Topic: does it feel like 2014 again? - page 2. (Read 439 times)

yes it can be said today's crypto market situation is similar to 2014, but what needs to be seen is, the lowest crypto price this year especially bitcoin is still far above the average of 2014. It can be said that this is a form of polarization and tendency every year, that crypto early in the beginning year will always decline, but at the end of the year the price touched new records.

Feels very much like it. Thanks to TS for sharing his views. Seems like it has some proven ground and not only speculation. Would give you a merit if only I had one)

from a tech analyst point of view that's almost right on. the lower channel is about 7700usd though not 8k exactly. a drop on volume through 7700 would be seen as bearish with a first major target around 7k. people would then be watching to see if support holds or we drift or we break. as long as the price doesn't get close to 6k it's not  a major concern. if it does, especially on volume this being the 3rd visit of 6k makes penetration likely. under that who knows? 4k would be the 2014 correction numbers which honestly seems a bit ridiculous. this market isn't nearly as bad and 2017 didn't have nearly the run up 2013 did

on the bull side we ideally want to see something like a double bottom trace out and move up to 8200-8400 and from that point have a hard move that goes through 8900 which is the 100 day moving average, a move through 8600 which is the near term resistance almost guarantees 8900-9000. the 200 currently is at 10,200 but it falls everyday we are under it. if this sideways situation traces out for another 60 days it will be much easier to get on the right side of it for a run at 10

lastly. tinfoil hat time....which might not be that heavy of tinfoil. next gen miners are being developed. we all know bitmain is a major and i mean MAJOR player. it's in their interest to keep the price reasonable which keeps people away and the difficulty from rising too quickly. do i need to review the difficulty increase in the 2nd half of 2017? once they have mined a lot and sold a lot of the new miners price can be inflated which not only raises the cost of the miners but starts drawing people in. more and more people come in buying more and more coins and miners. bitmain and the other major players can sell into this strength AND sell their products for higher prices. this cycle can continue as long as they have the funds to manipulate price. it gets even more likely if you envision a syndicate or cartel of major players. remember....unregulated market here

if seen from the graph it is the current conditions the same as in the year 2104, but no one will know what the price at the end of year.jika seen from the volume and level of population then the end of this year will be stronger than 2014.

There was an article which I read yesterday which stated some technical calculation based on the graphs. Im not techie one to understand that but they clearly mentioned if bitcoin is going to drop below 8K USD (which is about to) then it could happen that we will run into the bearish trend and might hit the low rates of 6-7K USD.

However, they analysed the further data with 4 hours scale and stated that if we do cross exactly 8,600 USD rates then we will turn the trend into bull run.

Now either your post which is based on hypothesis of 2014 data OR this article based on fresh data of 2018 is going to be true. The question is which one is true and on what we should rely on.

That's what's up..


"Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

Yeah, that's what I tell people I talk to about crypto so it's not my fault if they lose all of their money..

Not in all cases right, like AUR.. Not gonna happen again..

But BTC.. The freaking chart is like a heartbeat under ever increasing magnification.. I definitely believe it will happen again..

How long? Don't know..
His heartbeat is at somewhat irregular intervals..

1. did that mt gox attorney seriously unload on an exchange? i mean...why? i'm relatively new but do have a background in securities and there is NO WAY i would ever unload hard if i was given thousands of bitcoins. if i do all the damn bots will follow me into the ground. oh no, especially considering he has quite a few more left. call the winklevoss twins. hell call anyone on the crypto top 10 list and make a deal OTC. even if you give them 10 points off spot it's a better deal than you will get on an exchange when all the bots start going to town on the technical pattern you single handedly create. the media says he has like 160,000 coins left. if 8k coins made this kind of impact it will take him years to unload at that rate. hell even a firesale at 30 points off spot solves his problem, pays all the creditors and a lot is left over. if that guy walked into consensus and said BTC for sale. 30% off gdax if you buy 50 million usd or more i bet quite a few hands would go up. seriously, what is he thinking ?

2. if 2014 does play out the majority of the fall is already over, next is the drift and if the 80% 2014 correction were to ring true again 4k would be the target with  4500-5000 being more likely as everyone would buy as we approach that number. a lot of BTC traders are very technically superstitious. like i have never met a group who puts more weight in elliot waves and fibs than crypto traders.

3. i'm mixed on the 10k comment you made. here's why. the 200sma. the longer we consolidate the easier it is to get on the right side of that. this market also has a thing for 3s. anyone else notice this in the patterns? we have had 2 failed 10k attempts in current history. if 7700 holds right now and we get a breakout a push through 10k has a strong possibility. last time the 200SMA was right at 10k and we bounced off both. if the next rally is a few weeks to a month out and we get on the right side of it one of two major hurdles is already out of the way. clearing 10 however is only a major accomplishment if it holds as support. if we run to 11,700 and get turned around which is highly likely on attempt one everyone will be watching to see if 10k holds or if we run back down under it to a support level in the 8s or 9s

mmm

yeah...i'm with you on that

You also need to factor in the trustee selling thousands of coins in the 3rd week of December that also placed a huge selling pressure on the market. After this was done, many traders also followed suit, which resulted into a heavy crash from Dec-Jan. Kinda like a chain reaction, and that's one of the biggest reasons I see why we never really see the light of $20k.



