Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price?

BetMoose

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Real Bets. Real People. By Anyone, on anything

Quote from: ?? on ??

indeed

Anybody that has ever been to a well advertised estate auction or real estate auction knows this one simple fact:

Auctions will sell any item, whether it's a house or grandma's old furniture, for at least a few percent OVER what it's worth.

The competitive nature of auctions in combination with the publicity this auction is garnering? Yeah, there's no doubt in my mind these coins are going to sell for slightly over market value.

Dumped on the market? Not likely.

If I was a betting man, which I am, I'd say within a week after the auction results, the price of BTC goes up 2-5%, at least.

In fact, I'll wager 1 BTC that it does.

Anyone want to take that bet?

Hi Devin, put it up on betmoose.com - it's free and you'll get your 1 BTC back in full if no one bets against you. Make sure you clarify your decision logic and source carefully as 2-3% is very borderline in terms of BTC volatility. I think I know someone who may want to match it.

There's a similar bet here, though that's the auction itself, not about what happens afterwards.

___________

SilkRoad coins will be sold above market value

Options: Yes | No

RomertL

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Well I'm holding until the auction is over, then look to buy some more. I think may investors are thinking like that, that's why the price hasn't changed that much lately (well, not much by Bitcoin-standards anyway.) It's too hard to predict what will happen with the price after the auction, but most people think something will happen. So they rather wait to after the auction to buy in

We've had some good news during that time that normally would affect the price at least a little bit. I think price will go down little bit after the auction then up towards 700 when people notice they didn't get dumped directly on the exchanges. Pure speculation of course but this is the speculation forum after all Wink

.

Will the winner/winners be disclosed by the way? If so I guess the price could either go up or down directly following the auction depending on the winner: Is he assumed to be a long term Bitcoin believer (holding/investing, price up), don't care about bitcoin but want to make money short term (selling gradually, price down slightly) or after a quick buck/stupid (selling all at once, price down quite a lot)

Zohann

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Quote from: InwardContour on June 22, 2014, 11:24:38 PM

Quote from: Zohann on June 22, 2014, 11:10:25 PM

Quote from: InwardContour on June 22, 2014, 10:09:09 PM

Quote from: Zohann on June 22, 2014, 07:08:32 PM

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for. Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market. Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

One look at the list of bidders, and you know they want the coins... are they going to place a bid 5% under market? 10%? and risk not getting them? Or bid 1$ over market and ensure they get them. They try to buy that amount on the exchanges and it'll move the market. plus they won't get the free advertising.. being interviewed as the winner of the coins, and publishing the market price.

There is no guarantee that they would win the auction at any price.

The sad fact is that the additional supply being brought into the market will likely not be able to be absorbed by a normal amount of demand.

Most investors in bitcoin do not need to attract attention

Except for the names on their that would want the advertising... Namely Coinbase, Second Market, and Digital BTC... They would love to be interviewed on CNBC and would tweet the shit out of it I would hope.

InwardContour

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Quote from: Zohann on June 22, 2014, 11:10:25 PM

Quote from: InwardContour on June 22, 2014, 10:09:09 PM

Quote from: Zohann on June 22, 2014, 07:08:32 PM

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for. Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market. Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

One look at the list of bidders, and you know they want the coins... are they going to place a bid 5% under market? 10%? and risk not getting them? Or bid 1$ over market and ensure they get them. They try to buy that amount on the exchanges and it'll move the market. plus they won't get the free advertising.. being interviewed as the winner of the coins, and publishing the market price.

There is no guarantee that they would win the auction at any price.

The sad fact is that the additional supply being brought into the market will likely not be able to be absorbed by a normal amount of demand.

Most investors in bitcoin do not need to attract attention

Zohann

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Activity: 92

Merit: 10

Quote from: InwardContour on June 22, 2014, 10:09:09 PM

Quote from: Zohann on June 22, 2014, 07:08:32 PM

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for. Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market. Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

One look at the list of bidders, and you know they want the coins... are they going to place a bid 5% under market? 10%? and risk not getting them? Or bid 1$ over market and ensure they get them. They try to buy that amount on the exchanges and it'll move the market. plus they won't get the free advertising.. being interviewed as the winner of the coins, and publishing the market price.

InwardContour

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Activity: 644

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Quote from: Zohann on June 22, 2014, 07:08:32 PM

Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for. Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market. Who would sell their BTC for less?

There is no real reason for any bidder to bid BTC above the market value of bitcoin. There are simply not enough bidders/potential buyers to cause a need to bid above the market price.

tntdgcr

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Bitcoin Mining Hosting

the FIAT side of my body says I certainly hope so. I don't mind if it gets bad enough that it's just another wise hedge

the miner side says "magic help us" and save the day. But really , it's just 7-8 days of mining , so .......

and the ownership of one, isn't direct volume trading on the exchanges we use .... so? -10% , if they start hitting the market -30% for a bit with a pretty good rebound as it would be pure speculators. they aren't trying to move them to FIAT =p

Zohann

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Market psychology will value the coins at the price that the auction goes for. Once such a large amount of BTC is bought at just over market. Who would sell their BTC for less?

seleme

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Duelbits.com

Quote from: ?? on ??

indeed

Anybody that has ever been to a well advertised estate auction or real estate auction knows this one simple fact:

Auctions will sell any item, whether it's a house or grandma's old furniture, for at least a few percent OVER what it's worth.

The competitive nature of auctions in combination with the publicity this auction is garnering? Yeah, there's no doubt in my mind these coins are going to sell for slightly over market value.

