Does martingale really works? - page 28.

Alvin Fahriza

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Quote from: Xialla on July 04, 2015, 04:35:34 AM

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:

after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

damn sorry for that Sad

pooya87

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Quote from: FanEagle on July 04, 2015, 04:48:24 AM

Quote from: Xialla on July 04, 2015, 04:35:34 AM

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:

after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

People who has money on that "famous site" usually stick on martingale with 2x or 2.3x and never change or almost never...the roll between high or low... some smart do it, others never even if you tell them to change it.

i tried the switch between rolling high and low for some time in order to just give it a try and mix things up. but the result was not different and lost the same amount as before even more. i can say my luck did not change anymore than when i bet on just low or just high.

@Xialla
sorry to here about the big loss dude, losing ~5BTC really sux

waterpile

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Quote from: trafficolaa on July 04, 2015, 01:29:00 PM

Quote from: Xialla on July 04, 2015, 04:35:34 AM

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:

after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

Sorry to hear this -5BTC lost in 5 losing streak in row that 5 losses happened from which base bet, i think that is very dangerous example of using martingale at gambling site it get us into negative profit from positive, some people will win from the start of this method for first time but in the end they can lose with that strategy.

every strategy will lose in the long run bud, it is really getting lucky or not.

arallmuus

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Quote from: patt0 on July 04, 2015, 01:31:23 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on July 03, 2015, 11:27:53 AM

20 times is not actually rare, it happen most of the time especially in a big site like PrimeDice which you can check that they have people gibbering the same thing about the house being rigged because of 20 + lost streak.
Also 1 satoshi is not a profit because you merely need to win 10,001 satoshi and withdraw it to your wallet to consider that you got profit considering the site is using standard 10k satoshi miners fee

Well if you need one million tosses to get a 38% of getting 20 heads in a row, that makes it a little "rare".

You are getting a wrong point here, it is not you need X number of bets to get it but it happens once every X bets so it happens quite alot especially if you are playing in some popular dice sites. It is not impossible to happen because each bet is dependant and you could even suffer a loss streak with 1.02 multiplier.

You may think that it is "rare" but in fact it is normal and happens quite alot ( check PrimeDice's thread ) . You could suffer a lost streak after having X number of rolls or even the exact moment after you start your rolls or best scenario is that you are "lucky" and never have any lost streak

Phildo

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Quote from: patt0 on July 04, 2015, 01:31:23 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on July 03, 2015, 11:27:53 AM

Quote from: patt0 on July 03, 2015, 10:25:03 AM

lets you use martingale at least 20 times, which should be a "rare" event, you should be able to make a profit (if you can call 1 satoshi a profit).

20 times is not actually rare, it happen most of the time especially in a big site like PrimeDice which you can check that they have people gibbering the same thing about the house being rigged because of 20 + lost streak.
Also 1 satoshi is not a profit because you merely need to win 10,001 satoshi and withdraw it to your wallet to consider that you got profit considering the site is using standard 10k satoshi miners fee

Well if you need one million tosses to get a 38% of getting 20 heads in a row, that makes it a little "rare".
I'm not a dice expert, I don't know the amount of time you need to roll it a million times (guessing it should be fast with bots), and that's probably the reason you say that it happens "most of the time".

Not saying I like martingale or that it is profitable. I don't like and I don't consider it profitable. And like you said you always have the bet limit, which totally makes it undoable.

The problem with bots and such small minimum bets is that it's a LOT easier to do 1 million rolls on a dice site than it is in any casino game in a real casino.

patt0

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Quote from: arallmuus on July 03, 2015, 11:27:53 AM

Quote from: patt0 on July 03, 2015, 10:25:03 AM

lets you use martingale at least 20 times, which should be a "rare" event, you should be able to make a profit (if you can call 1 satoshi a profit).

