This is the reason why professional traders are always checking the chart history because in trading more often history repeats itself.
Also this is the reason why most people who invested in Bitcoin are always still positive/believes that Bitcoin will recover and will rise again.
Topic: does it feel like 2014 again? - page 3. (Read 439 times)
I think that you can only partially agree with your arguments. You conducted a good study of the bitcoin course in previous years. However, one must take into account that our world has never developed in a circle, its development is spiraling. We are returning to the original position, but at a new, qualitative level. Therefore, it is not necessary that after taking off in price in the previous year, this year for bitcoin will be practically stagnant. Butcoin is already on a different level. Let's hope that bitcoin stagnation this year will not happen.
i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017
don't give up too soon, bitcoin had at least 3 more bubbles like these two in the past. the 2013 one is the most obvious one that you know without even looking at the charts.Quote
miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.
when you start a topic like this first thing you need to do is to do some research first. right now i feel like you are repeating the same FUDs like a parrot. first with the lack of knowledge about previous bubbles but you claim you have "Studied the charts" now this. you claim miners are already leaving (by the way there is no GPU miner, it is ASIC) if you take a look at the hashrate you can clearly see that it has been rising meaning more miners are coming in and right now it is at its highest hashrate of all time or ATH
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html
Quote
if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year.
although i had a different opinion about this, but i am starting to change my mind.Quote
difficulty may even fall on many alt coins.
altcoins will continued to get dumped because they were pumped extremely thanks to all the last year bitcoin rallies.but there will be other coins and more importantly newer coins which will come and get bigger pumps. so "difficulty" won't be on all of them.
Quote
80-90% of altcoins would die.
altcoins rarely die. they will endure. of course you can define "death" as going down to less than 1 satoshi but they will still exist and be traded and be pumped an dumped even if they are worth 0.01 satoshi (1 e-10 bitcoin)Quote
my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support.
i wouldn't jump to make any bottom speculations because the drop is not normal and when it is not normal you can't predict what will happen.
It kinda feels like it, but somehow it is quicker, i dont expect a prolonged decline as back in 2014. Interest is higher now, there are more miners and profit margin for them is high, so i do not expect to see 2000 or 3000 btc as it woud be required to be equal as 2014. decline.
i wasn't around for this but i know some of you were. i was studying the charts earlier and noticed since bitcoin was invented it has had 2 parabolic bull markets. 2013 and 2017
in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear. also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k. miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.
the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.
if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.
long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.
in 2013 the bitcoin price run was basically 20 to 1000 or a 5000% increase. in 2017 it was much smaller at 2000% but still very much a run. 2014 also had mt gox go nuclear. also note at the lowest point in the last bear market bitcoin never even got close to where 2013 started before the run up. the market low was found in spring of 2015 around $220 or 10x higher than the start of 2013 however it was an 80% peak to trough. after this it was an uptrend for years with corrections along the way. we had a MUCH smaller run in 2017 at only 2000% vs 5000% in 2013 and no mt gox blow up. it seems very unlikely to have a repeat as the news is actually really positive and you run into problems with the network in general below 5-6k minimum now. we also have already had a 70% correction with no where near as bad of news and no where near as big of initial run up. an 80% correction would be BTC 4k. miners will start shutting down due to low profitability around 6k and or difficulty will have to fall....in fact that's already starting. you actually get more coin selling hashing power now than you did at this time last month. many of the dec/jan gpu miners are likely already leaving.
the thing i noticed about all modern parabolic moves is they rarely if ever recover quickly. bitcoins massive run in 2013, the nasdaq in 1999. the thing that gets me though. both of those prior examples had real fundamental reasons that brought them down. 2017 really did not. people just sold....well. because lambo and beach house.
if history repeats 2018 will not rally, it will simply be a consolidation year. weak hands will be shook out. difficulty may even fall on many alt coins. maybe even bitcoin. we may have seen the low at 6k and we may even test 5. going to 4 would be an absolute floor unless we are destined to go to zero. i'm sure a lot of miners would shut down. network traffic would fall. 80-90% of altcoins would die.
my personal feeling is this may be a range bound year. we probably have an absolute floor at 5k and might go there if a hard attempt is made at the last 6k support. we also likely have resistance at 12k that will push back if we move through 10k.
long term. this is healthy. weak hands are shook out and those of us who stick around will be able to mine easier and accumulate at good prices.
Jump to: