from http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bitcoin-heading-toward-high-could-1-million-175818638.html
Right now, because Bitcoin's price is going up, and Bitcoin is in relatively short supply, people are willing to pay almost $1,000 for it. And the ever-increasing demand for Bitcoin will keep driving the price up until people don't want to buy or hold it anymore.
At that point, by the way, unless Bitcoin has become widely accepted as a legal means of exchange (as "money"), the price of Bitcoin will collapse. And anyone who thinks the price of Bitcoin can't collapse all the way to zero is delusional.
I also think the odds are that Bitcoin will probably prove to be a gigantic bubble, like Beanie Babies, Pogs, or, yes, tulip bulbs. Bitcoin has all the hallmarks of bubbles, including:
A good underlying story (the need for a global, electronic, anonymous currency)
A sexy "new-ness" that requires some work to understand
A small and finite supply
A fundamental "value" that is subjective
A high level of risk and excitement associated with trading it
A passionate community of early adherents who are convinced of their own brilliance and lash out defensively at anyone who dares suggest that they are hallucinating. (Don't believe this? Diss Bitcoin on Twitter and see what happens. Bitcoin zealots are more aggressive and sillier than Apple fanboys.)
I have also described some of the major risks that could break the Bitcoin spell and lead to a price collapse. The biggest of these, I think, is that Bitcoin won't ever become widely accepted as a means of exchange — either because governments ban it or because it remains complicated and shadowy.
So, yes, Bitcoin is probably a gigantic bubble that will leave its early religious devotees looking and feeling like fools.
Topic: Does anyone think the price is unsustainable? Only bears please and seriousness. - page 5. (Read 6940 times)
November 26, 2013, 04:14:59 PM
November 26, 2013, 02:04:10 PM
Think I'll get a beartrap for my avatar.
November 26, 2013, 01:48:57 PM
Edward
Yes it is unsustainable at these prices and yes it will drop hard but to be honest i don't know where is the top , it could be between 1-2 K , so it isn't that far but we will visit lower prices again that's for sure , BTC price bloated alot within a short period of time at the beginning of the year it was at what $13 so lets get real , i have seen many penny stocks that jump and drop within a short period of time and i've seen some penny stocks jump and make a correction then visit the top again then go sideways -but drifting slowly to the downside - for a long time until it reaches the starting point again 0.0001 , if i've learned one thing in life it would be that making money is hard and getting rich is near impossible , so think of it why would be buying BTC at 800 a sure easy smooth bet ?
Yes it is unsustainable at these prices and yes it will drop hard but to be honest i don't know where is the top , it could be between 1-2 K , so it isn't that far but we will visit lower prices again that's for sure , BTC price bloated alot within a short period of time at the beginning of the year it was at what $13 so lets get real , i have seen many penny stocks that jump and drop within a short period of time and i've seen some penny stocks jump and make a correction then visit the top again then go sideways -but drifting slowly to the downside - for a long time until it reaches the starting point again 0.0001 , if i've learned one thing in life it would be that making money is hard and getting rich is near impossible , so think of it why would be buying BTC at 800 a sure easy smooth bet ?
November 26, 2013, 01:10:53 PM
IMO the current situation on Gox can have (at least) two possible outcomes:
1. break the resistance and stabilize above 900$, with a new ATH of about 1,300$. (the bullish scenario, although uber-bulls would say 1,800$ or more).
In EW theory terms, the break would be the first sub-sub-wave, followed by a slow uptrend (second) and then the parabolic rise (third) and large drop.
2. failure to break 900$ and stabilize, followed by a large drop.
In EW theory terms, it would mean that now we are at the top of wave B (fake return to bull market), and we can expect several large drops, with rebounds in between.
1. break the resistance and stabilize above 900$, with a new ATH of about 1,300$. (the bullish scenario, although uber-bulls would say 1,800$ or more).
In EW theory terms, the break would be the first sub-sub-wave, followed by a slow uptrend (second) and then the parabolic rise (third) and large drop.
2. failure to break 900$ and stabilize, followed by a large drop.
In EW theory terms, it would mean that now we are at the top of wave B (fake return to bull market), and we can expect several large drops, with rebounds in between.