20 times is not actually rare, it happen most of the time especially in a big site like PrimeDice which you can check that they have people gibbering the same thing about the house being rigged because of 20 + lost streak.
Also 1 satoshi is not a profit because you merely need to win 10,001 satoshi and withdraw it to your wallet to consider that you got profit considering the site is using standard 10k satoshi miners fee

Well if you need one million tosses to get a 38% of getting 20 heads in a row, that makes it a little "rare".
I'm not a dice expert, I don't know the amount of time you need to roll it a million times (guessing it should be fast with bots), and that's probably the reason you say that it happens "most of the time".

Not saying I like martingale or that it is profitable. I don't like and I don't consider it profitable. And like you said you always have the bet limit, which totally makes it undoable.

trafficolaa

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Quote from: Xialla on July 04, 2015, 04:35:34 AM

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:

after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

Sorry to hear this -5BTC lost in 5 losing streak in row that 5 losses happened from which base bet, i think that is very dangerous example of using martingale at gambling site it get us into negative profit from positive, some people will win from the start of this method for first time but in the end they can lose with that strategy.

FanEagle

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Quote from: Xialla on July 04, 2015, 04:35:34 AM

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:

after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..

People who has money on that "famous site" usually stick on martingale with 2x or 2.3x and never change or almost never...the roll between high or low... some smart do it, others never even if you tell them to change it.

Xialla

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/dev/null

well, I have to admit, that I'm little bit addicted watching others gambling:) this is few minutes old from one popular dice:

after this streak (5 losses in row, -5BTC) in less than two minutes I decided to stay away..:)

Pony789

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Quote from: chriswen on July 03, 2015, 08:18:34 PM

While you don't get +EV with martingale, you get + profits 'easily' (at risk of ruin). Because martingale is +profits that's why people think it's +EV.

Exactly. That's why we can see so many posts in this thread talking about martingale works in the short run.
They simply neglect the small chance that they can get a bad streak in the short run.

chriswen

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While you don't get +EV with martingale, you get + profits 'easily' (at risk of ruin). Because martingale is +profits that's why people think it's +EV.

bitcoinmar

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Quote from: Akbarkoe on July 03, 2015, 01:43:51 PM

Quote from: skeletonbit on July 03, 2015, 11:21:58 AM

Using martingale strategy never changes your expectation. If the odds are in the house's favour then changing your bet size doesn't change that.

i think, gambling no need strategy to play
but just for lucky and please be patience if you want to win

Its best tip for any one be patience because its always pays good dividend and the person has patience has more chance of success then martingale system

Akbarkoe

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Quote from: skeletonbit on July 03, 2015, 11:21:58 AM

Using martingale strategy never changes your expectation. If the odds are in the house's favour then changing your bet size doesn't change that.

i think, gambling no need strategy to play
but just for lucky and please be patience if you want to win

arallmuus

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Quote from: patt0 on July 03, 2015, 10:25:03 AM

Well if you find a site that lets you start as low as 1 satoshi

Most site allow this unless they are using bits in their sites

Quote from: patt0 on July 03, 2015, 10:25:03 AM

and has no limit on the max you can bet (and you have the bankroll for it), in theory you should make profit.

Unfortunately there is no site that has no max limit on what you can bet because it is based on the max win amount.

You dont need to be an expert in math to know this stuff because no max bet could be consider an infinite max bet and if you have infinite bankroll as well that means that you have infinite chances to roll and no matter how big your lost streak is, it doesnt matter because you have infinite bankroll . Simple words , it takes infinite lost streak for you to bust

Theoretically this is not a possible things but Im just merely showing some math about it and this is two conditions to fulfill for you if you want your martingale to work

Quote from: patt0 on July 03, 2015, 10:25:03 AM

lets you use martingale at least 20 times, which should be a "rare" event, you should be able to make a profit (if you can call 1 satoshi a profit).

