The price hit 5,000 today. Obviously, it will fall back to 4,000 these days. But does anybody know what the hale it is?
a key resistance ($4200) was broken. lots of stop losses were sitting right above that breakout area. looks like some big liquidations too. margin calls + stop run = fast price movement. it doesn't necessarily indicate a new bull market or anything, just that temporarily shorts were heavy, supply was low and demand was strong.
i'm really glad to see this breakout though. it's the first weekly higher high since december 2017. i think we're really carving out a bottom range now. give it 6 more months and we might just have ourselves a bull market.
The bottom range pretty clearly was 3100 - 4200, which lasted some 4.5 months.
what are you talking about? it hasn't even been 4 months since the bottom.
how are you gauging what the "bottom range" is? how do you know you're not just focusing on a few months within a
larger range over a longer time period? why do you expect this bear cycle to end so much faster than the 2014-15 cycle?
Its been in that range for 4.5 months, with the actual literal bottom (lowest price) coming 3.5 months ago. The bottom in 2015 ended with a large spike after breaking through resistance. That's literally what happened tonight.
I didn't expect this bottom to end so much faster than the 2015 bottom. The bear market lasted only about two months less this time (took 14 months in 2014, took 12 months in 2018), but i fully expected the bottom to last around as long as the 2015 bottom and for us not to see the kind of price movement we just saw tonight until late summer or early fall. But now we saw it, can't unsee it. As long as it doesn't fall back below $4200 we are out of the bottom.
But if you think about it a quicker bottom makes sense. Last bear market there was MtGox which not only robbed a lot of the bitcoin community of their money, but made people afraid to get in and took down the largest exchange in a time when large exchanges weren't prevalent they way they are today. Also it was the first time there was a full 4 year cycle (assuming the 4 year cycle holds into the future) and therefore a ~2 year bear+bottoming market. Now bitcoiners have seen this all before. We all knew to expect a long bear market, and a bottoming out phase lasting a significant amount of time too. We also all knew it will turn around. Whereas the 2014-2015 market was down soooo much longer than at any previous point for bitcoin. Basically this was a lot less scary for bitcoiners so we were just waiting knowing the next bull run is coming, I think 4 years ago a lot of people lost hope cuz it was soooo much longer than any previous bitcoin market.
Also when comparing the two periods, 2018/2019 and 2014/2015, bitcoin is constantly in the news now, its talked about on financial programs quite often, tech CEOs talk about it, governments talk about it, you have major tech companies and banks working on their own cryptocurrencies, you have lots of companies researching blockchain, you have institutions on Wall St gearing up to offer Bitcoin services this year.
Basically if you pay attention to the financial industry or the tech industry at all you hear a lot about bitcoin. It is much more relevant today than 4 years ago simply in terms of being paid attention to. Bitcoin basically dropped off the face of the earth (the little bit of the global consciousness that it had entered in late 2013 and early 2014) during the last bear market. This time thats not remotely true.
So yeah it makes sense if this bottom is over and the bull market just started and was only half as long as the last bottoming out phase, because there's 100x more things happening in bitcoin in terms of interest and attention than there was at this point in the last cycle.
Maybe you define bottom differently. But I would define it as the bottom of the market, in which bitcoin was stuck range bound near the absolute bottom and under high resistance at a specific level, and once that resistance broke it is able to spike up unlike anything seen during the bottom. Defines what we saw with the bottom in 2015 and now.