November 26, 2013, 10:51:08 AM
The amount of bullish circlejerk is reaching alarming levels, time to get out..
November 26, 2013, 10:30:37 AM
I believe those who think 800 cannot be real and is unsustainable dont want accept the fact they made bad decision and feel the need to be proven they were right. It is quite normal human behaviour.
November 26, 2013, 10:19:56 AM
But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.
In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.
Don't look at the absolute value, and look at the percentage instead. Moving $10 to $20 (100%) is huge, but moving $790 to $800 (1.27%) is really nothing.
And from $100 to $900 it's 900%.
November 26, 2013, 07:39:59 AM
Firstly, I don't really like the terms bull and bear, I would describe myself instead as a skeptical investor, so I hope that qualifies. There is clearly a lot of exuberance in the crypto market and evidence of herding which are both indicative of a bubble pattern, but I am afraid it is just too early to say if the price is unsustainable.
Bitcoin behaves and is treated a lot like a stock. If it were it probably would have been split a few times already and you would see a much more palatable price, although one that doesn't change the market cap. A move to mbtc would presumably be the Bitcoin equivalent of a stock split, but I don't think will catch on for a while. I will throw in to the mix too that a single share of Bekshire Hathaway trades for over $173,000 and is non divisible, so high stock prices are not unknown and may encourage a longer term outlook.
The market manipulation, if verified, concerns me greatly. It was a major factor in the collapse of the South Sea bubble and may shatter investor confidence. The thing that concerns me most though, more than the problems of getting money out, hoarding or volatility, is probably the lack of utility that Bitcoin holds for me. I never had any qualms about shopping on the Internet in 1994, so I don't consider myself too conservative - I just don't understand why I would want to use my coins to pay for anything. I also remember that people have been re-inventing digital wallets every few years for decades and they never catch on. Perhaps it will be different this tine, but perhaps not. Cash has a powerful hold on most people. I will add though that I have no idea what they do in China, so I concede that foreign markets may be different.
I was also thinking about the times I have needed a bankers draft or CHAPS payment - these are the UK terms for a guaranteed immediate exchange of payment. People often use one or other when buying a house or car. Bitcoin could potentially be used for these transactions, to avoid bank charges, but then again it is needed so infrequently by most people that the £20-ish charge is tolerable.
As a last point i would add that with an entirely digital, globally traded entity, Bitcoin may just become the biggest example of an irrational price hike we have yet seen (although I am not saying it is currently irrational). When one market slows down another may pick up the baton and run with it, prolonging the run for many more years. This makes it quite unique historically where the crazy has been much more geographically isolated. Even the dot com boom, although partly global, was largely NASDAQ led. A sustainable level might just be higher than you think.
Bitcoin behaves and is treated a lot like a stock. If it were it probably would have been split a few times already and you would see a much more palatable price, although one that doesn't change the market cap. A move to mbtc would presumably be the Bitcoin equivalent of a stock split, but I don't think will catch on for a while. I will throw in to the mix too that a single share of Bekshire Hathaway trades for over $173,000 and is non divisible, so high stock prices are not unknown and may encourage a longer term outlook.
The market manipulation, if verified, concerns me greatly. It was a major factor in the collapse of the South Sea bubble and may shatter investor confidence. The thing that concerns me most though, more than the problems of getting money out, hoarding or volatility, is probably the lack of utility that Bitcoin holds for me. I never had any qualms about shopping on the Internet in 1994, so I don't consider myself too conservative - I just don't understand why I would want to use my coins to pay for anything. I also remember that people have been re-inventing digital wallets every few years for decades and they never catch on. Perhaps it will be different this tine, but perhaps not. Cash has a powerful hold on most people. I will add though that I have no idea what they do in China, so I concede that foreign markets may be different.
I was also thinking about the times I have needed a bankers draft or CHAPS payment - these are the UK terms for a guaranteed immediate exchange of payment. People often use one or other when buying a house or car. Bitcoin could potentially be used for these transactions, to avoid bank charges, but then again it is needed so infrequently by most people that the £20-ish charge is tolerable.