Dumped on the market? Not likely.

If I was a betting man, which I am, I'd say within a week after the auction results, the price of BTC goes up 2-5%, at least.

In fact, I'll wager 1 BTC that it does.

Anyone want to take that bet?

Zhis is not the auction you're talking about. One bid, no changes.

flailing Junk

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I predict that the auctions will go for increasing amounts of USD and trigger the next run-up.

wonkytonky

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Merit: 250

there's already a buyer who wants to buy them all .. so i think they will market price buy them or higher. if they gonne compete for them coins.

I think we will know the price .. since smaller investors are buying also trough secondmarket and they will know the price.. it will not take long before we know the actual numbers..

and why sell if you got them 50$ cheaper . not worth the trade for big players. ? maybe smaller investors might try to make a quick profit in selling fast en buying back lower.

but again.. i dont think that kind of investors are buying now.. the one's buying now are ppl who dont want slippage and think more longterm.

I only see whales trying to manipulate this auction news for a quick sellof so their bids are filled below market price. so i'm putting up some bids to catch that potential dip.

so shorterm: possible fast and hard dip with fast 100% retrace.
middterm: very bullish .. who knows start of bubble.. once we break 800 there's no resistance left (volume profile wise) only the psychological ath...

nwfella

legendary

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Well hello there!

my 2 cents. pre-announcement at least partly responsible for recent decrease. Likely to see a fairly major dip right around 27th...quick stabilize, and then ka-bam...end of july fireworks (hoping)

eoJ

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Quote from: kwukduck on June 20, 2014, 03:15:08 AM

Anyone who thinks this will not cause a crash is nuts.
Think about it, 30k btc will be sold super cheap, maybe anywhere between 50-80% of the current market price. This by itself won't have an effect, but as soon as the buyers receive those coins they will be dumped on the regular exchanges to take that difference as profit and we will see a big drop.
This drop will in turn cause a panic sell-off, so i suspect we'll end up anywhere between 200-300 USD soon. We can already see it coming down the past days, fear is grabbing a hold of people already even though nothing has happened.

...Except for the fact that one hedge fund already offered to buy the whole lot for 15% under, a few months ago. Why would smaller lots attract a lower price?

jamesc760

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Possible scenarios on June 27th, the day of the auction:

1. Silk Road coins are sold below market value:

Depending on discount rate, btc value will go down accordingly.

2. Silk Road coins are sold at around the fair market value:

It confirms the prevailing btc value, causing more people to buy in, thus triggering a lift-off.

3. Silk Road coins are sold at above the market value:

Bigger effect than #2 above, a huge lift-off.

66.667% chance that BTC will skyrocket on or after June 27th, 2014.

bigasic

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Its already effected the price. Once the auction is over, then we will get back so semi-normalcy. I dont get how it even effects the price. Its not like we are going to see the coins on any market any time soon...

Now, when the 144k coins go on the block, that will be very interesting. But those wont go up for sale until DPR's litigation is over with. Which could be a few years.

ShakyhandsBTCer

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Quote from: BitCoinDream on June 21, 2014, 11:46:43 AM

Quote from: CryptoCurrencyInc.com on June 19, 2014, 07:58:22 PM

Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price?

Will the winner of that auction instantly sell off 29,656.51306529 bitcoins for a quick profit?
If so, will it affect the Bitcoin's price?

Winner of the auction wont sell it quickly, though price is suppressed now because of this only. I wish this auction is over fast. As per my analysis, price may go down to 500 USD at most.

It depends on the intentions of the buyer(s). If they are bidding so they can attempt arbitrage then they will likely sell quickly, if they indent to invest in bitcoin for some other purpose then they will not.

Junko

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If price goes up, great.

If price goes down, great.

If price stays around the same, great.

As long as you have a plan in the case of any scenario, you have nothing to worry about.

BitCoinDream

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The revolution will be digital

Quote from: CryptoCurrencyInc.com on June 19, 2014, 07:58:22 PM

Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price?

Will the winner of that auction instantly sell off 29,656.51306529 bitcoins for a quick profit?
If so, will it affect the Bitcoin's price?

Winner of the auction wont sell it quickly, though price is suppressed now because of this only. I wish this auction is over fast. As per my analysis, price may go down to 500 USD at most.

Gimmelfarb

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i think fear about the auction has been driving the price down. but the bears can't build any momentum -- only achieving slightly lower lows with momentum divergence. so i think it's already baked into the price, and i think we have found a local bottom.

abacus

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a clockwork miner

Quote from: fryarminer on June 20, 2014, 04:39:53 AM

This is what I'm thinking. Especially if it is a closed auction, good chance that they might be sold for higher than current price.
Were that the case, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the losing bidders turn to the exchanges to purchase what they didn't win in the auction. Especially if they are truly interested.
In this scenario it could possibly make the price go up.

Yes, it also could happen.
About the speculation on the higher ending price, I've found this other thread with interesting thoughts:
FBI coins could sell for a premium

Quote from: fryarminer on June 20, 2014, 04:39:53 AM

This auction has given individuals with serious money the idea to invest in bitcoin. That's a good thing.

Sure. Take a look, if you didn't already, at who have asked more informations about these auctions:
http://www.coindesk.com/list-possible-silk-road-bitcoin-bidders-allegedly-leaked-us-marshals/
I don't really think that those people are interested in the auctions for the hope of a dump and some quick money.

Topic: Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price? (Read 3743 times)