The bottom range pretty clearly was 3100 - 4200, which lasted some 4.5 months.
what are you talking about? it hasn't even been 4 months since the bottom.
how are you gauging what the "bottom range" is? how do you know you're not just focusing on a few months within a
larger range over a longer time period? why do you expect this bear cycle to end so much faster than the 2014-15 cycle?
Its been in that range for 4.5 months, with the actual literal bottom (lowest price) coming 3.5 months ago. The bottom in 2015 ended with a large spike after breaking through resistance. That's literally what happened tonight.
in 2015 we broke through a much more established and long term resistance. by your parameters, the bottom range in 2015 was 11 months long and the top of the range was tested 3 discrete times (january, march, july) before finally breaking in november.
there's just no comparison to the current chart in terms of time or magnitude. it's like comparing an hourly candle chart to a daily chart; they are worlds apart. the only long term resistance in question is the $6000 zone and we're still quite far from breaking and holding above there.
The bear market lasted only about two months less this time (took 14 months in 2014, took 12 months in 2018)
it took 23 months in 2014-15 to confirm a reversal---november 2013-october 2015.
this time around it's TBD since we haven't come close to confirming a reversal. but we're at the 15-month mark now.
Maybe you define bottom differently. But I would define it as the bottom of the market, in which bitcoin was stuck range bound near the absolute bottom and under high resistance at a specific level, and once that resistance broke it is able to spike up unlike anything seen during the bottom. Defines what we saw with the bottom in 2015 and now.
that's a really vague definition that gives no sense of time or magnitude. the october 2015 breakout was much, much more impressive and technically significant. in 2015, it was a 230% rise through a thrice-tested resistance formed over 9 months. this time, it's a 60% rise through a twice-tested resistance formed over 3 months. it's a
medium term breakout, not a long term one.
i've been trading for a nearly a decade, long enough to know that it takes lots of time to reverse from bear markets. you don't crash for a year straight and shoot into a bull market 3 months later. it doesn't happen in any markets, and it certainly never happened in bitcoin. the fact that so many bottom callers are coming out the woodwork now is a classic sign that we'll continue the bottoming process over the next several months.