Does martingale really works? - page 88.

boumalo

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Quote from: leex1528 on June 14, 2014, 11:13:57 AM

We already know Martingale is the best strategy there is, but like every other strat, you will lose eventually...its just a matter of knowing when to quit

You can't know when to quit

Quote from: PacoMartin on June 14, 2014, 12:29:37 PM

Quote from: chaosPT on June 14, 2014, 04:56:13 AM

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

Here is a post from December 2013. It estimates Nakowa as having won 11,000 BTC in September, but now in December he lost 2300BTC
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1suwzo/bitcoin_casino_justdice_highroller_nakowa_loses/

Here is a post from September 2013 from Nakowa himself. At this point he estimates that he was up 6,000BTC. He was upset because JD lowered the maximum bet from 1% of Bank to .25% of Bank.
http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

JD has raised the max bet to .50% of Bank today.

To the best of knowledge, the only real reason to play under different names is so that the casino isn't spooked and lowers the maximum bet. Other than that, I can't see any real advantage.

The owners of the brick and mortar casino, the Golden Nugget, in 2004 struggled with this same problem very publicly as they were being filmed for a reality show by the creator of Survivor. They kept their limits very high when they took over as owners to attract the whales, but then one got lucky after they were operating for 9 or 10 months. The whale took the casino for $8.5 million in two weeks. He then packed his bags and lost it again at another casino. Statistically you would eventually make the money back, but you still have to meet the loans by investors. The owners reluctantly had to cut back their maximum bet.

Players like to play under different names to "change their luck" as well

MoneyGod

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Quote from: leex1528 on June 14, 2014, 11:13:57 AM

We already know Martingale is the best strategy there is, but like every other strat, you will lose eventually...its just a matter of knowing when to quit

I agree every method can work but best thing is if you are winning then you have to take time or leave for some time its best and really works for any one

PacoMartin

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Quote from: chaosPT on June 14, 2014, 04:56:13 AM

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

Here is a post from December 2013. It estimates Nakowa as having won 11,000 BTC in September, but now in December he lost 2300BTC
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1suwzo/bitcoin_casino_justdice_highroller_nakowa_loses/

Here is a post from September 2013 from Nakowa himself. At this point he estimates that he was up 6,000BTC. He was upset because JD lowered the maximum bet from 1% of Bank to .25% of Bank.
http://www.reddit.com/r/AMA/comments/1my8fc/im_the_whale_on_justdice_id_love_to_answer/

JD has raised the max bet to .50% of Bank today.

To the best of knowledge, the only real reason to play under different names is so that the casino isn't spooked and lowers the maximum bet. Other than that, I can't see any real advantage.

The owners of the brick and mortar casino, the Golden Nugget, in 2004 struggled with this same problem very publicly as they were being filmed for a reality show by the creator of Survivor. They kept their limits very high when they took over as owners to attract the whales, but then one got lucky after they were operating for 9 or 10 months. The whale took the casino for $8.5 million in two weeks. He then packed his bags and lost it again at another casino. Statistically you would eventually make the money back, but you still have to meet the loans by investors. The owners reluctantly had to cut back their maximum bet.

leex1528

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We already know Martingale is the best strategy there is, but like every other strat, you will lose eventually...its just a matter of knowing when to quit

PacoMartin

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Quote from: chaosPT on June 14, 2014, 04:55:18 AM

I have read a lot about martingale you will end up losing no matter what in 500k hands

ussually burst at 23x losing streak

https://just-dice.com/Just%20Dice%20Streak%20Bet.pdf

What you read is wrong. We wrote this paper to show people how to do this calculation.

boumalo

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Quote from: Light on June 14, 2014, 04:45:37 AM

Your have to ask doog for graphs regarding the accounts most I. Profit but the main one that comes to mind from last year was Nakowa. I think he managed to get up a couple of thousand at his peak but if I remember properly he left eventually with a couple of hundred if doog's sleuthing is right. Don't quote me though, you'd get more reliable information googling Nakowa.

Quote from: chaosPT on June 14, 2014, 04:56:13 AM

Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

dooglus estimates Nakowa's winnings @ 10k BTC :

Quote from: dooglus on June 13, 2014, 03:28:02 PM

I don't have exact numbers, because I don't know for sure which accounts were his. But I estimate that he risked 2.5 million BTC and won 10k BTC. The 2.5 million he risked should have netted the house 25k BTC.

