Does martingale really works? - page 32.

Pony789

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 29, 2015, 12:09:06 AM

Quote from: panjul07 on June 28, 2015, 06:32:35 PM

Quote from: ivanst776 on June 28, 2015, 05:50:10 PM

Theoretically, if you have an infinitely large bankroll, you will consistently win money in the long run. Of course noone has a bankroll that big,

Infinite bankroll is not a guarantee that you will consistently win in the long run especially if you use martingale. And this has been discussed several times, so you need to check some previous posts about this.

do you mean that if you have for example 1,000,000BTC (i mil) and started from 0.00000001BTC (1 satoshi) you could lose at some point ?

p.s. i know the numbers are unreal but we are theory crafting about an infinite bankroll here.

Why not? Bets are independent of each other, that means the chance for you to lose the next bet is always the same no matter what your previous rolls are.
If you agree it is possible to get 20 losses in a row, you have to agree that it is possible to get 21 losses in a row and the chance is just halved, so on and so forth.

bitjamz

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if you have 1000btc and start very low it could work out but nobody play with these big amounts

arallmuus

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 29, 2015, 12:09:06 AM

do you mean that if you have for example 1,000,000BTC (i mil) and started from 0.00000001BTC (1 satoshi) you could lose at some point ?

Yes, for martingale to actually work there is two condition to be fulfill which is infinite bankroll and also infinite win amount (theoretically) because you will need infinite amount of losses as well and since you have infinite bankroll this means that you will never lose at all because you have infinite tries

Unfortunately both condition is unreal because you cant have an infinite bankroll and all sites have their maximum win amount . At one point if you keep on losing then you will hit the max win amount limitation on the site and you cant continue to double up your wager amount

For references, most sites has a max win of 20 BTC or so

chriswen

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Quote from: pooya87 on June 29, 2015, 12:09:06 AM

Quote from: panjul07 on June 28, 2015, 06:32:35 PM

Quote from: ivanst776 on June 28, 2015, 05:50:10 PM

Theoretically, if you have an infinitely large bankroll, you will consistently win money in the long run. Of course noone has a bankroll that big,

Infinite bankroll is not a guarantee that you will consistently win in the long run especially if you use martingale. And this has been discussed several times, so you need to check some previous posts about this.

do you mean that if you have for example 1,000,000BTC (i mil) and started from 0.00000001BTC (1 satoshi) you could lose at some point ?

p.s. i know the numbers are unreal but we are theory crafting about an infinite bankroll here.

Yes you could lose at some point. Also what's your goal? How much do you want to make?

pooya87

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Quote from: panjul07 on June 28, 2015, 06:32:35 PM

Quote from: ivanst776 on June 28, 2015, 05:50:10 PM

Theoretically, if you have an infinitely large bankroll, you will consistently win money in the long run. Of course noone has a bankroll that big,

Infinite bankroll is not a guarantee that you will consistently win in the long run especially if you use martingale. And this has been discussed several times, so you need to check some previous posts about this.

do you mean that if you have for example 1,000,000BTC (i mil) and started from 0.00000001BTC (1 satoshi) you could lose at some point ?

p.s. i know the numbers are unreal but we are theory crafting about an infinite bankroll here.

TigerTatas

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Example 2

Getting Jiggly wit it..

-TigerTatas

https://i.imgur.com/TdIfwC1.png

TigerTatas

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For fun, I decided to comment again on this thread.

I've read in the past that people recommend you create your own methods and set your own goals.

I'd like to introduce you to the first round results of the 'Jiggly Tata's' method. It is a variant of martingale that allows one to bet martingale style without the infinite bankroll problem. Check out the results below.

What's the goal? The goal is 100k.

Have fun guys!

-TigerTatas

Edit: Since I know several people will wonder how much I spent before I won... The total losses were just over 2 clam before I started betting the 20/bet. So Jiggly!

https://i.imgur.com/WonmrBj.png

panjul07

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Quote from: ivanst776 on June 28, 2015, 05:50:10 PM

Theoretically, if you have an infinitely large bankroll, you will consistently win money in the long run. Of course noone has a bankroll that big,

Infinite bankroll is not a guarantee that you will consistently win in the long run especially if you use martingale. And this has been discussed several times, so you need to check some previous posts about this.

ivanst776

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Theoretically, if you have an infinitely large bankroll, you will consistently win money in the long run. Of course noone has a bankroll that big,

GannickusX

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Quote from: arallmuus on June 24, 2015, 07:26:26 AM

Quote from: XinXan on June 23, 2015, 12:38:52 PM

experts dont ''guess'' on stock trading and when you dont need to guess you dont need to use silly strategies

In fact, martingale is being used in stock trading alot ( binary options to be precise ). Strategies aren't meant to make you "win" but it is to reduce your chance to "lose" . I don't see any reason on why not on using a strategy as it helps you reducing some chances for you to lose.