As a last point i would add that with an entirely digital, globally traded entity, Bitcoin may just become the biggest example of an irrational price hike we have yet seen (although I am not saying it is currently irrational). When one market slows down another may pick up the baton and run with it, prolonging the run for many more years. This makes it quite unique historically where the crazy has been much more geographically isolated. Even the dot com boom, although partly global, was largely NASDAQ led. A sustainable level might just be higher than you think.
November 26, 2013, 06:49:55 AM
But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.
In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.
Don't look at the absolute value, and look at the percentage instead. Moving $10 to $20 (100%) is huge, but moving $790 to $800 (1.27%) is really nothing.
And from $100 to $900 it's 900%.
November 26, 2013, 06:56:07 AM
The bear argument is just as well understood. There just isn't much of one, so however hard you look you are going to struggle to find some huge insight why you shouldn't buy other than "it could crash anytime". Same could be said about pretty much every financial instrument I can think of.
I'm far bigger bull now than the past few crashes, but of course its once you get complacent that you should worry.
Thats about as serious/bearish as you'll get me though.
Hold for the longest time. Skim a bit when shit gets cash. Don't trade. Works for bears and bulls alike.
I'm far bigger bull now than the past few crashes, but of course its once you get complacent that you should worry.
Thats about as serious/bearish as you'll get me though.
Hold for the longest time. Skim a bit when shit gets cash. Don't trade. Works for bears and bulls alike.
+1 from me. Great advice.. and true to boot.
November 26, 2013, 06:51:38 AM
The bear argument is just as well understood. There just isn't much of one, so however hard you look you are going to struggle to find some huge insight why you shouldn't buy other than "it could crash anytime". Same could be said about pretty much every financial instrument I can think of.
I'm far bigger bull now than the past few crashes, but of course its once you get complacent that you should worry.
Thats about as serious/bearish as you'll get me though.
Hold for the longest time. Skim a bit when shit gets cash. Don't trade. Works for bears and bulls alike.
I'm far bigger bull now than the past few crashes, but of course its once you get complacent that you should worry.
Thats about as serious/bearish as you'll get me though.
Hold for the longest time. Skim a bit when shit gets cash. Don't trade. Works for bears and bulls alike.
November 26, 2013, 06:41:38 AM
You should have probably made this a self-moderated post if you want to keep it bear only. You will be constantly berated by bulls otherwise.
November 26, 2013, 06:19:30 AM
But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.
In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.
Don't look at the absolute value, and look at the percentage instead. Moving $10 to $20 (100%) is huge, but moving $790 to $800 (1.27%) is really nothing.
November 26, 2013, 06:17:51 AM
You think its unattainable because you think 800 is a lot to you. To the rich that realize what bitcoin really is. 800$ is nothing. They buy it up. Implement it as the new standard and then hold the price at the 1m+ range and if you wanna shop at their stores you will pay the bitcoin price. Cash sure you can keep, money in bank yes you can keep, well some. Because the new zirp thats about to sweep over. Look to the banks to charge you interest on your money. So Cash=dangerous. Banks=pay interest. Bitcoin=free storage. But since you don't buy now. Look to being a slave.... Telling everyone around you. I could have been rich, instead of having the balls to be.
November 26, 2013, 06:17:36 AM
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/china-and-the-soaring-price-of-bitcoin.html
When the Chinese can freely buy dollars without buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the coming fall in the Yuan, Bitcoin values will take a big hit.
When the Chinese can freely buy dollars without buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the coming fall in the Yuan, Bitcoin values will take a big hit.
Buying dollars as hedge of Yuan seems really funny to me.
But I agree that BTC is a good hedge. 
November 26, 2013, 06:10:35 AM
I sold a good chunk of my BTC and have around $30k sitting in my bank account so I would love for the price to plunge.
But I think we are at a sustainable level. Those that wanted to sell at $1,000 have probably already cashed out by now as it is likely close enough for most people.
I do not believe we will go over $1,000 for the moment, we would need momentum to take us over that price point and we no longer have it. A week ago I believed we would shoot up past $1,000 to new territory but even then I believed we would fall back to around this price, right below $1,000.
But...the price does like to drop on bad news. When Silk Road went down the price crashed (before bouncing right back).