So the current profit is 35k BTC short of where it should be, due to the BTC he won (10k) and the BTC he should have lost and didn't (25k).

chaosPT

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Yes , thats what i want to know that nakowa actually won how much from JD and behind him who win the most ?

chaosPT

hero member

Activity: 896

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I have read a lot about martingale you will end up losing no matter what in 500k hands

ussually burst at 23x losing streak

Light

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Circa 2010

Your have to ask doog for graphs regarding the accounts most I. Profit but the main one that comes to mind from last year was Nakowa. I think he managed to get up a couple of thousand at his peak but if I remember properly he left eventually with a couple of hundred if doog's sleuthing is right. Don't quote me though, you'd get more reliable information googling Nakowa.

chaosPT

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Quote from: PacoMartin on June 14, 2014, 03:45:00 AM

Quote from: Wendigo on June 14, 2014, 02:14:33 AM

Wow Just-Dice bankroll is 50 000 BTC ?

I think you misunderstand. The bank is 50,000 BTC which is crowdfunded. The total amount gambled in the first year is 5.3 million BTC. Since the house edge is 1% you would expect the profit would be 53K BTC, but since the whale smashed the bank last year it was only 18.6K BTC.

Theoretically if the investors all withdrew the operators of the website would make 10% or 1860 BTC. Now that is gross, so that also pays for server maintenance, electricity and other operational expense. The fast rising value of the BTC makes that a good business, but subject to the volatility of the Bitcoin and the danger of another lucky whale. The operators can't bet as it would potentially invite charges of fraud.

I would call it a very good business bordering on a great business. But you are talking as if the person earned 50 000 BTC outright in a year.

The owner dooglus was sweating a 50 BTC proposition bet that he made.

How much does the whale whack away last year ?

PacoMartin

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Quote from: Wendigo on June 14, 2014, 02:14:33 AM

Wow Just-Dice bankroll is 50 000 BTC ?

I think you misunderstand. The bank is 50,000 BTC which is crowdfunded. The total amount gambled in the first year is 5.3 million BTC. Since the house edge is 1% you would expect the profit would be 53K BTC, but since the whale smashed the bank last year it was only 18.6K BTC.

Theoretically if the investors all withdrew the operators of the website would make 10% or 1860 BTC. Now that is gross, so that also pays for server maintenance, electricity and other operational expense. The fast rising value of the BTC makes that a good business, but subject to the volatility of the Bitcoin and the danger of another lucky whale. The operators can't bet as it would potentially invite charges of fraud.

I would call it a very good business bordering on a great business. But you are talking as if the person earned 50 000 BTC outright in a year.

The owner dooglus was sweating a 50 BTC proposition bet that he made.

PacoMartin

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Quote from: dooglus on June 14, 2014, 01:01:10 AM

The person placing the bets can simply agree to only place N bets per week, and never 'randomize' the seeds. Then each week he publishes his N betids, and all participants can look up the rolls on the site and see that the seed hash is the same as it should be, and that the 'nonce' values are consecutive.

If there are any gaps in the nonce sequence then he's probably hiding a big win from you.

You could be the patron saint of the working class, by giving them a fair game without concerns about cheating colleagues or having half their money stolen by rapacious lottery operators. On the other hand you would probably get blamed for bitcoin fluctuations, general concerns about integrity with online gaming, etc.

Do you have any estimate on how many coins Nawaka brought to the table. I can see a lot of difficulty making that calculation, but I was curious. Did he bring 10K coins to the table to win 10K coins?

Wendigo

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Wow Just-Dice bankroll is 50 000 BTC ? Do you even pay any taxes on that?

PacoMartin

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Quote from: holliehardballer2269 on June 14, 2014, 01:21:14 AM

Quote from: badjacks99 on May 15, 2014, 02:15:38 PM

I would say martainfail for the most part.

If you think about it the question "What is the average number of plays before you get a string of losses of some length?" is a perfectly well defined question with a specific answer.

If you toss a coin until you lose, then on average you will toss it 2 times.
In Vector notation that is the dot product <1,2,3,4,...> * < 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/16, ... > = 2

If you toss a coin until you lose two times in a row, then on average you will toss it 6 times.