The last part of this statement somewhat feels very unlikely today. Multiple times we have tried to go lower than $6000 but it seems that the market wouldn't permit such, though I'll admit there's still room of such a huge crash anytime. If the parabolic movement replicates 2014 and 2017, it could be another year or two of accumulation and quietness in the market. Many would surely let go and cause yet another crash but those who are silently accumulating will continue to do so and cause another hype for people to come back in.
 

I don't really see bitcoin crossing the $10k mark even within the end of this year. Many are too optimistic but don't understand that it's not possible yet given the market conditions. I'm expecting another stagnant year with many pullbacks and short-lived rises.

basically in my opinion it doesn't matter whether this looks or feels like 2014 or not. in the end the circumstances are different and the result will be different. just because some certain trend happened before it doesn't mean it can and will happen again. price may continue to go down even when you think it should stop because it is like previous time or it may stop here and reverse up and start the rise.

yea that's the thing. 2013 had the marcus and willey situation but 2017 had bitfinex and the spoofing, wash trading, tether etc.

i completely agree on adoption. i mean you have people from all walks of life interested in crypto right now

also agree on the correction. we had a 70% peak to trough on this one which is only 10 points shy of 2013 which was a MUCH bigger rally with a MUCH crazier nuclear blow up.

so really...i was spit balling with this question. what do people actually think of this year and even the current situation with good/great news being sold fairly hard. we still haven't reclaimed the 200SMA. we also are tracing out a wedge pattern if the 6k low holds. if it does and we keep making these lower highs you eventually get to the tip of a wedge which almost always equals a breakout one way or another. if the 6k low is broke then you have a decline situation with lower highs and lower lows. if 6 goes the 2014 situation starts looking reasonably likely. chart patterns often repeat themselves. we have already had a 70% retrace. 2014 was 80% that's how close things already are.

there is no moral. it was more of a thought out question. does it feel like 2014 again?

we also are no where near the biggest dump in prices. not even close. 2014 had an 80% retrace. the only thing that is "largest" is the sheer number of dollars per coin but that is kind of meaningless.

as i mentioned above, an s9 is making about $3 a day at 11kwh which is a standard price in the US. profits are pretty terrible right now if you're mining.

it's not fud on the mining. i'm looking at current difficulty and current price/electricity/maintence. i'm sure there are now a lot of miners as #1 they were extremely profitable for the past year and #2 they have them. the number of new s9's being sold i would imagine is much lower. at 11 cents kwh an s9 is making around $3 a day. who is spending $1200 on a miner for $3 a day?

we also have the unresolved bitfinex / spoofing / tether situation and how much effect it had in 2017

alt coins have been following bitcoin so again my comment on gpu mining looks a lot like what i just said about the s9. an alt coin that suffers a 98-99% loss from today's price is dead. without funds how will the project further develop and be competitive? they become a gamblers coin at that point. there are what? 1500 alt coins or so? by the time you get to #100 on just marketcap you start getting into some shady projects. even popular penny coins like electronium. dude. they can't even make their phone app work correctly and this today is ranked at #100. it's also not any any of the major exchanges. there are 1400 worse than this

So whats the moral of this story at all?

Are we going to sink to 4K USD or if we try to resist then we will be going back to ATH? What exactly everything has got to do with this scenario. I mean isn't that this year is already different than the others as we have the biggest dump in prices form ATH 19K USD which was never seen in the past at all.

I believe (referring to your statements) if network difficulty is falling then 101% more miners will jump in and then again they will help BTC to mine at increased hashing power. This cycle will keep repeating and there is no such thing "miners leaving the crypto". I guess it only points to imaginative specs nothing else.

to be honest, no!
things are not at all similar to the last bitcoin bubble. this time it wasn't a fake manipulation by one exchange like it was back in 2013, this was a large amount of real money coming in. you can't ignore all the adoption and we have already had the huge  correction that was needed after the bubble.


never ever in a million years do this!
USDT is one of the riskiest coins because it is centralized to a shady company that can be hacked or scam and run away like all the other exchanges did in the past (the same company runs Bitfinex).

It is almost the same as 2014 but the increasing and the decreasing stake are faster now than before. Bitcoin price drops fast and sometimes increase fast and we can't control it and no one will control it because that's bitcoin how it works. It is base on the buyer and the seller of it, I guess, the more we buy the more bitcoin will increase its price and the more we sell bitcoin then the more bitcoin it will drop.

Yes, it kinda feels like 2014 again. We get a 2 year slump after a ATH and I think we might be in that correction or slump phase now. The price history is not a guaranteed indicator of what will happen in the future, but it explains the price behaviour we have now.

People who came in during 2017 will not understand this, so they will probably exit after a year of poor price performance , but the old timers will ride this like a Pro Suffer and profit BIG in the end. ^smile^

I agree, in fact I think it's a win for Bitcoin if this year maintains the consolidation and holds it's price at $6,000 - $8,000. This can prove to the world financial press that 2017 wasn't a farce or a fad, that Bitcoin is here to stay. It also proves to the next wave of investors that Bitcoin is worthy of their attention.

I don't think so.
Now that the bull market has arrived, there is no need to do anything, all that needs to be done is to hold.