So if you are looking to buy back in, make sure you have some buy orders in the $600 and $700 range because a quick reaction to some bad news may create a quick fear sell. But it will be short lived (when the price was sitting at $120 for a long time I had a bunch of buys going all the way down to $82, the price dropped to my bid of $93 before returning up). Though the money I had in the 80s waiting to buy would have done better at $120 than at $500 when I finally made use of those funds.
But I think we are at a sustainable level. Those that wanted to sell at $1,000 have probably already cashed out by now as it is likely close enough for most people.
I do not believe we will go over $1,000 for the moment, we would need momentum to take us over that price point and we no longer have it. A week ago I believed we would shoot up past $1,000 to new territory but even then I believed we would fall back to around this price, right below $1,000.
But...the price does like to drop on bad news. When Silk Road went down the price crashed (before bouncing right back).
So if you are looking to buy back in, make sure you have some buy orders in the $600 and $700 range because a quick reaction to some bad news may create a quick fear sell. But it will be short lived (when the price was sitting at $120 for a long time I had a bunch of buys going all the way down to $82, the price dropped to my bid of $93 before returning up). Though the money I had in the 80s waiting to buy would have done better at $120 than at $500 when I finally made use of those funds.
November 26, 2013, 06:04:43 AM
Why do threads like this keep popping up? Why is supply and demand so difficult to understand?
November 26, 2013, 05:52:49 AM
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/11/china-and-the-soaring-price-of-bitcoin.html
When the Chinese can freely buy dollars without buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the coming fall in the Yuan, Bitcoin values will take a big hit.
When the Chinese can freely buy dollars without buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the coming fall in the Yuan, Bitcoin values will take a big hit.
November 26, 2013, 05:48:16 AM
HOLY SHIT FUCKING PANIC SELL
I couldn't sell my fucking bitcoins fast enough. I took a bit of a fucking loss.
Stupid fucking mt. gox does not have a stop loss, where I would have sold my coins before the $5.00 wall was broke.
That was intense selling those coins.
Well I gambled. I had my chance to sell above $5.2 all day today. And had my chance to sell at $5.1 just before the drop and my warning.
Now I have a fucking bit coin loss.
I knew better than to hold them, but held them like an idiot. Just look at my last posts when I said multiple times I was selling,
I couldn't sell my fucking bitcoins fast enough. I took a bit of a fucking loss.
Stupid fucking mt. gox does not have a stop loss, where I would have sold my coins before the $5.00 wall was broke.
That was intense selling those coins.
Well I gambled. I had my chance to sell above $5.2 all day today. And had my chance to sell at $5.1 just before the drop and my warning.
Now I have a fucking bit coin loss.
I knew better than to hold them, but held them like an idiot. Just look at my last posts when I said multiple times I was selling,
I was smart to sell those coins. It was not long before bitcoin was at 2.01. I was personally waiting for it to drop to the $1.00 range to buy in again and I was planning on buying in big. Oh well, missed my buy in point but was close enough.
Bitcoins now should be worth more than they were in early 2012 when I wrote that. It has been out longer and the technology tested better. However, the $800 price for a bitcoin is still crazy in my book and unsustainable.
Unsustainably low. Wait till some of the 80 billion usd / month new money gets involved. These coins will be seen as cheap cheap yum yum!
BTCBTCBTCBTC
Good luck with the bear love fest!
November 26, 2013, 04:58:24 AM
Its not uncommon to miss Bitcoin advantages and just look at price. Then you think the price can not be real when you could buy 3 year ago just under 1 USD. But the more people use Bitcoin, the higher the price is, because userbase has high value in any business
But rising 2x or 3x is one thing. Rising as much as it has in such a short period is another thing. We are talking about a huge amount of money movement.
In the past, bitcoin price moving $10 dollars was huge. Now a $10 dollar movement is nothing.
It is hard to see how the demand has grown this much and how the market can support such a high price.
I am totally confused and can not figure out how the value can rise so fast so quickly. Lets face it, the technology is still very new and it is still difficult to even buy bitcoins for more computer savvy people.
Something just does not add up here. I personally believe there is major manipulation in the market right now by very rich players who can move the price easily short term.
I agree with the manipulation. I am afraid we are witnessing a gigantic pump and dump. I really wish I am wrong because if it is the case it will leave bitcoin discredited.
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