I'm going with the price dip theory, but i'd imagine it is difficult to buy 30k bitcoin quickly if you wanted to, so maybe they will be held due to the fact you couldn't purchase 30k btc in a day without having to progressively pay more per coin? That could be completely wrong of course, as I can't exactly test that theory.
Topic: Do you think U.S. Marshall auction 29,656.51306529 bitcoins will affect price? - page 2. (Read 3743 times)
June 21, 2014, 06:03:47 AM
June 21, 2014, 05:28:57 AM
June 20, 2014, 04:39:53 AM
Yes, it will affect price for sure, either directly or indirectly. The direct way would be the auction winners dumping it on the markets or exchanges. The indirect way is people preemptively sell their bitcoins in anticipation for the dump after the auction. This might have already happened with the recent dip. Btw, this thread belongs in the speculation subforum.
I'm not so sure that the final price will be lower (or quite lower) than the current market price.
In that case, there is no reason to dump them on the market.
IMVHO, the ending auction price could be even higher.
I don't have a precise idea but I think it could be possible if we start to consider, in a random order, the strictly rules of the auctions, the kind of entities that demonstrated their interest, the fact that someone could prefer to buy without moving the market and the fact that these BTC will be sold - for the first time - through a somehow OFFICIAL way.
This is what I'm thinking. Especially if it is a closed auction, good chance that they might be sold for higher than current price.
Were that the case, it wouldn't surprise me if some of the losing bidders turn to the exchanges to purchase what they didn't win in the auction. Especially if they are truly interested.
In this scenario it could possibly make the price go up.
This auction has given individuals with serious money the idea to invest in bitcoin. That's a good thing.
June 20, 2014, 04:39:31 AM
Not at all because if you look at the people who will be bidding it is obvious that they will be hodling, not dumping 
June 20, 2014, 04:33:12 AM
Well I don't think that it will have any impact on the price, maybe only some minimal one.
We are having trouble staying above $600 as it is now.
We are having trouble staying above $600 as it is now.
June 20, 2014, 03:57:39 AM
First I'm quite skeptical that all btc gonna go to a single person/organization..! If someone can pls confirm that. because what I heard is that they are not gonna bid for all 29,656.51306529 bitcoins at once.
Ok lets take the case of if that happens and a persons succeeds in acquiring all 30kbtc from auction , I won't call it a wise decision to dump all the coins at once. seems totally absurd to me, dumping them according to market and necessity would be wiser.
One other thing that matters is who wins the auction, as the list is already leaked, there are few good names in it.[although they all are in for money]
Ok lets take the case of if that happens and a persons succeeds in acquiring all 30kbtc from auction , I won't call it a wise decision to dump all the coins at once. seems totally absurd to me, dumping them according to market and necessity would be wiser.
One other thing that matters is who wins the auction, as the list is already leaked, there are few good names in it.[although they all are in for money]
June 20, 2014, 03:48:55 AM
Join the club:
 ___________ | SilkRoad coins will be sold above market value Options: Yes | No |
 ___________ | Average Price of Silk Road Coins to be Sold by USMS Options: Less than 520 | >=520, less than 580 | >=580, less than 640 | >=640, less than 700 | >=700 |
June 20, 2014, 03:47:38 AM
You must be from the future then.
So, they will be sold super cheap? On what information did you base that idea?
So, they will be sold super cheap? On what information did you base that idea?
Based on the fact that auctions are expensive, a big chunk of the amount goes to the auction house and i doubt the buyer will pay 15-20% extra for their bitcoins just to be that nice guy.
Quote
So, the coins will be dumped on the exchanges? On what information did you base that idea?
Based on
1. How do you know they'll use an auction house for digital currency's. Since when does the buyer at an auction pay the up-price, that's usually the cost of the seller not the buyer.
2. So because people are greedy, they'll dump the coins? Most bidders are pro-bitcoin. And even if they weren't, they'd know that they could earn a lot more if they didn't dump them but sell them gradually, IF they wanted to do that. Considering they are mostly pro-btc, there is a high chance they'll hodl. I don't expect any significant dump to happen.
3. I expect the people bidding on the auction to be wealthy enough to see this as a small investment, it's not your average Joe bidding here. Therefore I expect them to have no reason to sell quickly.
June 20, 2014, 03:45:39 AM
30k btc = 8 days mining i dont think prices would change that much, maybe a couple bucks. Great opportunity for a big whale to buy in i should imagine the interest will be very large at this auction.
June 20, 2014, 03:38:16 AM
You must be from the future then.
So, they will be sold super cheap? On what information did you base that idea?
So, they will be sold super cheap? On what information did you base that idea?
Based on the fact that auctions are expensive, a big chunk of the amount goes to the auction house and i doubt the buyer will pay 15-20% extra for their bitcoins just to be that nice guy.
Quote
So, the coins will be dumped on the exchanges? On what information did you base that idea?
Based on the fact that most people are greedy, only have their own fat wallet in mind and couldn't care less about others or the world that surrounds them.
