was 7200/day at first then 3600 > 1800 and now 900 BTC/day) so at some point 50% less won't make a difference like after a couple of halvings when 7 BTC/day turns into 3.5 BTC/day!

The longer term rises (the 4 year cycle) as I said is not about the halving but it is all about adoption. If we continue seeing bitcoin's adoption growth like the past decade the price rise will also be the same if not bigger and faster.
hero member
Activity: 2912
Merit: 900
We will have to wait for the next halving,in order to verify whether or not the halving pump still works. Grin
If you ask me,there will always be a Bitcoin halving pump or a halving hype.The traders and investors are usually expecting the Bitcoin price to increase after a halving,so they are buying more BTC before the halving,which means the Bitcoin price will increase after the halving.This looks more like a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I don't think that there's a direct connection between the lower block reward and the higher Bitcoin price.

legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1284
The decrease in the quantity supplied was one of the factors that lead to the continuous rise in the price of Bitcoin and it is expressed in what is known as the Bitcoin four-year cycle chart.


Do you think from this point forward price will not correlate with the halving?
I mean that the effect of the "halving pump" is over and has not become as effective as it was in the past as the price will not be associated with a significant increase after a year from the last rise.

There is still more than 100 years of mining to reach all the total coins and therefore it must be broken within a few years or become of little impact, especially with many coins in circulation and few of them to be mined.
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