20 times is not actually rare, it happen most of the time especially in a big site like PrimeDice which you can check that they have people gibbering the same thing about the house being rigged because of 20 + lost streak.
Also 1 satoshi is not a profit because you merely need to win 10,001 satoshi and withdraw it to your wallet to consider that you got profit considering the site is using standard 10k satoshi miners fee

skeletonbit

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Using martingale strategy never changes your expectation. If the odds are in the house's favour then changing your bet size doesn't change that.

patt0

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Well if you find a site that lets you start as low as 1 satoshi, and has no limit on the max you can bet (and you have the bankroll for it), in theory you should make profit.
The problem is that not site will ever let you do that, and that's why it does not work.

I'm not a math expert so take a look at this site
http://marknelson.us/2011/01/17/20-heads-in-a-row-what-are-the-odds/

In the end it estimates that you have 38% chance of seeing 20 heads in a row, in a million tosses.
So yes, if you have a site and a bankroll that lets you use martingale at least 20 times, which should be a "rare" event, you should be able to make a profit (if you can call 1 satoshi a profit).

vendetahome

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Quote from: Tauja on July 03, 2015, 07:36:37 AM

Quote from: FanEagle on July 03, 2015, 12:42:41 AM

Ok, i tested my method at roulette with doges,from 700 I've been able to work them until 10k,which is a great success for me.
When I started seeing my method to fail some I dashed out,so in conclusion any short term strategy similar to martingale may work, but never abuse it.

If want to use martiangle strategy how much to invest for get a profit
Because i use martiangle to bet in dice, but i loss.
Thanks man

its almost impossible to win some decent amounts of money with such betting strategies such as martingale, you should try playing without them

arallmuus

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Quote from: aakashsangwan on July 03, 2015, 01:03:57 AM

So in order to avoid this we should stop gambling for that day after winning series and again start the next day

Just for the sake of clarification, it wont work at some point if you keep on doing this. Basically as there will be always a chance for you to bust immediately after you start your martingale sequences. With the -EV on your side, you are bound to lose often and it could be either immediately after you start or after you gain some profit

Quote from: aakashsangwan on July 03, 2015, 01:03:57 AM

Even if we think that we can edge the house or how confident are we!!!!..

Basically you cant get a +EV if you are using martingale as it will always be -EV for you the same thing to all other "strategy" you can think about , best is that you will end up lowering the edge but not +EV on this case. To be getting +EV you will need to either find some flaw , take you chances to get the +EV through bonuses or giveaway and be a part of the house by investing in the bankroll.

aakashsangwan

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Quote from: Bardman on July 03, 2015, 03:25:46 AM

Quote from: aakashsangwan on July 03, 2015, 01:03:57 AM

Martingale really works and can you very nice profits but only in short term.

As, when you are betting on games or casino online then for 3 to 4 rounds it can give you some handsome amount of profits and only in a matter of minutes.

When we see that we are on top of the house then we turn greedy and we loose all of our profits and the balance also.

So in order to avoid this we should stop gambling for that day after winning series and again start the next day. Even if we think that we can edge the house or how confident are we!!!!..

Seriously? After 70+ pages of discussion you come here and say this stupid shit? Are you just trying to increase your post count or what? How can something work on a short term and not in the long term? Then i would just use martingale for a short term and stop, and repeat and get rich, every strategy may seem to work for a short term or at start but they dont.

listen i don't want to fight with anyone so please don't post offensive replies.
everyone has their own experience and i'm sharing mine.
and btw if i wanted to increase my post count then i should 've posted a smiley or kind of thing not this reply.
just apply some brain......... if u r havin it or maybe you have sold it in an auction for a single dogecoin.
cuz by your reply you are not worth more than a dogecoin to me or maybe an earthcoin.

Tauja

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Quote from: FanEagle on July 03, 2015, 12:42:41 AM

Ok, i tested my method at roulette with doges,from 700 I've been able to work them until 10k,which is a great success for me.
When I started seeing my method to fail some I dashed out,so in conclusion any short term strategy similar to martingale may work, but never abuse it.

If want to use martiangle strategy how much to invest for get a profit
Because i use martiangle to bet in dice, but i loss.
Thanks man

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