June 20, 2014, 03:23:37 AM
Anyone who thinks this will not cause a crash is nuts.
Think about it, 30k btc will be sold super cheap, maybe anywhere between 50-80% of the current market price. This by itself won't have an effect, but as soon as the buyers receive those coins they will be dumped on the regular exchanges to take that difference as profit and we will see a big drop.
This drop will in turn cause a panic sell-off, so i suspect we'll end up anywhere between 200-300 USD soon. We can already see it coming down the past days, fear is grabbing a hold of people already even though nothing has happened.
Think about it, 30k btc will be sold super cheap, maybe anywhere between 50-80% of the current market price. This by itself won't have an effect, but as soon as the buyers receive those coins they will be dumped on the regular exchanges to take that difference as profit and we will see a big drop.
This drop will in turn cause a panic sell-off, so i suspect we'll end up anywhere between 200-300 USD soon. We can already see it coming down the past days, fear is grabbing a hold of people already even though nothing has happened.
You must be from the future then.
So, they will be sold super cheap? On what information did you base that idea?
So, the coins will be dumped on the exchanges? On what information did you base that idea?
You must've sold out then? Go play outside.
June 20, 2014, 03:15:08 AM
Anyone who thinks this will not cause a crash is nuts.
Think about it, 30k btc will be sold super cheap, maybe anywhere between 50-80% of the current market price. This by itself won't have an effect, but as soon as the buyers receive those coins they will be dumped on the regular exchanges to take that difference as profit and we will see a big drop.
This drop will in turn cause a panic sell-off, so i suspect we'll end up anywhere between 200-300 USD soon. We can already see it coming down the past days, fear is grabbing a hold of people already even though nothing has happened.
Think about it, 30k btc will be sold super cheap, maybe anywhere between 50-80% of the current market price. This by itself won't have an effect, but as soon as the buyers receive those coins they will be dumped on the regular exchanges to take that difference as profit and we will see a big drop.
This drop will in turn cause a panic sell-off, so i suspect we'll end up anywhere between 200-300 USD soon. We can already see it coming down the past days, fear is grabbing a hold of people already even though nothing has happened.
June 20, 2014, 01:53:25 AM
Yes, it will affect price for sure, either directly or indirectly. The direct way would be the auction winners dumping it on the markets or exchanges. The indirect way is people preemptively sell their bitcoins in anticipation for the dump after the auction. This might have already happened with the recent dip. Btw, this thread belongs in the speculation subforum.
I'm not so sure that the final price will be lower (or quite lower) than the current market price.
In that case, there is no reason to dump them on the market.
IMVHO, the ending auction price could be even higher.
I don't have a precise idea but I think it could be possible if we start to consider, in a random order, the strictly rules of the auctions, the kind of entities that demonstrated their interest, the fact that someone could prefer to buy without moving the market and the fact that these BTC will be sold - for the first time - through a somehow OFFICIAL way.
June 20, 2014, 01:49:54 AM
is this open auction (bidder can see another bidder price) or close auction (bidder ask price in close paper)?
I think very sure they will immediately dump in exchange for quick profit if they get it for cheaper price than markets
but if they won auction with same price or even higher price than markets, they will hold it for a while, and dump it when right time coming
however, this is not good for market, since someone has many bitcoins can dump it anytime
I think very sure they will immediately dump in exchange for quick profit if they get it for cheaper price than markets
but if they won auction with same price or even higher price than markets, they will hold it for a while, and dump it when right time coming
however, this is not good for market, since someone has many bitcoins can dump it anytime
June 19, 2014, 11:35:29 PM
Yes, it will affect price for sure, either directly or indirectly. The direct way would be the auction winners dumping it on the markets or exchanges. The indirect way is people preemptively sell their bitcoins in anticipation for the dump after the auction. This might have already happened with the recent dip. Btw, this thread belongs in the speculation subforum.
June 19, 2014, 11:30:18 PM
Temporarily yes, think we might see $500-550 at least for a while
Would expect the market to recover pretty fast though
Would expect the market to recover pretty fast though
June 19, 2014, 11:09:10 PM
Already priced in.
June 19, 2014, 11:05:29 PM
Yes.....for a very short period of time. Then, like usual after the debris settles, everything will go back to the normal gradual upswing.
June 19, 2014, 10:50:10 PM
No effect. The FUD might, but the auction, no. And if you're a bidder, slide me some of that MarshalCoin for good karma! Lol...
June 19, 2014, 10:43:10 PM
I think that it has already affected it, with that dip when it was announced some days ago.
The sell itself will not happen on the exchanges, so it should not represent a sell-force.
BTW, this thread should have a better place in Economics > Speculation.
(you OP can move it yourself with the link a the bottom of your page)
The sell itself will not happen on the exchanges, so it should not represent a sell-force.
BTW, this thread should have a better place in Economics > Speculation.
(you OP can move it yourself with the link a the bottom of your page)
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