Quote from: ranlo on June 24, 2015, 02:32:15 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on June 20, 2015, 11:09:39 AM

These people that are under such delusion should get themselves educated.

Sorry but this isn't going to happen. Humans, for whatever reason (Internet?) have become more and more lazy and ignorant. People don't care to know about things anymore -- they formulate this false idea and then stick with it regardless of the facts. You're not going to change that -- people have been trying for many years. You just have to accept it and let them fail on their own.

This is most likely why people keep blaming the site when they lose I'd say. People tend to be ignorant for the fact , math in this case since we are dealing with numbers (speaking of provably fair) . Still I do think that it is best to have an EDU thread regarding things about provably fair mechanism, martingale and any other stuff that is related to that.

So if in the future there is someone asking about either martingale or blaming the site for his lost, this will save some time by just pointing him to the EDU thread instead of going through endless discussion (like this thread for example)

But if you have a +EV you should use the kelly criterion not martingale or any other silly method. Martingale is also used in gambling, that doesnt mean it works, strategies are meant to make you win, if you want a strategy just to lose less you have a problem

arallmuus

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Quote from: XinXan on June 23, 2015, 12:38:52 PM

experts dont ''guess'' on stock trading and when you dont need to guess you dont need to use silly strategies

In fact, martingale is being used in stock trading alot ( binary options to be precise ). Strategies aren't meant to make you "win" but it is to reduce your chance to "lose" . I don't see any reason on why not on using a strategy as it helps you reducing some chances for you to lose.

Quote from: ranlo on June 24, 2015, 02:32:15 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on June 20, 2015, 11:09:39 AM

These people that are under such delusion should get themselves educated.

Sorry but this isn't going to happen. Humans, for whatever reason (Internet?) have become more and more lazy and ignorant. People don't care to know about things anymore -- they formulate this false idea and then stick with it regardless of the facts. You're not going to change that -- people have been trying for many years. You just have to accept it and let them fail on their own.

This is most likely why people keep blaming the site when they lose I'd say. People tend to be ignorant for the fact , math in this case since we are dealing with numbers (speaking of provably fair) . Still I do think that it is best to have an EDU thread regarding things about provably fair mechanism, martingale and any other stuff that is related to that.

So if in the future there is someone asking about either martingale or blaming the site for his lost, this will save some time by just pointing him to the EDU thread instead of going through endless discussion (like this thread for example)

ranlo

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Quote from: arallmuus on June 20, 2015, 11:09:39 AM

These people that are under such delusion should get themselves educated.

Sorry but this isn't going to happen. Humans, for whatever reason (Internet?) have become more and more lazy and ignorant. People don't care to know about things anymore -- they formulate this false idea and then stick with it regardless of the facts. You're not going to change that -- people have been trying for many years. You just have to accept it and let them fail on their own.

XinXan

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Quote from: SyGambler on June 23, 2015, 12:05:05 PM

Quote from: XinXan on June 23, 2015, 11:27:53 AM

Quote from: adaseb on June 23, 2015, 10:00:23 AM

Martingale basically shouldn't be applied to anything where you had a negative house edge.

On stock trading, since you have a higher probability of actually winning in your favour you should use it there instead.

What? Why do you think you have higher chance of winning than loosing on stock trading? You dont, maybe the chances are close to 50:50 but definitely not higher on the win side besides with each trade you are paying a fee which doesnt help martingale at all and also even in stock trading you wont be able to double forever, even more most exchanges wont allow an infinite number of chances for doubling your trading lot and even if they did it would fail like it does in gambling

there are some experts and they have more than 50% chance of guessing right
but since most of these activities pays 180% and not 200%
that leads us again that martinagle is not fully useful anywhere and risks still involved when people use that

experts dont ''guess'' on stock trading and when you dont need to guess you dont need to use silly strategies, experts know what they are doing, stock trading is not gambling its more like sport betting, some people ''know'' more than others and they of course have more chances to win but they dont need to use martingale if they have a +EV, they should use kelly betting system in any case.

SyGambler

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guess who's back

Quote from: XinXan on June 23, 2015, 11:27:53 AM

Quote from: adaseb on June 23, 2015, 10:00:23 AM

Martingale basically shouldn't be applied to anything where you had a negative house edge.

On stock trading, since you have a higher probability of actually winning in your favour you should use it there instead.