If you toss a coin until you lose six times in a row, then on average you will toss it ? times.

If you don't know how to do this problem, then read the paper dooglus and I wrote. Please comment
https://just-dice.com/Just%20Dice%20Streak%20Bet.pdf

holliehardballer2269

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Quote from: badjacks99 on May 15, 2014, 02:15:38 PM

I would say martainfail for the most part. Ive had some good sessions where i have made some profit and i think the key is to stop when your ahead. It only takes one terrible streak to lose everything which is pretty inevitable. I still use that mainly when dicing and playing roulette but it certainly isnt foolproof. Thats my 2 cents.

PacoMartin

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Quote from: kuverty on June 13, 2014, 10:58:16 PM

Surely. But unfounded magical beliefs about the game are not really good for a gambler. And mostly it is just ignorance anyway that leads to those beliefs. Nothing wrong with that per se, no one here is completely rational and we all have our strange beliefs and biases whether we choose to accept it or not.

http://www.amazon.com/Roll-Bones-The-History-Gambling/dp/1592402089
You might want to grab a copy of Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling

You may have heard of the curse put on the Presidency by Tecumseh, the Indian chief whose brother was killed in the Battle of Tippecanoe. The presidents who won the the 1840,1860,1880,1900,1920, 1940, and 1960 elections all died in office although not necessarily in that term (with one president dying in office not elected in a zero year). People ask "What is the chance of that happening randomly?". They conclude that it is impossibly low, and must be supernatural.

The story continues with Ronald Reagan being shot, and receiving wounds that would have killed a man in 1840. It would seem that this curse cannot upgrade itself to medical advances.

forever21

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i wouldnt trust on a martingale method its a part of gambling anyway you are also risking your money on it or maybe you can trust it but the system of the betting site/casino is really unpredictable

dooglus

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Quote from: PacoMartin on June 13, 2014, 09:18:17 PM

If they agree on a time when the bets will be placed, then the documentation will have the timestamp, and it won't be possible to cheat. Plus you can easily produce the entire history of bets under a name, and so you have a record of all bets. The person placing the bets can't hide a win, and simply do another bet at a later time.

The person placing the bets can simply agree to only place N bets per week, and never 'randomize' the seeds. Then each week he publishes his N betids, and all participants can look up the rolls on the site and see that the seed hash is the same as it should be, and that the 'nonce' values are consecutive.

If there are any gaps in the nonce sequence then he's probably hiding a big win from you.

kuverty

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Quote from: PacoMartin on June 13, 2014, 10:38:49 PM

Quote from: kuverty on June 13, 2014, 07:59:24 PM

...there usually there are some magical beliefs involved.

Belief in divine intervention and magic in unlikely streaks is a pervasive part of all of human culture. You can show thousands of writings and stories. The Pythagoreans who invented the famous triangle theorem were a religious group.

Surely. But unfounded magical beliefs about the game are not really good for a gambler. And mostly it is just ignorance anyway that leads to those beliefs. Nothing wrong with that per se, no one here is completely rational and we all have our strange beliefs and biases whether we choose to accept it or not.

PacoMartin

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Quote from: kuverty on June 13, 2014, 07:59:24 PM

...there usually there are some magical beliefs involved.

Belief in divine intervention and magic in unlikely streaks is a pervasive part of all of human culture. You can show thousands of writings and stories. The Pythagoreans who invented the famous triangle theorem were a religious group.

==================
Did I ever tell you I've been struck by lightning seven times?
Once, when I was fixing a leak on the roof.
Once, when I was crossing the road to get the mail...

Did I ever tell you I was struck by lightning seven times?
Once, when I was in a field tending to my cows.

Did I ever tell you I've been struck by lightning seven times?
Once I was sitting in my truck listening to the radio.

Did I ever tell you I was struck by lightning seven different times?
Once, I was walking my dog along a country road.

I'm blind in the one eye...
I can't hardly hear...
I get twitches and shakes out of nowhere...
I lose my line of thought...
but you know what...
God, for some reason, keeps on sending me a wake-up...
It's His way of reminding me I'm lucky to be alive...
(sniffs the air) Storm's comin'.

"Along the way you bump into people who make a dent on your life...
Some people... get struck by lightning..."
"Some are born to sit by a river."
- THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

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