What? Why do you think you have higher chance of winning than loosing on stock trading? You dont, maybe the chances are close to 50:50 but definitely not higher on the win side besides with each trade you are paying a fee which doesnt help martingale at all and also even in stock trading you wont be able to double forever, even more most exchanges wont allow an infinite number of chances for doubling your trading lot and even if they did it would fail like it does in gambling

there are some experts and they have more than 50% chance of guessing right
but since most of these activities pays 180% and not 200%
that leads us again that martinagle is not fully useful anywhere and risks still involved when people use that

Astargath

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Quote from: Malaki on June 23, 2015, 08:45:34 AM

Quote from: Hexcoin on June 23, 2015, 08:30:13 AM

Quote from: Malaki on June 23, 2015, 08:25:32 AM

well.. martingale works always but it depends on your balance and of course on gambling site

if you have good bankroll management it and play trusted Provably fair gambling site it will work Wink

but its always to invent some good your own strategy (depending on Site you play)

good luck with it mate

You are wrong. Martingale not always works, yes it works sometimes but when the long losing streak comes it will bust your bankroll for a few satoshi return by your basebet

i said martingale works not your bankroll is not enough

finally when keep doubling your bet i get profit and if u dont have that amount its not martingale system problem mate

its your bankroll prob or gambling site issues

system is simple after 100, 1000, 10000, or 100000 or even 10000000 try u will get back your full amount of bet + the amount of first bet

No strategy works, its an illusion when a strategy ''works'' but they are all the same as explained a few times, identically the same, you really have no better chances of profit or lower risk using any strategy, the more risk the more profit, the lower risk the lower the profit and in the end the numbers match, you cant beat math.

XinXan

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Quote from: adaseb on June 23, 2015, 10:00:23 AM

Martingale basically shouldn't be applied to anything where you had a negative house edge.

On stock trading, since you have a higher probability of actually winning in your favour you should use it there instead.

What? Why do you think you have higher chance of winning than loosing on stock trading? You dont, maybe the chances are close to 50:50 but definitely not higher on the win side besides with each trade you are paying a fee which doesnt help martingale at all and also even in stock trading you wont be able to double forever, even more most exchanges wont allow an infinite number of chances for doubling your trading lot and even if they did it would fail like it does in gambling

adaseb

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Martingale basically shouldn't be applied to anything where you had a negative house edge.

On stock trading, since you have a higher probability of actually winning in your favour you should use it there instead.

Havelivi

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Quote from: Malaki on June 23, 2015, 08:45:34 AM

Quote from: Hexcoin on June 23, 2015, 08:30:13 AM

Quote from: Malaki on June 23, 2015, 08:25:32 AM

well.. martingale works always but it depends on your balance and of course on gambling site

if you have good bankroll management it and play trusted Provably fair gambling site it will work Wink

but its always to invent some good your own strategy (depending on Site you play)

good luck with it mate

You are wrong. Martingale not always works, yes it works sometimes but when the long losing streak comes it will bust your bankroll for a few satoshi return by your basebet

i said martingale works not your bankroll is not enough

finally when keep doubling your bet i get profit and if u dont have that amount its not martingale system problem mate

its your bankroll prob or gambling site issues

system is simple after 100, 1000, 10000, or 100000 or even 10000000 try u will get back your full amount of bet + the amount of first bet

As i feel you get started gambling few days ago and yet you had not met the losing streak at any gambling site, that is why you are thinking like martingale works if that strategy is working for you than i will say that you are lucky player till now but when you will get a losing streak than you will know you was wrong about this strategy.

the_reprobate

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Quote from: arallmuus on June 20, 2015, 07:48:43 AM

Quote from: GiocareHost on June 20, 2015, 07:36:40 AM

changing seeds does help.I used to change it after every 20~30 bets.It minimized the lose!

Such delusion is pretty common around here. You should realize and aware that changing seed isnt changing the outcome for you to win or to lose. It only changes the outcome number for the roll . This outcome is also totally random which means that it depends on what you choose , either Low or High

i.e Server seed + your seed hash = Number 57.67

If you change your seed hash it will resulted in a random number instead of 57.67 , lets say that the number generated will be 78.93 which means that this bet is a lost as well if you choose Low instead of High

let them believe in what they want.. it was been explained many times but i guess they are not present in that time

Hexcoin

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Quote from: Malaki on June 23, 2015, 08:45:34 AM

Quote from: Hexcoin on June 23, 2015, 08:30:13 AM

Quote from: Malaki on June 23, 2015, 08:25:32 AM

well.. martingale works always but it depends on your balance and of course on gambling site

if you have good bankroll management it and play trusted Provably fair gambling site it will work Wink

but its always to invent some good your own strategy (depending on Site you play)

good luck with it mate

You are wrong. Martingale not always works, yes it works sometimes but when the long losing streak comes it will bust your bankroll for a few satoshi return by your basebet

i said martingale works not your bankroll is not enough

finally when keep doubling your bet i get profit and if u dont have that amount its not martingale system problem mate

its your bankroll prob or gambling site issues

system is simple after 100, 1000, 10000, or 100000 or even 10000000 try u will get back your full amount of bet + the amount of first bet

So you mean martingale that can cover a really long streak? If you do the computation for lets say 1 satoshi base bet you will need 5.37btc to cover atleast 30 loses in a row. And thinking you have 5btc+ as your bankroll, would you think to start with 1 satoshi base bet just to be safe in less 30 loses in a row?

30 loses in a row is not imposible

Topic: Does martingale really works? - page 32. (Read 123317 times)